LIKE A KILLER OCTOPUS UNRAVELLING

KEVIN BECK SEES AN IMPENDING GLOBAL ECONOMIC CALAMITY IN 2008

A bubble on asset values particularly housing in Australia creating a crisis in 2018




Another public interest information web site on the

Mosaic Portal Network

created by

Kevin Beck




Get your daily banking news here








Article Archives
About governments, corporations, people and events, research and ideas
the evangelical web


A Selection of International Articles From Eldis





2008: The USA will keep printing money to avoid defaulting on its debt.
A dance of fiscal death with China.


In many respects the US generally has its head in the sand, unable to comprehend how the capital engine of the world came to this situation. The US debt is now almost level with its gross national product. The USA is owned by China, South Korea and some other nations. It is inextricably locked, with China, in a dance of fiscal death. China needs the US consumer to buy but the rapacious nature of US capitalism delivers poverty to the greater number of people in the USA . Once it was thought that the secret to success was a balance between farm and manufacturing. However stupid policies and greed, and an addiction to froth, and bubble, moved the USA and other places like Ireland, to a technology dream. Boxes that offer a feckless, and false, set of beliefs and escapism. Apple, and Microsoft, along with other questionable enterprises (what do they actually add to society?) have become the greatest companies in the world. This is a sure way to economic destruction and still the yanks do not get it. Other nations have filled the US, Australian and western world, food bowls and supply the manufactured goods. They buy the quarried products of countries like Australia, Africa and South America, to fuel this replacement. There is nowhere left to go for the USA, ICeland, Ireland and the United Kingdom among others.

Bloomberg Television interviews the stars of corporations, and economies, and most talk of returning to growth. The fallacy of endless growth. They pick small numbers such as 3% growth and inflate these as signs of wonder and success. They throw around billions as if they are ten dollar bills. The populations of nations have become innured to big numbers except when those big numbers are their losses.

The western world's concept of growth relies upon poor people becoming richer and consuming more of their goods and supplying them with cheap shit. It relies upon China, and India, and other developing nations, using the savings of the greater number of their poor citizens to fund the western economies ad decisions of their governments. Thus Chinese labourers, earning $US6.00 per week, save $US2.00, and there being many of them, the savings pile grows. The Japanese workers have saved large parts of their income and now their governments rely upon them. The dictator states (such as China) use this money, held in its banks, to buy up things and to build. But the dream has faltered and the golden age has come to a grinding crunch. China must invest in its own rural areas as discontent grows. 120,000 factorues have closed and 10% of the population is unemployed, though the Chinese government, known for its lies and distortions, says that unemployment is a little over 5%. Disagree and they will lock you up. China is becoming aggressive wanting to own rather than purchase he outputs. It has executives from foriegn companies in gaol. The government took over a private steel mill because they did not like the way it was being run. So what can this tell us?

In the USA an octopussy crisis is rolling across the American dream crushing the breath, and life, out of it. What is the real USA unemployment range? Is it 8% and up to 75% or more in some locations? In Las Vegas unemployment creeps towards 20% as the casino economy, and the glamour of get rich quick, a valium induced fantasy, dies. Avidly people watch the stock exhange for signs and meaning. The false God of wealth creation and voodoo economics. The global casino has risen to a status that belies reality. Any movement up or down is read as gospel proof of something.

It is inevitable that the US will default on its debt. But what form will that take? Continuing to print money pushing the Australian dollar above parity to something like a $US1.05 - $US1.10 destroying our exports along the upward path. Will it be a restructuring of debt, an inflation correction or a mix of deliberate, and unfortunate, outcomes? When that default occurs what effects will there be? In Australia the dollar's value destroys the value of our quarries, the price of houses is unsustainable and yet Australian state governments continue to rape in political self interest. Governments and local councils add $A85,000 to the price of a block of land. The public services, of the states are callowed, and will not challenge the political fools and thieves. They will not decline to act immporally and unethically and serve without question. In Victoria the police deaprtment blows a casual $A40,000,000 on infornmation technology and gross mismanagement. The Police Commissioner responds that he ahs a "new policy to go around the draft policy" but cannot implement it until the SSA has a look at the whole state system of ppolicies within policies. It is also a nomenclature exercise, of the meaning of "command and control". These are his words, in response to many challenges faced in the past ear, not mine. It is logical, and inevitable, that housing prices will collapse dramatically in Australia. Not by a few percent but by ten, twenty and up to fifty percent in many places. No one believes this for reasons I have not yet worked out. Apparently in our cultural belief of where Australia is and is going and the nature of ego, people can gamble with rates and the future sustaining their lifestyle, and careers, whilst applying 40% of their income, and more, to housing needs. This is quite simply a dangerous, and unrealistic, belief.

The social engineers are out in force. They are the fairy dust, fringe dwellers, with minimal grasp of reality and a lack of any innovative thinking, who harp. They continually propose that there should be more public housing and yet when built this is often too expensive and as demonstrated by the corrupt NSW government can be a target for revenue grabbing. Federal Minister Tanya Pliebersek is working on these hackneyed concepts which have never delivered benefits. Everything is based on a government subsidy of some form. because people are either too lazy, or incapable, of educating themselves they should be maintained by governments. Add in Rudd's cliamte change agenda driven also by the fairy dust merchants and watch our economy being ripped apart.

Soon China will cut itself lose from the fiscal dance of death with the USA and then the world will really experience a global financial crisis. The paucity, and embedded fantasy, of the economic and financial model, with its reliance on stock trades and smart manoeuveres (like buy outs and take overs in lieu of actually creating anything extra) along with world trade - balancing system - is clearly shown when the rich nations have to rely upon the poor people of India, China, and Indonesia, to save their hides. The US administration is comforted by China's investment in domestic demand and its ambitious reform agenda. Asia is leading the gobal economy and according to Tim Geitner this is going to be fabulous for the USA. How so and when has Tim Geitner ever been right? Peraps we should read about Henry Ford's Brazilian utopian dream to gain an inkling of what occurs when such assumptions are made by the self annointed masters of the universe.



Australia, Pollyanna and Labor Party


Off we rush for the crisis is over according to the Labor government. Australia missed the recession. Is this true? People are gearing up to spend at Christmas and give their credit cards a trashing. Credit cards that are already a burden on the natoon. They are buying over priced houses, fulled by a silly government policy of giving handfuls of money. The federal government crowed that it would increase housing stock budgetting hundreds of millions. After a year it has built seventy five houses. Minsiter Pliebersek says that 10,000 dilapidated accommodations have been returned to the hosuing stock. The governments are always quick to have a stretch of the imagination and abit of a tweek at the truth. Nothing is ever as it seems with the modern (ethically challenged) politician. Though it is probably not Ms Pliebersek's fault that the states and territory governments and public services are inept and unable to achieve a modicum of success and nation building. State and local governments are legalised theives. They are stifling housing development and keeping prices high through inadequate supply due to their greed and corruption. Their charges can add tens of thousands of dolars if not hundeds of thousands to blocks of land in estates. They are hopeless at providing economic infrastructure and more attuned to self interest and misleading conduct.

How high can house prices and rents go? When is it that the average person can no longer afford to be a part of this fiscal madness?

If the nation is solid why have four private educatioon facilities (2 in Melbourne and 2 in Sydney) gone belly up like a number of others? Why is small business struggling with insolvency rising? Are bad debts going down or up? Are people paying their bills on time, in advance or later?

" Australian firms are hurting each other and setting themselves up to be locked out of the credit market or to face action from the tax office as a result of the way they are prioritising payments. A new study released today by Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) reveals that 66 percent of firms are prepared to miss supplier payments if they are unable to pay all their accounts and a further 15 percent are prepared to a miss a tax payment. Yet failing to pay these bills could leave Australian firms unable to access credit and facing penalties from the tax department as financial institutions refuse loans to firms holding a tax debt and credit providers continue their stringent focus on trade reference checks as part of the credit assessment process. The study also reveals that many firms are unaware of the implications of paying late on their ability to access credit, with close to two thirds indicating that if they knew late payments would detrimentally impact their credit standing they would be more likely to pay on time." (source: Dun and BRADSTREET, 28 October 2009: http://dnb.com.au/)

" Insolvency data shows small businesses are still hanging on, Friday, 05 June 2009 10:50 James Thomson The number of companies falling into administration continues to rise sharply in 2009, but insolvency experts say struggling small businesses appear to be hanging on despite the downturn. New figures from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission show 810 companies entered external administration in April 2009, up sharply from the figure of 680 recorded in April 2008, but down 25% from the 1,095 companies who fell into administration in March." (source: Smart Company: http://www.smartcompany.com.au/)

"Global debtor finance provider, Bibby Financial Services , believes the seeds are now being sown for a bitter harvest of small business insolvencies later this year. While the Reserve Bank held interest rates unchanged this month, other developments affecting small business lead us to believe Australia will see business insolvencies climb to a record later this year, Bibby Financial Services Managing Director, Greg Charlwood, says. The average time business debts remain unpaid by large companies and government organisations is now over 60 days, more than twice the normal 30 days and according to Dunn & Bradstreet, the highest since 2001. The longer that companies have to wait for payment, the higher the strain on their cash flow, Greg Charlwood said, adding that the statistics indicate larger businesses are taking longer to pay their debts than small and mid-size companies, putting smaller business under greater pressure. It appears this situation is getting worse, rather than better, so we will see a greater rise in small business insolvencies later this year as a result. Companies are going into administration at the rate of around 700 a month at present “ a near record level. We expect this will climb above last years peak of 747 in coming months because of the increasing pressure on small companies, Greg Charlwood said." (Source: Greg Charlwood, Bibby Financial Services, http://www.ferret.com.au/)

The Rudd labor government bought a respite at a cost of billions funnelling money into consumer's pockets and into small construction and allied firms, and the Reserve Bank kept interest rates low. The money for cionsumers is all gone, other funds such as insulation subsidies have been misused and a large segment of money has been stolen. Thus reducing its impact. Intrest rates are rising and those who bought over priced houses will suffer in 2010. Unemployment appears to be static but there is a hidden under employment and many people have taken reduced hours and pay cuts to keep their jobs. Despite all of this many average Australians live in a pollyanna world of make believe. Like sheep they bleat the common refrain and gullibly swallow the majority line.

Investment financial advisers are reccommending that I reduce my cash holdings and move that money into equities. Thye too are sheep following the trens and they totally failed to predict or comprehend the diaster that confonted them in 2008. Now they would have me believe that they know what they are doing. I am told that they are relying upon Standard and Poors, which they describe as the world lading ratings agency. Is this the one that suggested we all but the sliced and diced mortgages? The US government's debt appraches the value of their GDP. What if there was a default? Apparently we can rely on China and India to keep Australia afloat and we are again in a resources boom. Never mind that we do not have the capacity to support the boom, another failure by state governments. They just want the royalties to squander on their personal exploits and ideas. When the money runs out they will sell assets (NSW and Queensland) and the cycle of destruction will go on. labor tell us they know how to manage things, the liberals tell us the same stories. They are in their own world of pollyanna fantasy as to their capabilities.



Whoops Did We Crow Too Soon in Australia!

The fallacy of growth will hit us in 2010 - 2017
Commodity prices rise astronomically, then fall shaprply but not all the way back.
The mininsg boom ends in 2012 - 2103.
Howver for now, Sunday 6th September 2009 and Wayne Swan, Treasurer, talks of "when Australia returns to trend growth". What does that mean? 3%? How is growth measured, in Wayne's world, by Gross Domestic Product? The modern day economic management practice is to assume that economies will grow endlessly but there will be "bumps along the way". This growth will be fueled by (a) ever extended consumer demand arising from increases in wages and salaries, (b) the insatiable demand from emerging economies (particularly India and China) as they move from disadvantage to some sort of wealth.

Mr Swan is euphoric, as the media runs headlines that we are the world leading economy. This is rightly so under the current thinking of the fiscal kings. We are in the "medium and long term fiscal programme" delivered by Mr Rudd and Mr Swan. Aks Mr Swan a difficult question, such as how is giving cash away an investment in our future? What happnes when the cash runs out and he wants to take the money back in the form of taxes and charges? He will not answer but will talk of the "mediun and long term fiscal measures" without ever going deeper. The problem for Australia is that the presumptions under which he, Treasury and the government overall, frames policy and action, are based, to my thinking, on a number of assumptions and a critical flaw. The fallacy of growth.




Extract: "Bitter climate truths are fundamentally bitter cultural truths. Endless growth is an impossibility in the physical world, always”but always”ending in overshot and collapse. Collapse: with a bang or a whimper, most likely both. We are already witnessing it, whether we choose to acknowledge it or not. Because of this civilizations obsession with growth, its demise is 85 percent predictable. We simply cannot go on living this way. Our version of life on earth has come to an end. Moreover, there are no free market or economic solutions. And since corporations must have physically impossible endless growth in order to survive, corporate social responsibility is a myth. The only socially responsible act that corporations can take is to dissolve....

(continuing extract:) And here, in a footnote, are his two fallacies very simply put. Endless (exponential) growth is an impossibility in a finite physical system (planet earth)

To take the second error first. The claim that the earth is a finite physical system is as lunatic as the creationists' argument that evolution cannot have happened because of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. For the earth is, of course, not a closed or finite system. We have a huge influx of energy into the earth each and every moment of every day. We also expect that influx to continue for the next 4 billion years or so. If you (carefully now!) look up into the sky during the day you will see the source of that energy: we generally call it "The Sun".

The first error is a tad more complex. The statement "endless physical growth is impossible in a finite physical system" is of course true. The statement "endless economic growth is impossible in a finite physical system" would only be true if economic growth were in fact physical growth. Which, sadly for the argument, it isn't. We measure economic growth by some variant of Gross Domestic Product (there are others, GNP, NNP and others, but the differences between them do not change this point), the GDP that gets splashed all over the newspapers every three months. We often also refine it a little to refer to GDP per capita, as that gives us an idea of how much economic activity there is per person, not just in the country. GDP however does not measure the amount of stuff we make. Nor does it measure the amount of resources we use to make our stuff. It measures the the amount of value we add in the economy." (Source: The fallacy of Adam D Sachs August 25, 6:36 AMPage One ExaminerTim Worstall, http://www.examiner.com/)


(Extract: "Growth in GNP should cease when decreasing marginal benefits become equal to increasing marginal costs. But there is no statistical series that attempts to measure the cost of GNP. This is growth mania, literally not counting the costs of growth. But the situation is even worse. We take the real costs of increasing GNP as measured by the defensive expenditures incurred to protect ourselves from the unwanted side effects of production and add these expenditures to GNP rather than subtract them. We count real costs as benefits. This is hypergrowthmania. Obviously, we should keep separate accounts of costs and benefits. But to do this would make it clear that beyond some point zero growth would be optimal, at least in the short run. Such an admission is inconvenient to the ideology of growth, which quite transcends the ordinary logic of elementary economics. More precisely, it is good growthmanship strategy to admit the theoretical existence of such a point way out in the future, but somehow it must always be thought of as far away. The ideological reasons for this are clear and have to do with the problem of distribution of output in an economy in which ownership of land and capital is highly concentrated and embodies laborsaving technology. Full employment at a living wage requires high aggregate demand, which requires high net investment to offset the large savings made possible by concentrated income. High net investment signifies rapid growth." (Source: STEADY-STATE ECONOMICS, By Herman Daly, Chapter 5: A Catechism of Growth Fallacies, The part played by orthodox economists, whose common sense has been insufficient to check their faulty logic, has been disastrous to the latest act. J. M. Keynes (1936), http://dieoff.org/page88.htm)

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia implies that Australia is looking quite rosy and weathering the global financial recession. They never mention recession here. The Reserve Bank, like the Australian government Treasury Department, failed to perceive what was coming some time back and now they are having another euphoric stab at predicting, guessing and soothsaying.

"...recall the events that led to the crisis on Wall Street. Think of the legions of bankers who who were paid enormous sums for creating products that supposedly removed the risk from financial transactions, yet they left the worst mess the world has seen in 80 years. So long as the reward system was tailored to the production of ever more exotic products, the bankers obliged by churning them out in increasingly larger numbers. With hindsight, this proved to be a disaster." (Source:The fallacy of growth at all costs (part three) Thursday, 21 May 2009, 12:00 pm, Rajiv Chaudhry theonlinecitizen.com/2009)

According to Australia's "rigged unemployment statistics" we are have about 7% out of work. This is not simply a misrepresentation to the gullible, it is an unethical, but common, practice of the federal government. Every government, labor amd liberal, lies about unemployment. The level of unemployment varies dramatically across Australia. The national average is stated to be the figure above. Unemployent ranges between 3% and 40% (and higher, up to 70% - 90%!) depending on which region. Average unemployment for the nation is really above 10% but the government does not want this truth reinforced. It is demographically (by age) in a range of 10% to 30%. Lies, lies and more lies. The Rudd labor governmeht strategy, by those before it is to ficus on shallow, short term programmes,w hich place people into low level and low skilled jobs in fluffy parts of the economy. They then claim success. There is no linkage of government training to life long, deeper learning. In this they are myopic and short term ficused. There is no education revolution in Australia.

There is a sheep like assumption, and embrace of falsehoods and fallacies, optimism in the extreme, that Australia is somehow insulated and going to get away with having the cake and eating it too. Saved by Kevin Rudd's quick economic thinking and wayne Swan's daring audacity in the face of ridicule. The opposition under former merchant banker, Malcolm Turnbull, roll out the same, lame propehcies baseed on their own fallacies and framing of history to suit.

There are however some hometruths. Debt for each Australian consumer, partivularly in the middle income sector, is way too high. The more gulible in our society have rushed in and bought over priced dwellings and embraced the cash handout. Internationally there will be a crisis in 2009 - 2010. In the US somewhere between 400 and 1,400 small to medium banks, and financial cooperatives, are going to fail. A large number of banks and cooperatives will fail in Europe. What effect will this have on Australia and the world? In China, the engined room of saving grace, local government is debt burdened. The global bond market cannot sustain the flood of issuance and countries like the US are printing money. According to the experts the stock market is the indicator of ecomomic health and future calm. This is quite simply a narrow and optimistic view of what is really going on. The slide is coming and the debt will crush the unwary as unemployment rises across Australia. Again they have got it wrong. It is however immaterial because the system is designed to maintain the power collective's self interest and position whilst the nation pays the bill for their ignorance and performance. What will happen? I have no idea.


AUSTRALIA LOOKING ROSY - Really?
AMERICA ON THE MEND, Really?
CHINA THE SAVIOUR - Really?
Hysterical laughter, and relief, as a statistical movement of 0.4% in some magic formula causes elation and heralds recovery. Australia has dodged the bullet of recession by 0.000001%, a marvel of political engineering. Housing values are rocketing by 1% - 3% and there are high impacting intrest and stock moves of 1%. This is the hyperbole and tendency to overstatement exhibited in media and reportage, political spin and diatribe that insults the intelligence of many. We see it also in every day lanuguage of the cognitively challenged - awesome, fantastic, fully sick.

Reality is that the US administration has bet 80% of the nation's GDP into saving the bacon of Wall Street and the high flyers. The accounting rules for banks, and others, have been altered to take the toxic assets off the front cover of the books, and has put them where? In the back room out of sight. They are still there. The heady profits of banks being published, in the USA, are false. The bonuses are paid whether performance is good, bad or indifferent. Fanny Mae, et al, are pouring billions down the drain every day to try and keep nine million (9,000,000,000) people in their houses. There is no rebound or recovery, since the system itself is ethically and morally bankrupt. It is broken. In China, local government is so leveraged that in some cases it cannot pay the interest on the debt owed and the Chines government is the guarantor. Infrastructure and asset bubbles appear and there is social upheaval requiring a crack down. China swings from disaster to disaster, behind a silk curtain. In Europe the banks are largely insolvent and unemployment is on the rise as in America and Australia despite the manipulation of statistics to imply otherwise.

Here in Australia, according to lavish and exultant reporting, the banking, and financial, system was saved. By good managemet and government policy? Perhaps. But what of the proposition that we do not have a large merchant banking sector and an equivalent Wall Street. Australians are still raped by excessive bank charges, and fees, and by the avaricious across many sectors. Our grocery prices, and other charges, are amongst the highest in the world and our utility fees (water, electricity, telecommunications and others) are about to rocket to the moon. Our governments are mired in corrupt, and corroded, practice and behaviour along with political policy and corporate decision makers who have trouble seeing beyond their front doors. We are exuberant.



STITCHED UP IN A BRILLIANT PLAY

The Australian government has been conned by the big Australian energy companies such as the electricity generators, and coal miners, in the Latrobe Valley, Victoria Australia and the big consumers of electricity. The generators, bordering on being broke, with limited commercial life cannot believe their luck. The Rudd government will hand them free permits, trading licences, a casino for carbon credits where gaming can be the call of play and a thousand justifications for price rises. Well done Prime Minister Rudd, Ministers Penny Wong and Peter Garrett. Come in suckers.


WAKE IN FRIGHT

THE SECOND PHASE OF RECESSION TO HIT AUSTRALIA PREDICTING TRENDS AND EVENTS - JULY 2009 - JULY 2012


Article date - July 2009: The cost of recovery programme implemented by Prime Minister Rudd and the Australian federal labor government, will absorb 6% of the Australian Gross Domestic Product. This is 1% more than the official predictions of 5%. I predict that in the years 2009 - 2012 debt will rise above $A200 billion representing almost 15% of the gross domestic product of the nation if it stays at predicted levels but it will not. GDP will decline by 1% - 2%. The Australian national debt will, I think, be closer to 20% of the Australian GDP.

The public debt of the G20 nations will rise above 85% of GDP within this time scale. The Australian economy, particularly retail, is not durable. The Australian consumer is saddled with debt and they are at the mercy, and ruin, of inflation which will rise to 4% in 2010 and onwards to 7%, 2011 and 12% at 2012. The Australian economy at July 2009 is ridden with distorted prices, masked inefficiencies, hidden prices and gouging, particularly in the grocery, fuel and energy sectors. There are too many motor vehicle manufacturers and sellers and too many defence contractors building military systems and supplying services. These and the building industries are relying on government subsidies and revenues. Governments are too big and incompetent in policy and implementation. Money in the tens of millions is wasted for many reasons including grasping political interest.

There is the looming demographic shock of aging as people live longer and require more from governments. health costs spiral with technological advances. We are experiencing deteriorating social dynamics which increase costs - such as law and order and exacerbate social breakdown.

Lenders will eventually refuse to buy "global" government bonds including Australia's and the states will face a crisis in funding in 2009 - 2010. Bond offerings in Australia will top $A300 billion. central banks, including Australia, will print money creating creeping inflation and the lenders will continually add a premium to their demands until they no longer wish to take the paper. China will not be able to support the United States in 2010 creating a crisis in that nation's economy that has seen no parallel in history.

A surge in bank lending in China is creating unproductive, speculative, investments in property and stocks at the expense of manufacturing. This lending is masking the future and makes many believe that China will be the saving grace of the world including Australia. The government of China is engaged in a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package funded from current account surpluses. These are being eatn up at a prolofic rate. The Chinese current account surplus will fall in 2010. Commodity imports are increasing, driving up prices. Excess liquidity is the enemy of growth and sustainaable economies.

The Austraaian Department of Treasury predicts unemployment to rise to a maximum of 8.5%. They are wrong. It will be more like 10.3% and rise to above 11% in mid, to late, 2010. The benefits from the 2009 programme of fiscal stimulus in Australia are over staated and over estimated. Rudd and Swan are spinning a fantasy of their own making. They are borrowing agiants the output and production of the future. This will lead to a stagnation and decline in growth and activity in 2010 - 2011.

June 2009: The United States - President Obama is about to issue his financial regulatory proposals. This will initiate a fierce response form vested interests. The US philosophy and psyche is predicated on the individual and the proposition that anyone can make it big in America if they but try. Thus there is an antipathy towards welfare and social services, health care and education that is not funded by the individual. There is also the entrenched distribution of wealth and the gross inequity. Society is tiered, parts of cities, and the states, are segmented based on money. The rich, influential and powerful, control governments at every level. They hire servants. The definition of a servant, to my mind, may range from the elected government representative, the elected officials, high paid lawyers and advisers, business associates and others in the professions all the way down to the housekeeper, cleaner, gardener and the nanny. Within this broad scope definition of servant one can find a class structure and the incumbents vary in income with the lesser socio - economic share incumbents working on for slave wages. Big corporations such as Disney, and wal mart, have been exposed for paying low wages that require social welfare top up. They are part of the web of support for the rich and play a role across the nation in how wealth is distributed, policies and actions are enacted by governmenst at the federal, and state, levels.

President Obama will, quite quickly, be brought to heel and his regulatory reforms, and other contentious, proposals will be watered down to conform to the underlying psyche and individual interests. He says he will not raise taxes. Thus debt will be endemic. The US debt is enormous and investors such as the Chinese who own slabs of US treasury bonds, and investments, have to be reassured less they flee. The rating agencies, which should be irrelevant after their inept, and psychphantic, pronouncements will still hold sway. One can only admire the American peoples' optimism, and resolve, to struggle forward even in the face of adversity and fantasy. They look for green shoots and grasp at straws. For some this is a glitch and the world will return to normal in the sway of the American empire. This is somewhat delusional. Across the globe governments have been pouring public funds into their economies. This is coming to and end and then what? The recession has not yet gripped Australia and the wave is coming.

The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan were elated to the point of giggling. The national accounts for May 2009 apparently showed that the economy had grown 0.4% technically avoiding a receession. The elation was hardly edifying given that beklieving the figure of 0.4% stretched the imagination. The measures used tp calculate this "mythical figure" are very broad and represent a range of inputs and outputs. The figure used by Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan was made to order. The government fiscal stimulus has created a false retail market and consumer spending trend in Australia during 2009.

"Dr. Woody Bocks Essay: The Future Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio, BY DAN DENNING @ THE DAILY RECKONING - 20/05/2009

Now to Dr. Woody Bock's essay. It's called, "The End Game Draws Nigh - The Future Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio." We've picked some of our favourite parts of the essay. You can read the whole thing here, although we'd advise you to turn off the TV and turn on the coffee pot. He first puts paid to the idea that a revival of consumer demand (which can be stimulated with transfer payments) is the key to recovery from a credit bust. "According to standard business cycle theory," Dr. Bock writes, "pent-up demand on the part of consumers is a principal driver of recovery-but it will not be this time around. The shift towards less consumption and more savings due to the implosion of household balance sheets and to demographics is most probably permanent. If so, this bodes poorly for hopes of a pent-up demand-driven recovery." This reinforces the unique nature of this recession as a "balance sheet recession." In a balance sheet recession, businesses and households devote most of their resources (extra income) to paying off liabilities and reducing debt. They deleverage. Lowering interest rates, then, on the hope that it will revive a mythical pent up demand, ignores the psychological and economic reality of the desire and the need to reduce debts. The recent retail sales figures in America bear this point out. So in comes the government, under Keynesian orthodoxy, to fill the consumption gap." (Source: The Future Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio, BY DAN DENNING - http://www.sharecafe.com.au/dreck.asp?a=AV&ai=12934)

As the Australian government moves to infrastructure spending away from cash handouts to cosnumers, retail will slump dramatically causing large segments of unemployment particularly in the over represented retailers of "hospitality", "cheap clothing, footwear and trinkets", electrical goods and over represented luxury items such as cosmetics. Car manufacturers will suffer greater losses as some dealerships close. The first home buyers grant has created a false bubble housing market ensuring that prices remained high. Many purchasers are over extended because the low interest rates cannot be sustained for years to come. The Reserve Bank is well aware that low rate policy hurts Australia's retirees who need a decent rate of terurn for teir cash. This demographic far outweighs the younger generation in sheer numbers. The so cllaed working families is a narrow demographic and demonstrates a fickle, and myopic, approach to policy and equal voter representation on the part of the major political parties.

The BHP and Rio Tinto joint venture for iron ore in Australia will be blocked on competition grounds causing a fall in the sahre price. Job losses from such a venture would be high in Western Australia. The government has miscalculated the real rates of return in thr economyu by at least 2% meaning that growth will stall and fall into negative in July - September period with extensive declines in the latter part of the year across all economic sectors. The Australian government Emissions Trading Scheme will cause further disruption in investment in thermal assets. Renewable energy technologies will suffer an international decline affecting policy here and at the world trade organisation. The growth figure of 0.4% as at June 2009, is a myth.



WHAT MECHANISMS ALLOW CITIZENS TO INTERVENE IN THEIR GOVERNMENTS BETWEEN ELECTONS?


May 2009: The Rudd labor government's first budget

In undertaking predictive analysis of the first budget delivered by Treasurer, the Honourable Wayne Swan, let us dismiss a number of irrelevant, but nurturing factors, put about by the herds of haters, analysts and media, and the moribund, and somewhat, mediocre parliamentary membership.

  • The first maybe ten minutes of delivery by Mr Swan, was pure motherhood drivel, manufactured by the parasites of the public purse, the unelected political operatives in the prime minister's office and the Ministries. I am not talking of the people transferred from the public service departments to the politicians' offices, nor of the receptionists, meeting secretaries etc, I am talking about the Chief's of Staff and the party faithful who infest thes eplaces and demean and corrode democracy and the operation of the parliament.


  • The rest was hardly of Mr Swan's cant was hardly worth entertaining, or examining in depth, since Mr Swan lived up to the commentary contained in my examination of the performance of the Treasurer, since being appointed, in the
    context of the Rudd federal government performance, to date.

    In his response Mr Turnbull had a singular idea, to add atax to cigarettes. This is the measure of innovation of the leader of the Opposition? Are his spin mercahnts and parasitic party faithful, on the public purse, similarly imbuedc with myopia?

    Let's ignore the moral bankruptcy of the former Howard government and its Ministry, inluding the former Treasurer, Peter Costello, who sat back observing, and participating, in the "ponzi economics" of the golden years, reaping the benefits of the taxes on greed, and stupidity, and corruption, and unbelievable money market gains dressing it up as economic prowess, and policy, using the parasites and the spin doctors of the day. Do we assume that they are detached from analytical skill and assessment capacity?

    They were ably assisted by the state labor governments, the conservative opposition in each state government, the regulatory agencies who did not realise (APRA, Reserve Bank), and the Australian Federal Treasury (who enjoy an unearned level of trust and respect), the banks, the corporations and the business associations, and everyone else who had their snouts in the rodiculous trough of excess. They failed to predict, or simply turned a blind eye, to the obvious.

    These elected representatives, and paid public agencies. should have done their jobs and they did not. They all followed their own interest agendas. A host of people across government and business, collectively, allowed the nation of Australia to be exposed. Now, collectively they plead ignorance, embellish and create their own history, lie and mislead. They are silent on their complicity in all of this and the greedy are back thinking they can begin again.

    Let us ignore the stupidity of using two major benchmarks of economic resilience and health, (a) new car registrations and (b) housing construction. These are domestic and contrived. Note the very large amount of money being spent on these two in Mr Rudd's fiscal stimulus. The first home grants are inflationary in terms of price, interest and effect and will prolong, down the track the agony and the expanding bankruptcies that will follow. Banks are loaning up to 40% plus, of the purchaser's, annual net income. The greedy are jacking up the prices. Mr. Rudd is dressing this future fiasco up, as good fiscal policy and in that he joins the ranks of the morally bankrupt politicians including the Premiers of the states, who cannot determine, and predict, the future because they are part of the herd mentality.

    Out of this, I predict that the Reserve Bank Board will be shown to have failed in its analysis, decisions and endeavours, and current reading of the futiure 9as at May 2009) and prove to be extraordinarily mediocre in prescient capacities. The federal government Treasurey Department, under the hand of Dr. Ken Henry, will also fail in its predictoons and analysis. They predict a conservative futire of return to growth after a few years. The market thinks the stock exchange is a berometer of the return to normalcy. Corporations around the world, governmments and superannuation funds, hedge funds and any number of entities have written off trillions. Where has it all gone that we can return to noraml as if it never occurred? Here in Australia we have not yet written down our over valuations in property and assets. People go on oblivious. A million may be unemployed. It is as if this was a glitch. It is not a receession that we have knwon or experienced. We do not know its hidden effects and the lag.

    I think the Australian nation will be in recession until the end of 2012. The policy makers and the regulators will work on the measure and test of the "historical experience - rear view mirror" analysis techniques, and gut feeling, in lieu of a lateral thinking and "outside the box" capability.

    What of the proposition that no one should buy a house yet in mid 2009, using the federal, and state, governments' subsidies, as their primary underlying source of funds. This is a recipe for disaster since housing prices are still to drop extensively across the Australian nation. The real estate agents do not even have this on their horizon since they think that there is insufficient hosuing stock. What there is insufficient of is income in the hands of burdened indebted households and individuals.

    As for the Rudd and Swan (labor cabinet) budget, and the major issues of debate today, in the media and the parliament? Humbug. Much of te budget is based on ideology, inexperience as to the real world and effects of their prognosis, a compounding lack of knowledge, and information, and poor intelligence gathering and assessment within the political ranks and the adviser royal court, questionable modelling, and analysis, by the public service, inability to see over the horizon and link the dots, healthy egos and a general belief in the power collective self that is unjustified and the product of reinforced spin. The head of Treasury, Dr. Ken Henry, seems confused as to his role. He is a public servant but delivers speeches as if he is a politician. he advises the government publicly, chides and castigates, informs and cajoles, as if he has an open role in the whole process. He does not. He is a publioc servant who is there, according to the dysfunctional Australian democratic model, as a servant of the government.



    WHEN RECOVERY TAKES PLACE? PIFFLE AND HOLLOW DREAMING


    May 2009: Below in this web site I opined that an Australian bank would surprise the market and announce a shocking revelation. The bank name was known but not published herein. April 29, 2009, the Australian and New Zealand Bank announced a major profit downgrade due to bad debts. To my mind, no analyst, or econoic commentator or newspaper columnist, etc, had predicted this. The government Treasury, office of the Prime Minister and the Minister for Finance and the Treasurer have not responded to my communications, pointing out this and other predictions. There is no response to my communications which are often at odds with expert predictions and formal government analysis and planning. By now they should be wondering why my crystal ball is better than their own expensive methodologies. But they are not. They are consumed with their own self prowess. To admit they are wrong would be a major blow to internal government, and public service, expertise and credibility.

    So what about the awaited recovery?

    Well it is not going to be what they think it is. The growth of financial services across the globe has driven much of the calamity and the economic expansion. Coupled with the belief that the rainbow stretches forever. China was, and is still, expected to be the power house of economic growth. This is just a very bad glitch.

    Financial services and the questionable products that have ben sold and the manner of operation of the sector will not return to what it was. Growth will be in the order of 1% to 3% each year, not the 8%, or greater per year, that has been the escalating trend for the past fifteen years. The party is well, and truly, over. The financial services sector will shrink drastically, here in Australia and globally, and consumers, will turn away from exotic offerings. Gambling on stock rises, and gaming the system, will be casualties of the economic crisis.

    Below, in previous articles, I predict what the value of things will be. Living on debt will be a thing of the past as everyone realises that it was a facade and feckless pursuit. The young hot shots, who have been engineered into believing their own infallibility, are learning hard lessons. The crisis is harvesting the inadequate, and the poor management, out of enterprises. The once lauded Board members are struggling for credibility, maintenance and reloevance.

    The focus on the stock market, by experts and commentators, as a sign of recovery or change is misguided. Economists, and market watchers, are looking at indicators, and measures, that are no longer valid and never were. Studying the effects of herd mentality, in the stock markets, on an hour by hour basis, is not a good indicator of the health of economies and the likely future. The major indicator, for the future, is consumer behaviour which is altering dramatically. Consumers are eschewing debt and handing in their credit cards for debit cards, to live within their means. Since the poor make up the greater part of the US economy this spells danger indeed. It is escalating in Europe and will flow into Australia. Bad debts, unemployment and lower incomes are the levers that will ensure there is no immediate recovery.

    Billions, and very soon trillions, is being written off, never to be recovered. This will continue into 2010 - 2011 before the full impact can be determined. There will be no recovery of the dimension perceived. Europe will go into receession as countries debts balloon.
    Empires come and go. Is the end of the American empire? Who knows. America can barely save itself let alone the rest of the world. And China probably does not want to.


    Australia's Broadband Project

    April 2009: The leader of the opposition in the federal parliament, Malcolm Turnbull, has rushed in without thinking, debunking the labor government's proposal for a national high speed broadband. He will be caught out, and have to eat humble pie, having framed a narrow response lacking in awareness and understanding. His argument is debunked here.


    Alt-A Loans and Bonanza-land Ends

    The Bloomberg interviewer asked George Soros if the worst of the recession was over for America? Why is it that the people of the world's largest economy think that this is a passing phase? Thisn is not the end or the closing stages, it is the first quarter to maybe half way. There is another year or more to go before we come to grips with the new order and how we relate the whole financial, market and consumer equation. The herd mentality still rules. This is a profound earthquake registering ten on the richter scale. It is a series of tidal waves and tsunamis.

    The US banking system is going to go to the wall and it will be a drain on the nation for years to come. Wall Street will become a little desolate and isolated like a ghost town of its former self. The US dollar is goiung down during April, May and June 2009. US and European and the smaller nation banks, being undercapitalsed, will charge their way out of the crisis reaping devastation on innovation and growth. They are pariah.

    Here in Australia we are already seeing the rapacious, and caprecious, nature of Australian banks, their managers and their boards. These people take on a whole new persona when they come to work. If the Rudd government is not careful the Australian banks will also dampen Australian enthusiasm, creativity and resilience and deny small to medium business a future. They are not good corporate citizens.

    I heard a real estate agent, in Australia, talking about the Australian property market, and another economist talking about when the recession ends and the stock market starts to regain its losses. What intrigues me is the proposition that somehow this is just a glitch in the gloal financial market and system that will pass. That we will return to normality and growth will again be started.

    That is not how it will turn out. The world's governments will first have to grapple with the next round of defaults, the Alt - A list. They are a few steps up from the "toxic" sub prime mortgages. These are loans to people who are on the borderline and who rely upon a certain set of economic, financial and personal circumstances to keep everything reasonablt balanced. Here in Australia the federal government, banks, real estate agents and housing corporations are fueeling a whole new generation of Alt - A borrowers. The Australian government, uder Prime Minister Rudd, has doubled the first home buyers grant for the purcahse of an existing house from $A7,000 to $A14,000 and created a new catergory, the $A26,000 first home builders grant. People, young people, are rushing in to be self builders without any umderstanding of the implications. A majority of banks are lending between $A390,000 and $A430,000 to people on incomes of $A70,000 per annum or above. The repayments at the current rate of housing interest equate to approximately 60% of annual dispoasble income.

    This borders on the Alt - A description. The borrower has to take out mortgage insurance at significant cost. There is reliance on house prices remaining the same or rising. In the second half of this year (2009) and in early 2010 hosuing prices across Australia will take a dive. Unemployment will have reached 10% and growth will have stalled dramatically. The world financial system may have stabilised but the debt will remain. Not the debt on bank balance hseets but the debt of soceities and individuals.

    Some 15% - 20% of all small business, new businesses and some larger iconic ones will disappear. Consuerism is dead as we know it. It died in a flurry of stupidity, gredd and technology where the "the medium is the massage" (McLuhan and Fiore, Penguin 1857). One may well ponder that the last ten years have been described by many as the "golden age" of prosperity. Consumerism, individualism and advances in society - "The major advances in civilization are processes that all but wreck the societies in which they occur" (A.N.Whitehead)

    "..something is happening but you don't know wjat it is, do you mr. ones?", Bob Dylan. The economists and the commentators sruil "rite words in rite order" or may we well say "trite words in any order"? Thus the west will shake the east awake while ye have the night for morn", (James Joyce). What we have today is propaganda in different forms put about by different interests. We can only reach a concensus on what is going to happen, through the beginning of mutual, open and honest dialogue, at every level. Then the propoganda will end and solutions discovery, and enlightenment, begin. All governments, here in Australia and elsewhere, must tap new sources and new voices that to date have not been heard or who have been denied an audience. The problem for people like Mr Rudd is that this would mean maginalising his loyal troops who have been with him in his rise to the Prime Ministership. A cutting of the political umbillical cord that gives sustenance to apparatchiks who surround him. He must seek out others beyond the existing ranks of the public service, the Australian Business Council, the Australian industry Group, the big name corporate enterprises, the academia and the power collectives, for they have been found wanting. They are unable to glean the future or see the ramifications and the mosaic. It is for this reason that Malcolm Turnbull, the leader of the Opposition in the Australian government cannot mount a crdeitable argument and plan. So it probably goes with President Obama also. The exoerts have, and still are, failing.

    The establishment, the media and the soothwayers, still pay homage to the market and yet the market is a hopeless beast of a thing that behaves in herd fashion. The market moves up because a US toy company, or home maker store, posts a better than expected profit. This is shallow subservience to a hollow dream. The market itself, and its speculative behaviour, does not signify that the world is moving out of the dark depths of its agony or going deeper. The market is nothing but a casino. We have a long way to go down yet. Why? Because the individual is still saddled with debt and the rampant consumer is gone. Spending is not a cathartic solution. It is a placebo.

    Economic prosperity of the past decade has been at the mercy of doing anything that anyone can get away with. "The past went that-a-away. When faced with a totally new situation, we tend always tp attach ourselves to the objects, to the flavor of the most recent past. We look at the present through a rear-view mirror. We march backwards into the future. Suburbia lives imaginatively in Bonanza-land", (McLuhan and Fiore, 1857). There is no greater delusional Bonnza-land than the United States of America. Once its population consumed 25% of the world's resources but no more. So what does that do to the world? If we know what the new consumption figure will be, and when, then we will have a starting point to work out what the future may hold. It is a shrinking of the world economy of probably 10% - 15% overall, and a devaluing in the order of $USD150,000,000,000,000. In the meantime as a forecast growth of 3%, in any economy, excited the economists and governments, so a forecast decline of 5% and more will shatter them.

    Here in Australia the Treasury forecasts were so far off the mark as to raise questions about the quality of advice, and research, being offered to governments across the nation. The same can be posed for Europe, Great Britain and the United States. Yet the same people remain in their influential roles, here in Australia, as if all of this could not be forecast. It was, could and can be, but no one in the public service, in government or the big business associations were, would, or will listen. They work to maintain their positions least they fall by the way side. They will put their interests first and try and come up with another idea or two. When they stumble on something they will spin it for all of its worth.



    Labor has a brilliant strategy for the broadband headache

    The question is can they deliver it? They need a complex mix of investment and support both in delivery and sustainability. The short answer is, with care, innoavtive thinking, and risk they can. They just to get away from the ailed methodologies employed by the Departments using tendering and market testing processes and the questionable expertise of external big name advisers, consultants and experts and the embedded interests within agencies.


    April - June 2009: Rudd Stimulus Plan Fails to Ignite Economy

    The Australian government is in the process (April 2009) of handing out around $950 to people who pay tax and earn less than $A80,000 per annum. Its first stimulus package for the rebuilding of schools and public works is yet to get going. It will help local communities but the lag time is extensive. There will be another stimulus announced in May 2009. Small business has been lobbying the government hard claiming that the banks are abandoning them to their own fates. At first the Minister tried to bat the issue away stating that he had met the banks and had their reassurances. Howvere actual examples are being sent to Dr. Emerson and the banks are being caught out massaging the truth. meanwhile the banks have lwoered interest rates on cash accounts to protect their nargins at the expense of self retirees. They are charging $A2.00 (except for the National Australia bank that charges $A1.50) to use their ATM machines. Suncorp charges $A2.20. The theory, as put out by the Resereve bank, is that competition will lower such charges. The Resserve Bank has as much credibility in its vision, and accuracy, as the Australian governmment Treasury Department.

    The liberal - national opposition in the federal parliament are spare at the activity that is demolishing the surplus they built up under the reign of John Howard. They sputter eco speak with no effect because the world is different to the one they are familiar with. There is too much debt on each working individual and the self employed and the self funded retirees are having their invsetments struck down. The demand to consume is falling on deal ears. Below I predicted a rise in the frugality movement. Those who would have us grow our own vegies, spend less and live more frigally are shouting loud. The Governor of the State of Victoria, Australia, has joined the humbug.

    Kevin Rudd has hung his political reputation on the stimulus package and he is headed for a nasty situation. It will not work. The only way that the world can be taken out of the dark economic age is to reduce the value of property, hosuing and write off individual debt. Low interest rates, first time home garnts from the government, giving people money to spend and the whole idea of rampant consumeism keeping the wheels turning is passe. Add to this the facade of Kevin Rudd and the
    stumbles of the government Ministers and party apparatchiks in their social engineering goals and 2009 - 2010 will be a nightmare for the Australian government and the states and territories.


    MINISTER FOR DEFENCE JOEL FITZGIBBON
    March 2009 and the Minister has continued to be embroiled in debales with his department and also casts doubt on ethical integrity. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's orientation for risk may play well for the moment but Mr Fitzgibbon probably has but a short time to go in the defence portfolio.


    THE DERIVATIVE EARTHQUAKE
    TO HIT THE WORLDS' FINANCIAL SYSTEMS IN JUNE 2009

    The Obama fiscal programme for toxic assets will spectaculraly back fire. Whilst investors salivate at getting cheap assets off the poor for next to nothing via the US banking system, the whole process will fail to realise the investor benefits and they will panic as derivates bite hard.

    Local governments here and in the US, states and institutions, will go broke, small banks will become insolvent and small superannuation funds will fold into larger ones. The US economy will be wrecked along with the new satellite nations that were once part of the Soviet Empire.

    China will suffer decline, riots and will abandon the US Treasury bonds, third world countries will collapse and the wealth of the middle east be plundered. Japan's export economy will suffer a serious desckine. An age of economic darkness will descend. Those who endorsed the US approach to removing toxic debts such as Australia's Prime Minister Rudd, will be seriously embarassed.


    THERE WILL BE NO EMMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME IN AUSTRALIA IN 2010.


    WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE ECONOMY? IT WILL LOSE AT LEAST 10% to 30% OFF ITS CURRENT GLOBAL BASE.
    VALUES WILL FALL ON EVERY ITEM,
    PROPERTY, HOUSES, SHARES, BUSINESSES AND CORPORATIONS.


    No matter what anyone outside the power collectives says the experts, politicians, regulators and the business executives will continue to be the blind leading the blind.>br>
    The world leaders need to understand this quickly.


    Kevin R Beck is a consultant with Professional Managers and Associates.


    IN THE GRIP OF MEDIOCRITY
    THE SAME PEOPLE WHO FAILED TO ANALYSE, AND PREDICT AND REACT
    DESPITE ALL OF THE WARNING SIGNALS ARE STILL THE PEOPLE CALLED UPON FOR SOLUTIONS, IDEAS, POLICY, ACTIONS AND LEADERSHIP
    THEY HAVE COLLECTIVELY FAILED. BUT TO ADMIT THIS IS ANATHEMA>


    Human nature dictates that they would persevere in the vain hope that it willeventually end and they spin their stories, warm in the community of similar thinking, and types, in the world of networks they inhabit, mateship. President Obama has clearly indicated that he follows this pathway with his choices of cabinet in his first term. He did not look beyond further than his nose. Seduced by the "business card".

    That these experts would fail, in their predictive analysis, intuition and anticipation, is not
    surprising.

    The governments of nations, the businesses, the world of finances and economies are in the hands of a group who represent a slice of average. There is no one here in Australia, or in the wolrd of political leadership, that seems capable of making it otherwise. They turn to those they know and the fallacy, and myths of the past, endure. They take their valium in the collective solidarity, a falsehood that no one could have predicted how bad this would be. They ignore a unique group of people across the world.

    "The one word which captures the unique style of INTPs is architect - the architect of ideas and systems as well as the architect of edifices. This type is found in only 1 percent of the population and therefore is not encountered as frequently as some of the other types. INTPs detect contradictions in statements no matter how distant in space or time the contradictory statements were produced. The intellectual scanning of INTPs has a principled quality; that is, INTPs search for whatever is relevant and pertinent to the issue at hand. Consequently, INTPs can concentrate better than any other type. Authority derived from office, position, or wide acceptance does not impress INTPs. Only statements that are logical and coherent carry weight. External authority per se is irrelevant. INTPs abhor redundancy and incoherence. Possessing a desire to understand the universe, an INTP is constantly looking for natural law. Curiosity concerning these keys to the universe is a driving force in this type.

    INTPs prize intelligence in themselves and in others, but can become intellectual dilettantes as a result of their need too amass ideas, principles, or understanding of behavior. And once they know something, it is remembered. INTPs can become obsessed with analysis. Once caught up in a thought process, that thought process seems to have a will of its own for INTPs, and they persevere until the issue is comprehended in all its complexity. They can be intellectual snobs and may show impatience at times with others less endowed intellectually. This quality, INTPs find, generates hostility and defensive behavior on the part of others, who may describe an INTP as arrogant. For INTPs, the world exists primarily to be understood. Reality is trivial, a mere arena for proving ideas. It is essential that the universe is understood and that whatever is stated about the universe is stated correctly, with coherence and without redundancy. This is the INTPs final purpose. It matters not whether others understand or accept his or her truths." (source: http://www.gesher.org/Myers-Briggs/Profiles--NP.HTM)

    The head of Australia's Treasury Dr Ken Henry has a record, along with his employees in the Department of getting it wrong. The Resereve Bank Board simi;arly, the previous government of John Howard and the former treasurer Peter Costello did not anticipate and nor did any of the world's leading economic and analytical institutions. Onl;y 1% of the global popu;ation got it right and they were ignored because they are unusual.

    Australia's Prime Minister of the current day, (March 2009), surrounds himself with like minded and those who fit his view and perspectives. He has the young bucks just like businesses like Enron hired the youthful smarts. This is the power collective, a world wide group of like minded, that has brought everyone to their knees. Then again they would not have achieved this but through the disinterest, and stupidity, of the general population that took no interest in their economies, decline of
    ethics replaced by mountains of bullshit, until it was, and is, too late. Now we suffer medicrity and the blather of self importance, vapid analysis and the thirty second grab of an uninspiring media.


    Politicians, political advisers, senior public servants, members of corporate boards and managers of businesses might consider these predictions. The predictions, even if partially accurate, impact on governments and businesses. These impacts wil be massive, long lasting and a shock like no other.



    Experts? A futurist with a methodology Predictions and Commentary
    by Kevin R Beck, Australia
    Commentary on Australia's Government





    THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS

    KEVINRBECK PREDICTIONS FROM 2006, 2007 COMPOUNDING UP TO TODAY AND BEYOND INTO 2009 - 2010


    IMPACTS ON GOVERNMENT, BUSINESS AND COMMUNITY
    Go to Kevin Rudd's Australia



    March 2009: American business interests demonstrate the core of the crisis


    The US Congress, and media, are consumed with the bonuses that AIG paid themselves from taxpayers funds. Their defence is the legal contractual requirements. This demonstrates the focus that American business executives have. We can look to moral outrage, or as one member of the Congress has suggested that AIG executives follow the Japanese code of ethics.

    "GOP Senator: AIG Execs Should Follow Japanese Model -- Suicide or Apology, March 16, 2009 7:55 PM

    In an interview with Cedar Rapids, Iowa, radio station WMT-AM today, Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, said executives of AIG should consider following what he described of the Japanese model of shamed corporate executives: apology or suicide." (source: http://blogs.abcnews.com/ABC News, USA)


    All of this outrage does not reflect the reality that a large number of people, who have assumed positions in society within the US, seem to fail to understand that the way they have done things is probably no longer going to be relevant or tolerated.

    The focus on minutae that promises sustenance and return, the graspoing at straws further demonstrates the appalling lack of awareness of the underlying human behaviour and the nature of markets and economies. On March 18, 2009 new housing (apartments and condominiums) of 583,000 was announced in the United States, and the US share market rallied with people opining that this may be the dawn of the horizon of resurgence. The US population is about 300,000,000 so the 538,000 represents 0.00194433%. The herd mentality grasps as anything in their freny to recover what has all but gone. Unemployment in the USA (and in Australia and elsewhere) rises near 10% and the greater part of the US nation lives in borderline poverty. They are held to ransom by casulaisation and the false feeling of freedom that casualisation apparently brings or not. 90% of the wealth in the United States sits in the hands of the few and much of that is gone or going. This is the order of things and apparently everyone can aspire to that within the American dream. Precisley that - a dream. Marketing hype from birth to grave shapes the US society to repond to the stpory tellers and the purveyors of self empowerment. In a population of 300,000,000 a seller of things does not require much of the consumer dollars to create a multi million dollar business. There are many gullible, and under educated people, all believing the dream, in a population of that size.

    In the words of one wealthy American commentator on Bloomberg Television, "they can't spend if they can't borrow". This encapsulates everything. This is the foundation of the global economy of 1990 - 2009. Debt. The consumer, average or below average salary and wage earners, are required to be in debt, to service debt and be on a merry go round, in order for the economic model to work. It is not a little debt either it is a credit card debt of at least $10,000 plus and a housing debt of somewhere around $380,000 to $700,000. It is about being on the buy now, no deposit and no repayments for 18 months to 3 year debt fulled platform of good living. It is about endless consumption. It is about the tehory taht the poor people of China and India will aspire to consumer godds and will fuel the rest of the world's economies with demand. It is about building cities and sucking the life out of rural areas of countries until food production is threatened. It is fundamentally about myth, delusion, hubris, greed and stupidity. The practice of slicing and dicing everything down to small bits - time, debt, risk and desire, and spread it around. Nice theory, doesn't quite work. It is about shallow concepts - quality time, the power nap, the internet where you can choose your snippets, where you can make thousands every month from some new scheme, nothing too hard and taxing, nothing too deep and complex. The American concept of prepackaged food in the ubiquitous diner and take away, taken to a new dimension of prepackaged everything. Australia has embraced this dross and now must pay the price.

    There is no capacity, or appetite, for that debt level now, anywhere. The value of everything - shares, houses, products, salaries and bonuese of the rich, the price paid to film stars and the world of loxury and staples must drop. The slice and dice has to be thrown away and with ecah bit a billion or so dollars. The American fantasy of their own making, to be at the forefront of the world in everything is indeed a fantasy. The danger is that other governments, like the Rudd gvernment here in Australia, will continue to embrace the proposition that consumers must borrow, and debt (credit), is the foundation of economic growth and prosperity into the future. It is one ting to invest in infrastructure and economic well being items, quite another to continue with the less valuable consumer market for feckless products, cheap and vast shopaholic all with shallow meaning and no return.

    Meanwhie the Chinese government, have long memories. They are well aware that the western nations, particularly the US and Britain, have reaped the wind at the expense of the Chinese, in the past. The Chinese government holds a large slice of US debt bonds. Below in this site I refer to a modern Boxer Rebellion. People familiar with that
    history will realise what I am implying. Political statements, and soothing responses to the USA, were at stark contrast to what was happening behind the ' scenes. Opportunists in the corporate world across the gobe, talk of China emerging. However I contend that they are emerging not in the way that the speculators are expecting. Australia has to be vigilant particularly as so much of our trade is tied up with China, in the resources sector. They may very well turn on us and Rudd could face a modern Boxer rebellion designed to humiliate, aggravate and bring us to heel. I would not be doing business in China in 2009, and beyond, in these times, unless I was very sure that I was in with the right crowd, the state security police and the ruling communist leaders.



    March 2009: What do they (governments, legislators, commentators and industry and commerce) not understand regarding spending in 2009 and beyond?

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd needs to get a new circle of advisers from many walks of life particularly those who will confront the government in their own private deliberations. He also needs more diverse, and constantly challenging, reszerach capability in his office, wider data and analytical sources. There should be a sweep of the Reserve Bank Board and the senior ranks of the Australian public service.

    The Prime Minister can also
    help Aldi create jobs too. by ending the collusion, manipulation and barrier creation against this retail group competing in the Australian market. However to date, despite time passing since the enquiry conducted by the ACCC, into the Australian grocery industry, there is no indication that the Prime Minister intends to distance himself from the corrosive forces of the state labor party branches. Ethics is a low, even non existent, priority in Australian political life.

    Listening to the commentators and others in the USA I hear that they are hoping that consumers will feel secure and return to the spending spree perhpas later this year. They say things like "it is tough but how you execute the strategy and how you ...." replay the old records is the key to the future. They seem to think the rules of yeterday and the operational methods are still relevant. Chief Executive Liddy of the AIG corporation in the USA talks of putting assets that cannot be sold into trusts with self evaluation, some securitization, a little equity raiisng and a timeframe of say a year and AIFG can pay back the $USD38 billion it owes to the American taxpayer. These sort of numbers are splashed around and can apparently be made at the drop of a hat in the wink of an eye indicating that there are serious issues with accounting principles, the real state of corporations and economies and credibility. The US bonds on offer are not worth the money and if China stops buying them as they will in the next six months then the USA, as a nation, will slide into bankruptcy. That may be the best thing to happen to the world economy, who knows. Maybe they (300 million people) will not consume 25% plus of the world's resources in the future as they have done in the past.

    Then there is the ever expected stimulus package from China that will save us all. When did we arrive at a position in the world when the future of the world economy rested on one nation? A nation which is relatively poor in comparison to the developed world. A country with little if any social infrastructure and safety nets for its citizens, a country where the annual per capital income can be encompassed in a one month American, European or Australian pay packet.

    Many USA corporate executives appear to be saying this recession will end quite soon at the behest of China and all will return to what it should be, a triumphal march back. According to these kings of commerce there is only one worthwhile system, and ownership, of capital and revenue and all else is heresy and not to be allowed. The pending pseudo nationalisation of their major banks is causing them to question the existence of life itself as they know it. Nationalisation of the banking system, what is the justification they squeal?

    For this commentator the real solution to the current scenario can be found in looking at the value of assets, the real value of debt, reorganising the processes, remving and distributing power and control, kicking out the charalatans, breaking down the American hegemony of bullshit, greed, smoke and mirrors. Rethinking what is truly important and worthwhile in the world. It is not feckless technology and China's whims nor whether General Motors survives as a car company. Just because a billion people are thought by the myopic, and too often ignorant Americans, to aspire to their way of excess this is not, and should not be, the sole objective and solution of this crisis? Excess destroys the soul along with everything else in the human condition. Perhaps what would be a good thing is if America was just to end up like any other nation. To be humble without thinking its rightful position in the world is to be always at the front. The United States of America has no moral authority and is given too much credence by the rest of the world.

    Here in Australia, the aspirant for the Premiership of Queensland, Mr Springbord claims to be able to pay for his election promises using an efficiency dividend to be extracted from the Queensland public sector. This is quite simply rubbish. The proposition that a nebulous amount of money (in this case) 3% can simply be dictated treats the electorate with lacking intelligence. In the same set of innovative, and exciting, pledges the liberal nationals talk of creating 10,000 jobs. Underpinned by the fantasy of the efficiency dividend. The liberal and national parties, locked in the ideology of a political derivative. They seem shell schocked by the collapse of the global financial system and may be oblivious to the coming derivative storm that will bankrupt Australian local governments, many investors and cause small superannuation funds to fold into larger ones. The notion of being able to mainatin a surplus, and avoid debt, is a dead horse being flogged by a party, and set of leaders, out of touch with a reality in which they played a role. The unblinking embrace of US hegemony and financial experimentation.

    In Western Australia the Premier there claims the same mythical capability. This eronious assumption comes form the ideology that the public sector is inefficient and that every governmment in office engages in waste. In NSW it is probably very true which is the exception. The public service, like the parliament, needs to be cleaned out. In Queensland the returned Premier Anna Bligh will take a broom to the public sector in a significant reshuffle in April 2009. The incoming federal labor government, under the tuttellage of Minister Lindsay Tanner engaged in cooking the books demanding a similar effiiency dividend. There is no evaluation just guessing. It is like the modeliing of the Australian Treasury, incorrect on every occasion. Why does the Treasury have any credibility along with its head Dr Ken Henry? Meanwhile the public services of Australia at state and federal level bear the brunt of political fantasy and ideology trying to serve the political masters rather than the public interest. Democracy and governance is corrupted by this onerous and vandalous demand.

    Fantasy is the order of the day in Australian politics. The federal opposition leader, Malcolm Turnbull extolls the virtues of the Howard - Costello era. The era of rampant capitaalism where we all apparently rode a wave of prosperity. True, the federal government under these two political leaders paid down government debt but they did not, during their eleven years in government, do anything worthwhile with the surplus. Investment in Australia by every government for the past fifty years has been derelict. In the modern age (2000 - 2008) these two politicians and their collleagues did not invest, other than in building an economically questionable rail line to Darwin. They did not expand education and services. They did not expand the ports nor pester the states particularly NSW to invest in assets for the future. Instead they wasted billions on failed experiments, played meaningless political games with neanderthal morons in the Australian telecommunications industry over theory and one upmanship. Peter Costello, and the Coalition, spins a story that under his Treasureship people in Australia became more wealthy. Many people squandered that wealth and went into massive debt seemingly believing that the good times would never end. Property, housing, rents and other prices rose dramatically. That wealth strangely disspeared in 2009. Was it an illusion on paper?

    It may not be evident to the commentators and the legislators but a very large section of world population is in debt. A debt as mcuh as 33% of their annual nett revenue. A very large segment of the population have assets that are now very much diminshed and as interest rates are lowered by questionable Reserve bank decision their earnings are plundered. The Australian government is focused on first home buyers. These are the people with the lowest level of incomes and they are having to be subsidised by $A26,000 plus to get them into a home and into debt. In focusing here the government is crippling another 60% of the Australian population's earning potential and thus psending capability.

    To determine just how much people have to spend the Australian Bureau of Statistics would have to conduct a census to determine, across the whole population, the current debt and repalyment levels against the annual nett income of every citizen. Only then can we determine what the capability to spend is. Idiots still run commercial advertisements offering no deposit, no interest and no repayments for months and years as if the consumer can go on and buy, buy, buy as in the past.

    Below in this web site (in January 2009) I
    predicted that the $A10.2 billion given to citizens would not deliver the outcome beleived by the government and the Reserve Bank. I wrote to the office of the Prime Minister wityh this view but received no acknowledgement. People in decision making roles surround themselves with like minded associates who reinforce what they ant to hear and believe. The proposition of fearless and open communication, and advice, from public servants, is only realisable if the service has the capacity for thinking beyond the traditional. Tresaury does not and in any event it is unlikely that alternative opinions to the that of the titular head of the Treasury, DrKen Henry, will ever be presented to Ministers and the Prime Minister, from lower levels of the public service where the brighter public servants may be found.

    The federal opposition, with a memory capacity measured in days changes its story. Turnbull says that there will be no receession, then says there may be and then says Australia is in one and then not in one. One has to catch this former merchant banker on the right day. It is unlikely given his background and participation in the frenzy of the recent decade that he has any inkling what to do. Peter Cotsello is as devoid of solutions, but this does not stop them from trotting out their drivel and self interested parodies. The government wants to invest in schools and infrastructre but this is heresy in the opposition's eyes. To borrow to build is alright for citizens but it is apparently a catastrophe for the government to ddo so on behalf of all people in Australia.

    In the USA the government is giving the billions, not to people to pay off their massive debdts, but to worthless banks and companies like general Motors, insurance companies and others, where the Board, and management, are proven to be incompetent and in some cases unethical and worse.

    The current government still fiddles with broadband and the supposed massive benefit that high speed internet will bring to the economy. Those benefits are mythical. The theory of diminishing returns has no place in the thinking of the modern politician, advisers and public servants. Spending $A4.5 billion on a wire to the node is the continued story of technology's fantasy of return on investment. The applied electronics industry has collapsed, the surfuit of chip makers are being culled. The public's love afafir with trinkets such as LCD television, ipods and iphones etc is ended. Chinese made junk and copied technologies are no longer the engine drivers. Movie downloads, games and the feckless offerings of the internet and broadband are on the wain. Broadband will be the new impetus in services like health, medicine, science and education. Real things not play things.

    Then we have
    climate change and the Emmission Trading Scheme. The Minister in charge, Senator Penny Wong, is a soft spoken proponent of government policy. For some reason, given that she is highly intelligent, she does not sell the government's ETS well. Arguments for inclusion of agriculture (not in Kyoto) fall on deaf ears and thus bio alternatives are not considered. There is not much substance when she speaks about climate change and the impact of the ETS but the voice is melodic and comforting. This is not enough to get it over the line.

    The ETS comes at a very bad time for the government. The climate change hacks are shrill that we must not be diverted from their cave dwelling doomsday agenda and must bear the pain for our past sins. the Australian Treasury salivates at the wondrous billions that will flow to the Australian government coffers. Critics intone that it will flow out again swiftly to a greedy industry that will not change its ways. Looking at Ms Wong's capabilities there is no confidence that she has any idea how to regulate, and control, the new casino of the ETS. One thing is certain, there will be players, like banks and gamers, as are present in the electricity industry, taking their slice of the cash for little contribution. Nevertheless, without any convincing modelling, federal Treasury (they have such a model record on assessmenst and accuracy) is likely to produce erroneous justification.

    "A Coalition-controlled Senate committee has hired a leading opponent of Australian action to address climate change to review Treasurys modelling of the Governments emissions trading scheme. In an unusual move, Brian Fisher, described in the announcement as "former Executive Director of ABARE and currently of Concept Economics" has been directly engaged by the Senate Select Committee on Fuel and Energy to conduct an "independent review" of Treasurys modelling." (source: Greenhouse niggard to review treasury ETS modelling, MONDAY, 8 DECEMBER 2008, Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane, Crikey.com.au)

    In March 2009 the government shut down the enquiry. The government presses on
    regardless. Under our immature and often childish and spiteful system of politics, and government, alternative opinions, and critics, are treated as pariah and are locked out of dialogue, and contribution, by interests within the office of Ministers and the Prime Minister. These are unelected political party parasites feeding on the public purse. They are sustained under the coalition (liberal national) as well as labor governments at state, territory and federal level. The ETS will, create yet another mechanism, and methodology, for greed and profiteering by a few without ever really reducing carbon, and other nasty, emmissions.



    Immediately the Prime Minister could assist Aldi to create thousands of jobs by removing the
    collusion and anti-competitive practices that are blocking Adli's investment and business expansion. So why does he not move on this opportunity? Perhaps he is not aware of it?

    When it is all going well there are so many success stories and successful people. The media, and the oundits, lauds the prowess of John Howard and Peter Costello. The members of the power collective, in corporations and institutions become legends in their own time. Then something goes wrong and we see them for what they are. They made their money and their influence within a facade. Yet the legends continue and they remain in charge taking us further into the mire.



    Slaves to Debt


    What is the primary business objectives of banks? It is to enslave to debt, countries, corporations, societies and individuals.

    The Australian government, like all governments. is captive to this primary objective. Why else would Kevin Rudd and the Cabinet spend $A52 billion on creating consumption immediatley? Why would they offer $A26,000 to new home buyers? Australian Small Business Minister met with the banks and small business representatives, why? Access to credit and debt continuation. The world is binging on debt and the policy makers, in their myopia, do not see this?

    Revisiting the Boxer Rebellion


    Centuries ago the Chinese cut themselves off form the wolrd (1420's) and then they reacted against the Western World in their Boxer Rebellion. The experts, earlier predicted that China would be the saviour of the western nations, including Australia and the USA, by their demand. That did not eventuate. Then in early march 2009 the poor sods thought that China would enact a multi billion dollar stimulus package. That did not happen. China is the world's laegest holder of US debt. What if they called it up? Would this be the modern Boxer rebellion? Does China think that they, like many other nations, have been raped by western imperialism one time too far?


    Banks have to take losses


    Worldwide $USD 150 trillion, in debt and inflated value, has to be written off by banks and governments. The banks, across the world, will have to take losses, as will their shareholders. Banks, and corporations, should be allowed to fail. Across global economies banks have to restructure their loans for houses and credit cards, setting interest at 5%, for ten years.

    Companies that are an impost, like the global car companies should be restructured. US car manufacturers should not be headquartered in the US and should be left to survive or fail with no more government assistance. Onwers of companies need to shed those executives who are on their Board, and who are CEO's, and in senior management positions who have come from the banking sector, investment banking and finance companies. They are not suited to manage the ongoing crisis. US companies will face a decline in their current business ranging from 15% to 60% as they suffer the fall out of the crisis. It is insufferable that the people who played in the end game are now appearing before the US Congres and Senate extolling their credemtials. The Obama plan for rescucitating the US will not work and America will go technically bankrupt as its banks fail. In Australia the banks will have to change their attitude, lower their credit card rates and housing loans. Those companies like Pacific Brands who received millions in tax payer handouts should have to repay the money by an order (legislation) of the Australian parliament. The power collective (politicians, bankers, corporate executives and the others who reaped the greed) should get some ethics or be ostracised for what they are. They are
    consuming the nation. The Australian people should choose what they buy and from what companies. They should cease send a message to politicians by not voting for labor and liberal party candidates at state and federal elections during the next four year period.




    WILL RUDD'S AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE WORK?

    mostly, but many small to medium businesses will still fail and people will lose their jobs and others will go bankrupt


    (February 2009) The foundation of the economic thinking in today's world is one of endless growth. Thus we must determine if this is real. It is not. The proposition of endless economic growth is a fallacy.

    Then we have the proposition, put about by the Liberal Pary of Australia, most recently bu Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, that Australians have never been richer. The problem with this claim is that the riches were based on unrealistic property, share and housing values. They were and still are a facde. Hosuing and property will, like shares, take a dive as set out below in the articles of this web site. Rising from 12% devaluation through 20% to 30% and to a revaluation downwards of 50% in some places in the nation. The over valuation of housing damages the economy.

    "But the sorts of capital gains we have seen in recent years also have a downside. Rapidly rising house prices make it more difficult for non-owners to get a foothold on the property ladder (a recent Productivity Commission report confirms that housing affordability declined considerably in the three years to 2004).] And new buyers who have purchased a home may have over-stretched themselves, for debt levels are at record heights and a future rise in interest rates could generate severe hardship.

    Rapid house price inflation also has wider economic costs, for it can distort the way we use capital. The Productivity Commission notes how, ˜Rising prices can create expectations of further price increases, unrelated to any change in market fundamentals.[15] Young workers rush to take out huge mortgages before house prices spiral out of reach, and older buyers are seduced into investing in rental property while disregarding falling rental returns. Panic buying creates a housing ˜bubble which sucks money out of productive investments and eventually threatens the whole economy.

    Just as damaging in the long-term are the sociological effects of high house price inflation. The longer a housing boom goes on, the more it is likely to foster what Max Weber called a spirit of ˜booty capitalism emphasising pursuit of short-term windfall profits at the expense of hard work, thrift, enterprise and long-term planning. When passive ownership of a house delivers riches far beyond what most people could accumulate from many years of working and saving, traditional virtues emphasising hard work, saving, enterprise and deferred gratification are likely to get eroded, yet these are values on which capitalist liberal democracy ultimately depends.[ Savings, certainly, have been in free-fall. The household savings ratio, which was 10% in 1990, is now negative, and debt servicing is costing an average of 9% of personal incomes." (Source of extract: After the House Price Boom: Is this the end of the Australian dream?, Peter Saunders in Policy - The Centre for Independent Studies, http://www.cis.org.au/Policy/autumn05/polaut05-1.htm)

    The we come to the cash hand outs from the government. The strategy for growth is based on consumption (spending) and not on ivestment. Thus people ust spend to keep the house of cards in place. Trouble is they are so indebted. The government gives them a few thousand dollars. The theory is that they wil spend some, all or nothing. But usually they spend. The money is jam for the big supermarkets. The shaky cards in the stack are the myriad of cheap under capiatlised small businesses that sell the tacky tee shirts, the trinkets and the electronics, largely produced out of China. These palces should be left to fail. Problem is that they employ young people. If they fail, and close, thousands of young people will be out of work and many use the casual job (in reatil and hospitality) to under write their university and college studies. Many Australian small business will fail in 2009. As many as 15% - 25%.

    Investing on infrastructure is positive but it has long lead times. Thus government eveywhere have to fund the stupid people and the businesses that have no capital and too much debt during that lag time.

    "Although the benefits of a costly, infrastructure-focused stimulus package based on massive gov ernment spending may be intuitively attractive, past evidence suggests that the impact of govern ment spending programs that are intended to encourage economic growth is very modest and unlikely to enhance recovery or deter recession." (source of extract: December 16, 2008, Learning from Japan: Infrastructure Spending Won't Boost the Economy: by Ronald D. Utt, Ph.D., in The Heritage Foundation)

    Added into the mix is the government's
    Emission Trading Scheme
    and the Climate Change debate.
    All of the modelling done by Treasury for the price of carbon (circa $A30 per tonne) is all wrong. It is $A9 per tonne. It is not unusual for the Treasury to be wrong. It is more the norm. Yet Dr. Ken Henry pontificates as if Treasuy's fiction is fact. The Governor of the Reserve bank of Australia, Mr. Glenn Stevens, says that Australia will have a housing lead receovery later in 2009. This is also a fantasy. People are rushing in to get the governments $A26,000 first home buyers subsidy. They are signing loans with banks and entering into debt hoping, believing, that this is all a glitch. Those who are buying their first home are the battlers and the people who have jobs created by others. They are most likely to be the lesser educated, least mobile in terms of chasing jobs unles they are trade related and work in the mining industry, working in the non professional sector.

    First ome buyer grants coupled with negative gearing act to push the price of hosuing up. Much of the action by Australia's governments, as others in the world, is based on flawed theory and
    myth.

    In summary, the house of cards will crumble. The wealth of the nation, and its citizens, wil decline by between 10% to 15% perhaps higher. There is nothing that Kevin Rudd or anyone else can do to stop this they can simply spend to try and lessen the impact. Sixty percent of the nation's population will suffer a demolition of their nest egg. Especially savers who live on interest earnings as Reserve Bank pushed interest rates to new lows.


    THE END OF THE VICTORIAN DSE'S AGENCY POWER

    DSE, the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, heads into a storm of its own making. The name becomes a great irony. For yaers DSE has held captive the labor government of Victoria. Despite evidence and enquiry outcomes the management and ideologs of this incredibly dangerous, and destructive, agency have maintained a hard line against mitigation of base fule across Victoria. They have refused to carry out burns. They have prosecuted people for cutting donw trees around their property and have relived the storm trooper era against the cattlemen who would dare to graze their herds in the state's forest and Alpine regions.

    This a culpable department aided, and abetted, by incompetent, and craven, Ministers. The current Minister is Gavin Jennings, and he is already manipulating the truth and the facts as he fights to save his political career.

    The government pays hundreds of spin merchants across the public sector to manipulate, lie, distort and deny information. The Premier, John Brumby, is shocked by the devastation of the
    2009 Black saturday bushfires. Not just one fire but tens upon tens of fires joining up. Hundreds dead, thousands of houses and properties gone, live stock destroyed and thousands made homeless as whole towns are wiped out. Some will say that blame can be laid at feet of DES, its management and its Ministry. It will be. John Brumby has announced a Royal Commission, which will be the agency's slayer. Pity is that these contributors to such devastation will not be individually held accountable and responsible. What is the criminal definition of arson, and abetting arson? Does one have to actually light the fire or can they aid the arsonist by providing the fuel?

    John Brumby is a politician. He lacks the foresight to immediately anticipate and sack the ideologs of the Department of Sustainability and Environment leaving the most valuable public servants, those who fight fires, their colleagues have helped to foster. A restructure will be announced but what will that mean?



    REALITY IS COMING IN 2009 - 2010

    At sometime in between 2000 and 2008 the general population came to believe that houses, property and other assets like shares were always going to go up. Sure there may be blips but generally it was understood that the status quo would be maintained. Ordinary people became gamblers with the self perception that they knew what they were doing.

    Why don't they get it? Everything is over priced! A plumber and a trade person is not worth $150.00 per hour, a university graduate was not worth $A80,000 a year in salary, a consultant is not worth $200 - $300 per hour, a house is not worth eight, ten, or twenty times the annual median wage or salary of the bulk of the population, rents are too high, and the places not worth the money, shares were over valued, assets procured at over valued costs and entered to books, debt was rejigged to look like an asset in disguise, debt waas packaged at arms length. Supermarkets and other retailers were, and are still, engaged in rip offs. Australia could afford to add more and more retail and shopping centres. China would make us all rich across the country and then there were the others burgeoning to enter consumerism and the lifestyle, India and Asia. Even today (January 27, 2009, real estate agents and property officiandos think that Sydney and other places are immune. They think there is no over supply, that this is an unfortunate but manageable blip. What don't they get yet?

    The period 1999 to 2007 was full of fantasies and speculation. Now comes the reality. Housing will drop 25% to 50% in unexpected places across Australia, trade wages and other high priced services will be cut by half. Feckless consumerism is dying and along with it a large slice of worthless enterprise.

    Australia is over regulated by zealot officials, Our productivity, infrastructure and investment is stifled by federalism and every tin pot bureaucracy wanting a piece of the game. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) sets access rules on certain infrastructure. There is gaming in our major sectors of energy, transport and telecommunications. If you want to see the over regulation and false market creativity in action look no further than the Australian government's current broadband tender. The proposal follows the bureaucracy's traditional pathway to learning information whihc they euphemistically call "testing the market". One mioght have thought that they woulod have learnt from the Access Card exrecise where the taxpayers footed a bill approaching $A60,000,000 for absolutely nothing in return. No doubt Human Services, the Department in charge of that debacle would claim to have learnt things and added to their knowledge base. Similarly the government will get nothing from the broadband tender (April 2009) and better have a back up plan. This plan must include dealing with Telstra, Australia's largest telco, and major barrier to progress in communications. The management, and Board, of the company compromise the public interest, treat consumers and any critics with contempt, and fundamentally run the company as if it is a rerun of the OK Corral or Custer's Last Stand.

    Telstra should have lost its infrastructure backbone domination decades ago but the federal, liberal (coalition) government, of John Howard, was too greedy in wanting to get top value for selling their shares in Telstra. The Hawke, and Keating, labor governments never got around to making our telecommunications truly universal in access and cost. Now the reckoning days are coming for all of the above players, in every sector of the economy. It is very likely that the Opposition liberal coalition under Malcolm Turnbull will be as mediocre, ill informed and unprepared in their policy response as in the past.


    January 20, 2009: SO WHAT WILL THEY DO, WHAT CAN THEY DO?

    Spend spend spend


    Some world governments will have to buy the debt of a large section of the population with regard to home ownership. The Australian home sector is it is overvalued dramatically as much as 30% to 85% in some locations and generaly 25% - to 30% across the board in the sort after locations. The governments should not buy 85% but they can buy the differential between what the house is actually worth and the unsustainable value they paid less any funds/convertible assets they may hold.

    The basis of the decison as to how cuh should be the economic evaluation of the multiplier of what a house is worth in the average suburb. It is worth 5 - 9 times the annual average income. Thus a person who earns $50,000 should be able to buy a house valued at $250.000 to $450,000 maximum. One house, not two and not houses for investment. Those who bought for investment and not for living should not have their excess debt proportion paid. This is not a concept this is what the governments of the world will have to do.

    As for shares and other instrumenst they were all overpriced. They will not return to where they were and will be probably 50% of the values we have seen during the boom years.

    International banks are withdrawing renewal of loans to Australian businesses. Since the banks do not have the billions to replace those funds the government will have to turn to the superannuation funds. They too have been hard hit. The rules will have to be changed to allow funds to make loans and investments. Coupled with this will have to be a series of supporting measures.


    1. The mandated contribution from salary and wages must rise by at least 1.5% preferably 3%, providing a wider capital base to offset risk.
    2. The funds must charge a premium for the risk and service of 0.25% to 0.50% above market rates the international banks may have provided
    3. Federal, and state, governments must enter into a partnership to provide guarantees protecting peoples' superannuation
    4. Lower the fedral government 15% tax contribution rate or abolish it and provide incentives for people to take cash annuities and not lump sums when they want to retire
    5. Provide incentives for people to stay in the workforce
    6. The Australian community at large needs to be developed for tourism instead of a focus on the coastal regions and major cities. The market segments overseas require greater srutiny to match destination and experience to the segnments. Mass marketing advertismenets are not effective.

      The Australian regional travel infrastructure, facilities and services, to take tourists to outer communities is very poor and over priced. The services are low grade. State governments have faield to build rail lines or closed them in a corrosive impact on development and a stupid fixation with surplus as it suits their political agenda. Now surplus is irrelevant as they face annihilation.

      Places like Port fairy and Warrnambool, Ballarat, Cowra, Kyneton, Camberra, Cooma, inland from the coastal regions, the coast of South Australia, Margaret River, Cable Beach, Mornington Peninsula, the wilderness of the Northern Territory and Queensland and the outback are gems that are wasted through neglect, poor resource allocation, by myopic policy, investment and decision making.

      Vested interests are controlling and stifling development, opportunity and innovation. There is a great gap between the incentive, and capacity, of communities with many remainng in the doldrums and others steaming ahead on their initiatives and talents using what they have with effect, on small, medium and larger scales. Others suffer internal restrictions e.g Swan Hill, Bega on the south coast of New South wales or Portland in Victoria, where industry has branded the town and is seen as the economic dominance with tourism, food and hospitality relegated down the list. There is actual antipathy to tourists in some places.
    7. The Bendigo Community Bank concept needs greater expansion, and support, from Austarlia's governments.
    8. The stranglehold Qantas has on air travel needs to be broken by government decision to open up markets and locations. Incentives for others to come in quickly must be provided



    January 10, 2008: What is coming in the next three to six months?

    The Australian car industry will be rocked by the closure of more car dealerships and finance companies as more pressure goes onto the Rudd labor government's car financing rescue in concert with the banks. One of the major car manufacturers will announce it is quitting Australia.

    Over the next three to six months the US dollar will drop sharply by between 6% and 12%. The Australian dollar will also fall. It may go below $US0.50 cents. The Chinese Yuan will apprecite making their exports dearer. They will turn inwards to ward off a domestic famine and reaction. Another major US bank will fail as housing in the US, Australia and elsewhere plummets in value. An Australian bank will be exposed to bad debts above its published provisions. Unemployment in Australia will rise to 7% in march and move upwards. Interest rates will falter as Reserve bank becomes unsure what to do.

    The Australian state of Victoria will suffer a budget deficit rather than a surplus as proclaimed by the Premier John Brumby. Kevin Rudd's
    climate change ETS will be rejected, on mass, by industry and the Australian community. The price of water and electricity will rise in all states and territories. The infrastructure fund will struggle and the awarding of such projects will not generate employment or economic stability. The Australian Future Fund will suffer losses in its funds management.

    Australia's growth, and that of thew orld, will decline to the negative. There will be no economic growth for eighteen months or two years in any economy and this may extend out to five years. The states of New York and california will file for banruptch. The world's three largest economies are in major decline and Silicon Valley will be reduced dramatically through many company failures. In India the information technology industry driving that economy will be shunned by clients as more corruption is exposed. Microsoft, Apple and Dell along with Google and Yahoo, Amazon and the giants of the web and I world will falter and their profits decline dramatically.

    A tellecommunications company will fail causing the federal government broadband tender complications. The government will react with more hostility to Telstra and the stripping of the telecommunications backbone from their control will move to becoming a reality. Telstra's shares will decline to below $A3.00. Qantas shares will decline as will many other Australian corporate icons. An Australian university and a number of Tafe Colleges will post losses causing a severe problem for their respective state governments. One regional Ausralian university will fail rquiring a government bail out which will be resisted. Those universities moving to US style study programmes for under graduate courses will suffer a decline in student enrollments. The labor
    education revolution will be affected by this university failure reducing funds available to other Australian universities.


    January 6, 2009: Australia's Treasurer, Wayne Swan, says that Australian banks are all top notch. But are they all in the same condition and do we know everything?

    Australia's banks are not all that forthcoming about their status and particularly their exposure to calamity for example sub prime and securitised instruments. Not all four big banks (National Australia, Commonwealth, Wespac and Australia and New Zealand Bank are surely not all in the same rosy situation. Is one of them keeping something from us? We will know very soon which it is and what it is. Could it be the Board, and management, fear a response from consumers, or a political reaction under the Australian government deposit gaurantee? Are all of the Australian banks operating their loan books to the full capacity or is one, or more, not lending all that much? Is the economy being oiled by the Australian government and not by the banks as well?


    Federal Minister Nick Sherry may lose his superannuation portfolio in 2009. Maybe he will be given another portfolio though I think this is unlikely as Kevin Rudd goes for intellectual firepower, in a reshaping of the Australian government ministries, in February - March 2009. The Australian Public Service is in for a reshaping at senior levels in the first half of 2009.

    A revaluation of China's currency, rent revaluations in Australia and the over-rating of the capabilities of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the impact of monetary policy


    Some years ago, Senator and federal Minister Nick Sherry went through a dark patch in his life. He recovered and went on to become a federal Minister in the Rudd Labor government. The Senator is responsible for the vital portfolio that covers superannuation. It is not clear why he is qualified to hold this portfolio since he has not demonstrated a demonstrable vision, let alone an understanding of the criticality of the role that super plays in the economic landscape of Australia beyond providing money for retirement.

    Nick Sherry is a member of the tribe that openly reviled, and dismissed, Paul Keating's blue print for Australia's future using superannuation as the pivotal tool. Following the defeat of the Keating labor government a spineless, and decrpeit labor party, cowered when anyone barke at them. They were, and are a sad lot. Perhaps Bill Kelty alone is the epitome of loyalty. He was, and is, like Keating, a deep critical thinker. That is abnormal in Australian politics and society in general. There is a myth that the Australian voter is sophisticated in their political assessment. That is simply rot. Barely 5% of the nation's population creates everlasting and beneficial change. There are dills earning large amounts of money on all sides of politics, business and community. They occupy positions of power, and influence, and some (like John Howard and peter Costello) do ever lasting damage, no matter how the spin doctors and acquiescent media dress up history.

    When John Howard broke his promise to migrate the current system above an employer required 9% contribution, Nick Sherry and his labor colleagues were mute. Not every employer contributes. The employer contribution is not only mandated in awards. All other employers put it in as part of the annual monetary (salary) package. A lot of people are funding the compulsory contribution themselves up front. As the private sector debt ballooned, Howard and Costello played the entrenched promotion of political self interest, and political bile and bastardry, ahead of the public interest. Despite their crude efforts, and the lack of will of the labor party to challenge them, industry super funds blossomed. Vested interests, ably supported by the liar spin doctors (parasites) of the public purse that inhabit Ministers offices, tried desperately to destroy the foundation of Keating and Bill Kelty's creation - compulsory contributed superannuation. When Nick Sherry was spokesperson, before the Rudd government came to power, he did little to challenge this bastardry of the power collective. He really is a poor performer hidden away in the government spin doctor machinery.

    One trillion dollars of investment potential was created in a little over decade. It might have been $1.5 trillion if not for the myopia of Howard and his Treasurer. As Howard and Costello trumpeted their attack on public sector debt, in the back room $A600,000,000,000 shackled the nation.

    Howard came to office on the back of the foolishness of the Reserve bank of Australia which put interest rates up, crippling growth. Bill Kelty, a member of the RBA, during Keating's Prime time as Prime Minister, opposed the interest rate rise. Today history may judge him as the most intelligent member of that Reserve Bank of Australia, Board. The RBA is given to much credence, and pumping up, by politicians and an unenquiring media. The sport of predicting a new rate movement has become the primary motivation of commentators. They, the RBA, totally failed to anticipate the financial tsunami set out below in this web site.

    Perhaps even more critical, for the nation, they (the RBA, the labor party, media, commentators and most of the voting population) failed to grasp, comprehend and embrace, Paul Keating's vision, just as Nick Sherry appears to have failed to grasp the importance of the level of contribution to superannuation. All that Rudd has is the surplus and that is in itself fictional too. Sherry and the labor government need to come to terms with the criticality of the balance between savings and consumption. When to save and when to spend. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd may have been gullibly sucked into spending $A10 billion of the public's money on a Christmas splurge.

    The current (false) assumption is that the economy can be saved by spending. The second (false) assumption is that there can be constant growth. The third is that monetary policy is a panacea tool to rectifying problems and changing behaviour or at least modifying it. Altering the cash rate is tinkering and the amount of interest (monthly payments) by home buyers, and its effect on the economy, is over stated and definitely over emphasised.

    Treasurer Wayne Swan may yet turn out to be a hidden visionary, grasping knowledge of the more complex issues that his colleague Minister Sherry does not demonstrate. The employee contribution into superannuation must increase. It must increase in 2009 and soon. It must go to 10% immediately and then to 12% and to 15% and then 25% by end of 2010. The proposition that the nation cannot afford this is a demonstrable lack of understanding of the facets of the real economy and a failure in complex thinking and analysis. Federal Treasury, under Ken Henry, is not a shining example of critical, lateral and visionary thinking. The media and analysts have not picked up on the mediocrity of his stewardship of Treasury and the constant failure to accurately predict. Politicians, and bureaucracy, is a self interested club in which the media (press gallery) are willing and complicit players. Let us observe if the Prime Minister has the fortitude to challenge the club and break from past practice. Nick Sherry cannot be left in charge if superannuation unless he offers an intelligent vision and plan.

    In the near future China will revalue its currency. It must turn inward, quickly, to domestic investment and stop selling cheap (exchange manipulated) exports on the world market. If it does not then its people will suffer and many may even starve. There is growing unrest. The revaluing will cause a major problem for Australia (particularly commodities) not to mention the rest of the world. The proposition that India, and China, are the power houses of the future that can shield Australia (even the world) is another myth peddled by
    experts.

    There will be a revaluation of rents in Australia as property values fall, quite dramatically. They will not fall by 6% as some forecast but in some areas by 10% and in other areas property will plummet, in February and March 2009, by 25% perhaps, in some localities, more. A large number of real estate agents (2,000+) and financial planners (3,000+) will lose their jobs.


    December 2008: Bye bye Sol Trujillo it hasn't been nice
    Sol Trujillo, the imported CEO of Australia's largest telco, Telstra, may get an unexpected Christmas present. I have an expectation that the Board of Telstra will cut its ties with Mr Trujillo in attempt to ward off some serious questions from shareholders about the strategy to attack Australia's federal government, day after day. They neeed to begin to protect their personal positioons of power and influence due to their miscalculation of the mind set of the Minister, Senator Conroy. A key power broker within the Rudd labor government.

    I predict that Sol will not be at the helm of Telstra once the expert panel delivers its assessment of the tenders lodged to build the federal government's national broad band network. He claims that the door is open for Telstra to go back and negotiate its position having been kicked out of the tender process. It seems that the Board, the CEO, senior managers of Telstra and maybe its legal advisers are not conversant with how serious the public servants take the rules of probity and the integrity of the Australian government tendering processes. There will be no future negotiations to involve Telstra in the tender and ultimate contract to build the network. The CEO, and the Board, have set Telstra on a path that will probably result in the telco's domination of the market being broken by the government.

    If liberal Senator Nick Minchin tries to blame the Minister with hs hollow rhetoric and drivel, about how Telstra has to be involved, then he will be open to questioning as to the previous government's handling of Telstra, running with their tails between their legs. Then there is the matter, and record, of his own performance in government, as Minister for Industry and Science. He was the driving force of the Howard government's Light Metals Strategy (2002), a high cost, high profile marketing spin by the government which turned out be mostly piss and win, but which cost the Australian and Queennsland governments, the CSIRO and shareholders a large amount of money and credibility. This strategy was founded on the theory that magnesium was the metal of the future and that Australia would become a major player in the global market. The government publicly backed the Queensland magnesium proponent and listened to the fortune tellers within CSIRO, the private sector and the Department. The ten Minister for Science, Peter McGauarn, was not so gullible.


    A RISE IN THE LACK OF LOGIC AND SKILL
    WITHIN ENTERPRISE AND GOVERNMENTS?
    December 2008: Every day there are a myriad of exampls that perplex the logical mind. One example is the Qantas Board and management. In mid 2008 there is the failed takeover bid for the airline, engineered from within Qantas. Then at the end of 2008 we hear that Qantas and British Airways are engaged in merger talks. This proposition defies logic since there is legislation in both the United Kingdom (relative to British Airways) and in Australia (relative to Qantas) that blocks any party from owning a majority of the either airline and in particular an international investor. This implies a 51% share holding within the sovereign country for each. Yet the management proceeds, and the Board condones, a fantasy that this can be overcome by creative accounting and financial structures using a third party entity? What do the airlines have in terms of magic powers, and creative engineering, that would outweigh all of the logical propositions that this cannot happen?

    What is the basis of the deterioration of logic, and skill, that is appearing within the Boards, and management, of corporations, enterprise and
    governments, within Australia and it seems, generally, across the globe?


    BAD LUCK KEV AND WAYNE
    Strategy of giving the low income earners a cool $A10 billion to spend for Christmas will fail
    What an irony. The whole failure of the world systems of capitalism, banking and commerce, resulted form the unbridalled spending by those who could not afford it. Monetary policy alone has failed as an instrument and yet the Reserve Bank of Australia and the current federal government of Kevin Rudd continue with the fantasy and lowering interest rates. Perhaps they have not counted? There are far more people earning income from deposits and investments, now having their interest cut, than there are people with mortgages that can be altered. Is the Austra;lian government Treasury actually that incompetent that it cannot count and is the Reserve Bank that myopic? Do they think that lowering interest rates flows on anywhere effectively? Only a mix of fiscal Keynesian methodologies and monetary policy may work. And one supposes that is the objective of Kevin Rudd and the team in exhorting the recipients to go on a spending spree. What about those who have money? Lots of it. Do Kev and wayne think they are a shoo in? Typical labor party narrow sighting. Hit the ones who can least afford it and con them. Malcolm Turnbull, and the federal opposition, are totally irrelevant here. Their probems are not the National Party and Barnaby Joyce. He is highly regarded as a conviction pollitician. The others are not. M. Turnbull needs to get an idea, or two, to offer to help Prime Minister Rudd, and his team,who seem to be supported by a public service devoid of any ideas or accurate analytical capabilities and private sector associations that are seemingly as inept and devoid of analytical and thoughtful talent.

    So what will happen when the money arrives in the bank accounts of the recipients? Well they will spend, and shock horror, a thousand retail outlets will still close across Australia, a multi dozen of car dealers will still close and thousands of people will still be out of jobs in early 2009. The experts at the helm of the major enterprises and the Australian government Treasury have demonstrated the limits of their skills. Everyone is a champion in the power collective of government, and business, when all is well. Then when it all goes to hell they are still champions, and experts, to be listened to.






    November 2008: The Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Australian parliament, Ms Julie Bishop will surrender her position as shadow treasurer in the first week of December 2008 allwoing Malcolm Turnbull time to pick, and groom, a new shadow treasurer. What is not clear is why Kevin Rudd soldiers on with Wayne Swan as Treasurer. Is it that he is from Queensland? Mr Swan is a tortuous Treasurer and many in the national electorate cringe at his struggling performance. Thus his days are numbered. There will be a front bench ministerial reshuffle, by the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, before federal parliament resumes in 2009. The Treasurer is working hard to develop his graps and abilities and he has a right to grow into the role, particularly if we assume that the opposition offerings, for the position of shadow treasurer, such as Andrew Robb, are seriously below par in comparison. The liberal opposition generally is, lack lustre and , a party of career politicians, many of whom have had their day and should consider collecting their generous superannuation. However most of them love their job and who am I to pontificate that they are not up to the representation of their constituents. My issue is with the operation and manipulation of parliament. And the rubbish where the leader requires the resignation of a person from a role because they cross the floor and vote their constituent's will. This requirement smacks of an arrogant and archaic fiefdom that corrodes our parliaments.


    November 2008: AUSTRALIA'S GROWTH RATE AND
    THE MISERABLE GOVERNMENT OF NEW SOUTH WALES


    There are senior decision makers and experts in Australia and a large percentage of the population who are going along as if nothing major is going to happen to the nation or to them.

    As at November 2008, the Australian labor government of Kevin Rudd, based on Treasury analysis and advice, predicts a growth rate for Australia into the coming quarter and into next year at 2%. I say it will be 1.2% and perhaps -0.9% by end of January, going into March 2009. Let us see who is right. Look below in this web site and determine your opinion.

    The spiral downwards, in Australia, will continue into the middle of 2009. It will have its greatest impact between january 2009 and August 2009. Property values will dive, rentals crumble, repossessions and defaults will rise. The Members Equity Bank will suffer a negative perception, and may require an injection of funds. Up to 10% of mining projects in Western Australia will be shelved and some will simply run out of cash. The warfare manufacturing ship building industry in South Australia, and car manufacturing generally, in South Australia and Victoria will stumble, despite the federal government's subsidies to both industries.

    Will it be 40 of the Australian car dealerships that will fail between December 2008 and May 2009 or will it be 85? What will the government do gaurantee car finance if procured via a bank or agreed financial institution? Will it be only 15 retail chains that collapse or will it be many more? How many advertising agencies, and media corporations, will disappear? Would you like to name the two?

    What proportion of the ABC Learning Group's operations will the federal government be forced to buy to keep child care facilities available? Ms Sally Ann Atkinson said that "it is bizarre" that there could be loss making entities within the ABC learning Group, of which she is the former Chairman, when the governmnet provides subsidies. She was oblivious to this occurrence. How many other well paid and respected persons are as oblivious to reality in their business sphere?

    How many nursing, and aged care, residential enterprises will collapse? Will it be twenty child care centres, 36 or 52? Will it be five aged care facilities or eleven? Who is calculating these likely events, and working on strategies and counter activities, inside government? The federal Treasury? Spare me they can barely analyse how much money the government gets in let alone anything beyond the walls of their myopic vision. What is their plan? Spend like hell. Dr. Ken Henry, the Canberra based head of the Department of Treasury, is working on a new taxation model. Well that may well be the only worthwhile expertise available from the federal agency. The
    climate change model put out by them in November 2008 is laughable and a fiction. Yet the relevant Ministers, Penny Wong and Peter Garrett carry on as if this is a credible piece of analysis and the Emmissions Trading Scheme they envisaged last year wil actually be relevant in 2010 yet alone be up and running. It will not be, just like Stephen Conroy's grand plan for broadband will also not be up and running any time soon. In fact the tenderers will call it a day and walk away. The $A4.5 billion contribution from government is now valued at about half via the falling exchange rate. The surplus is rapodly disappearing. The education revolution? Not now, and not during this current term of the Rudd government. There is no revolution, the claim made by the Prime Minister that he would institute a revolution was just rhetoric and a grandiose exaggeration for the purposes of electioneering. It is part of a canvas that now maps a tendency for verbose, sometimes empty rhetoric that might well be delivered in a few hundred words or perhaps by remaining silent. Do not look to the opposition parties, in Australia's governments, for better performance, for they are as devoid of ideas and solutions.

    How much is fraud on medicare, the Australian health system, welfare and other government funded programmes? Probably $A4 billion plus, a year, I would estimate. This will come the public's notice in 2009.


    The Treasurer Wayne Swan looks, and behaves, like a man out of his depth. There are no real ideas other than spend and a nebulous regulation theory. Already the international banks, that have greedily soaked up taxpayers funds are telling their staff, customers and nations as a whole that the respective governments will have no operational say in their business. George Bush says that regulation failures in the USA did not cause this situation. He has a mirror of incompetence here in Australia called the New South wales government.

    The downward driver of Australia's growth rate will be the incompetent, and dangerous, labor
    government of NSW under the stewardship of Premier Nathan Rees and Treasurer, Eric Roozendaal. This miserable government still has three yaers to run. These two, and their cabinet coleagues, are about to take NSW into a landslide of economic diasater and in doing so will take the nation with them. Roozendall bables on about AAA ratings for the state as if they are worth anything or mean anything. He is living in the past.


    October 2008: LARGE NUMBER OF AUSTRALIANS OBLIVIOUS TO THE COMING STORM
    Some Australian corporation's morals, and ethics, may be questionable.


    Woolworths is Australia's most pervasive retail chain. In the week of October 21, 2008 it was advertising its new credit card. Woolworths is offering an interest free period to February 2009 on all purchases. Just prior to this the Prime Minister had announced that the Australian governnment would make a single funding distribution of some $10,000,000,000 to pensioners, and families, just prior to Christmas. I have an expectation that a large amount of that money will flow through Woolworth's cash registers. At a time when a major economic crisis approaches Australia Wollworth's is callously enticing Australians into further credit card debt, timed for Christmas. There has been a significant increase in the commitment of annual net income to paying credit card debt in Australia. At the same time the National Australia Bank is issuing a new NAB - Qantas Frequent Flyer credit card. How many credit cards do indebted Australians need? One wonders at the sensitivity of these two major Australian enterprises and their role in the future of the nation's economic, and financial, propserity? I prefer other places to spend my money.

    On Saturday 14 October 2008 a woman, and her husband, bid for a house in Melbourne. They pay $A30,000 above the vendor's expectation. They made the decision to spend an additional thirty grand ($A30,000) because the Reserve bank had reduced interest rates by 1% and they had heard there would be more cuts. To my mind they made a bad call. Australia's propery is way over priced and there will be a major correction of differing variations across Australia in 2009 and 2010. Real estate agents across the countrty are still clinging to a dream, now fading, that the prices people have paid for houses in Australia reflect value and are the benchmark upon which to go forward as if nothing bad is, or will be, happening.

    Hosuing purchases are nbeing made at some 7 times median annual income and the agents think that can be sustained? The houses sold in the past two, to three years, are overpriced between to my reckoning at between 25% and 60%. Some in casual work or in unskilled employment are very worried. Those employed in manufacturing and low skiled jobs are facing a declining employment market. Major firms will scale back and some will fail. I estimate that about 15 retail clothing, and other product chains, candle and aromatic products chain stores, sports goods, hardware, auto mart style stores and numerous small businesses, will fail in 2009.

    The young professionals still think that there is a blue sky all the way forward and they have nothing to fear because they have always been able to get a job. Sydney wil be very hard hit in the professional sector. The Western Australian mining boom will stagger and a number of sun rise companies will face the evening twilight. Unemployment will rise to 6% between November 2008 and March 2009 and then continue upwards towards 10%. Foreclosures on houses will rise by 5% to 6%. Even if people who bought the houses survive the loan storm their house will be valued below what they borrowed. Not some of them, all of them. Those who renovated will find that they have over capitalised. Rents will fall in 2009.

    Mobile phone companies, and elecronics manufacturers, game machine makers and the home entertainment sellers all think that their sales will be maintained. The end of the love affair with technology is nigh. People will not be able to afford them. Telstra's income will fall dramatically in 2009 along with Optus and a phone company, maybe 3, will disappear from Australia. There is no economic saviour and the days of Keynes are upon us.




    (September 2008) WE WISH YOU A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAP (LESS) NEW YEAR.....
    A NUMBER OF AUSTRALIAN RETAIL CHAINS WILL GO TO WALL


    Santa Clause Kevin Rudd has cpme early. Yet as Christmas comes, and goes, in 2008 unfortunately a number of retailers will disappear in February 2009, if not sooner, as the recession hits Australia. They are the small, narrow item stock style retailers selling, among other things, the cheap Chinese clothes and trinkets. They are the discount electrical retailers. Hotels, and motels, will take beating as will the airlines. Holidays wil be close by, maybe in the caravan park or the humble cabin.

    Unemployment will rise. The nation's workforce is 20% casual, and 20% self employed, they will suffer first and the cascade wil begin. These are largely the electronic discounters and the cheap imported Chinese made clothing products, and other trinkets, that infest the malls of the nation. Why Australian consumers demand and buy low grade products is a behavioural science exercise in its own right. The greater volume of their purchases are junk and rubbish. Australia has too many shopping centres, and common junk chain retailers, for the size of population and the number of tourists coming to Australia each year.
    1. HOW MANY AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS CAN SURVIVE?


      What business (es)will Wesfarmers jettison?

      Even if a large numner of people spends the government's largesse at Bunnings and Coles over Christmas, how much cash flow is being generated, into Wesfarmers, that it can sustain a $A1.2 billion dollar debt? With coal, and resources, in decline what business is the cash cow? Coles, and Bunnings, with the latter being the better source of funds? No single financial institution will front the necessary funds when the refinancing is due in 2009. Will there be a consortia of twenty six financial institutions and at what price? maybe a hege fund but tey are on the nose. Bunnings may have to go or Coles, maybe both. Alternatively Wesfarmers could sell a mine. In any event Wesfarmers has run into a narrow pathway leading to a precipice. The question is how long before they go over?


    2. The New Kings of the World Are Not Microsoft and Google
      The End of Vapour Ware


      Are you selling cheap Chinese junk? If you are find a new product and supplier. Is your business based on the continued dominance of the Internet? is it a mobile communications provider business with a focus on downloads from the net? If so think again.

      My clients importing goods, and services, were advised (September 3, 2008) to adjust their FX rates down to 0.60 cents, as the Australian dollar would plummet.

      The Japanese Yen will be the major beneficiary of the financial crisis. George Bush cannot save America and nor can Barak Obama, this spells the end of the current US empire and its ascendancy over others. It will no doubt rise again. China is not the saviour of the world economy. Antipathy towards China will grow quickly. Its products will be shunned by consumers. The change agent is Japan. It is awakening from a deep sleep. Russia is a nation steeped in corruption and engaged in the recreation of the cold war. The Russia banking system is being masked by the government. The United Kingdom is going to take the place of America as the leading financial centre of the world along with Japan. The Eurpean Community union is cracked and will take years to mend. There will be calls to abandon the Euro as nations go their own way again.

      Wall Street has lost not only its lustre but also its credibility. Expect tech stocks and companies such as Google, Yahoo and web based vapourware to suddenly plummet. The internet will lose its domination of stock values. There will be a move to traditional industries and conservative investments.


    3. RESERVE BANK CAN ONLY USE INTEREST RATE CUTS WITH EXTREME CARE
      The utility of monetary policy will be well and truly blunted
      Treasury's forecasts as previously predicted are rubbery and wrong.


      The Australian government is becoming less strident in its demands that banks pass on any cuts to the cash rate in Australia that may be made by Australia's Reserve Bank (October 2008). The Opposition party is demanding that the full cut be passed on. This is opportunistic twaddle and belies an underlying problem. The question arises what is the purpose of cutting rates to boost consumption, and spending, in a climate of huge personal credit card debt and low savings? How much more can consumers buy? Nevertheless the instruments of management in the modern free market world are usually "monetary policy". They become Keynesian when it suits the administration of the United States. The nation itself is like a gaggle of politicians. Changing to suit their own needs and the world can go hang.

      Australia typically stays pure. Astralia hpnours its deals, and plays the free trade agreement game whilst the USA and others do not. The USA is both greedy and opportunistic. The ethics and morality oof this nation's power collective are on full display. Our farmers do the right thing and suffer. So is it that the Reserve Bank of Australia will apply conventional thinking. They are more likely to cut big in the current crisis (October 2008) rather than the middle 0.50%. The experts and the pundits wioll all be startled. The media will express shock, surprise and all gasp that no one predicted this.

      Read the material in this site. They are mediocre in their assessmenst but as a club they close ranks and support their own members and versions of the truth. What if the bank reduced the cash rate by 0.75% or even 1.0%. They probably will make a cut in this range. There will be a clamour that no one knew or would guess such a transaction.

      If we are reducing cash rates to stimulate housing then what about an over priced market. If we are doing it for business then there is question as to the cost of funds for import versus export industries. We buy too much low grade product from China. The retailers selling this garbage should be out of business since they operate on a subsistence basis with cheap casual labour. The exchange rate plays a major role in how our businesses perform. Imports are dearer so why are we importing so much of poor quality? To assuage a gluttonous cheap consumer.

      The liberals under John Howard and Peter Costello implemented superannuation incentives whereby savings were placed in funds that have now declined in value on a great scale and not in banks. They robbed ones sctor, the banks of deposits, to appease their constituents, and in doing so placed them in peril. They should have adopted Keating's 15% mandated superannuation contribution in their early yaers. They too, were 9are) conventional, even mediocre, in their policy reform, processes and thinking.

      The political rhetoric of the two major parties, has focused on "working families" under the influence of spin doctors whose focus was on winnin g elections and not on reality. The politicians also focused on "house hold mortgages" holders and yet these class of consumers are not the dominant demographic in Australia. Two thirds of the population do not have mortgages. A large slice of the population are not working families.

      The population of Australia is aging. The people with cash are not spending nor are they now putting the excess into superannuation. They are looking for safe havens that pay interest. Thus savings accounts are important. Banks need savings when they cannot get inter bank credit and also to reduce their costs and imprive their overall business. Thus the Reserve Bank has to find the fine line balance. When does one stop cutting the cash rate? Now, for the stimulus wil be wasted.

      When will the silent majority of "non orking families" and those who do not ahve debt be no longer silent demanding that the cash rate instead be raised? This quandery will be addressed in early 2009 when the nation feels the full impact of the global recession. It will come when land and house values plummet across the board. Meanwhile in Australia between October, and December, 2008 real spending will decline and a large number of retailers will go to the wall and out of business. The "never have experienced bad times" younger generation will find that many of them are out of a job and/or bankrupt.


    4. NO PAID MATERNITY LEAVE FOR AUSTRALIA UNTIL 2011 - 2012


      The Minister for Families. Ms Jenny Macklin, in the Australian parliament, has expressed joy over the Australian Productivity Commission's proposition for eighteen weeks paid maternity leave. The Prime Minister is supportive. Under the proposal business pays eighteen weks maternity leave to the mother and two weeks to the father. The money is recovered by the tax system from the government. Business also pays the 9% superannuation levy. Thus busines has to fund the scheme in the first instancea nd ten recover the money later except for the super payment which they foot.

      The Minister's euphoria will turn to sorrow in 2009 when she becomes aware that the Rudd (cabinet) government will not put such a sheme into law due to the problems created by the financial system meltdown and the damage resulting to the Australian economy. The Productivity Commission has been sidelined by the Prime Minister on major social, and economic issues, since he came to power so there is no indication that it carries any influence. In any event the financial crisis will deepen and create a fundamental economic barrier to such a socialist dream coming to fruition. Ms Macklin opught to know better than talk up such propositions with fullsome, and effusive, rhetoric. Ms Macklin is a hard working, and competent, Minister who should enjoy better support for her efforets and policy thinking.


    5. There will be no fully functioning, and complete, emissions trading scheme (ETS) in place in Australia by 2010. Popular support for Climate Change, and the Rudd proposed ETS (emissions trading scheme), will wane from October 2008 as opponents gear up to create barriers and the economic climate in Australia deteriorates.

      Has the Rudd government identified the raft of hidden influences that inform and alter public opinion. These are not just corporate interests. They are also individuals of varying and divergent motivations.

      The Australian banking system will come under severe strain in October 2008 and during the latter months of 2008. One of the banks suffers stress which will become a significant political issue in 2009. The Federal government, despite flaying Malcolm Turnbull for suggesting a fund be established to buy securities, will do just that. Ostensibly the argument will be put that the Tresaurer, Wayne Swan, has done it to buy high value securities. More likely it is there to provide a life line to a floundering financial institution. The Australian Tresaurer continues to create doubts in the business world regarding his ability to performa and create innovative solutions.

      A blind aceptance of (US head of treasury) Henry Paulson's bail out plan for the US system, by Prime Minister Rudd, without having considered the scope, and definition of what was proposed, will haunt him. His embrace of the plan leaves him somewhat on a limb when the Congress does not come on board to accept the proposal.

      Mr. Rudd's vocal support will create a question around his perception, and candour, about how connected he is internationally, what he knows and how he can deal with a financial crisis of the dimesnions Australia will experience. The US power colective has embraced their own perceptions as to their infallibility wityh gusto. The venal belief that property, shares and a meery go round of complicated financing and lkeveraging will always be on the up. The big end of town in the USA is branded as seeking to look after themselves through the bail out. Mr. Paulson is a former Wall Streeet financier from Goldman Sachs. The credibility and respect is dominished. Mr. Ben Bernanke the head of the US federal reserve is lacking the stature to drive the medicine through the political barriers. A presidential election looms and pay back is on politician's minds. The American people are not simply skeptical they are totally disbleieving and lacking trust.

      In Australia the mass population embraced the belief that property values would always rise. That they could fund lavish borrowings on interest only terms through an ever rising market. The access to easy credit to buy the latest gadget and the youth inexperience and naivety (having never lived through a down turn - jobs alaways available) combine in a storm.

      At first it was thought that only the poorer, and less economically, well off regions would suffer declines. Not so. The bubble bursts in every suburb, rich and poor. In Australia, mortgage defaults will rise in the Sydney suburbs, in Wollongong and Newcastle. Regional towns will be affected. In Western Australia, mainly in Perth, and in parts of Melbourne suburbia there will be a fall in market values and major ructions in working families' lives. In the Northern Territory investment in new housing property is still climbing. There is a belief that protection against economic calamity is offered via the ever growing Australian military presence and the new gas project. It is not clear yet whether this is the case. The federal government's budget will not achieve the level of inflows predicted by Treasury and the surplus will be greatly affected. Taxes will rise in 2009 at federal and state level. Alternatively an argument will be put to increase the Goods and Services Tax to 15% I would think this push for increase would begin about March 2009.


      CHINA STUMBLES - FINAL QUARTER OF 2008

      The property and stock markets will stumble dramatically in China as the growth pahse slows dramatically from October 2008. This will catch the resources industry and major trading nations by surprise. It will also cause trouble for Australians investing in developing trade and business in China. The down turn wil cause a commodity fall and also a significant impact on states relying upon iron ore and coal trade (Western Australia, Queensland NSW). Western Australia will have severe budgetary problems as will New South Wales and Queensland. The increase prices demanded, from China's steel factories, by international resources companies will act against them and they will not get the volume that they think they will in the next twelve months. China will reduce its purcahses and move imports from a wide range of providers to a narrow band of cheaper suppliers, reshaping world markets. The dragon will slumber and then go to sleep as the economy growth diminishes.


    6. Malcolm Turnbull, opposition leader in the Australian federal parliament, will whittle away Kevin Rudd's lead in the polls. Mr. Turnbull's skill as a banker, and an orator, will place him ahead of Treasurer, Wayne Swan, in credibility resulting in Mr Swan's removal from the Treasury portfolio in the early 2009. A dramatic event in th Australian financial scene and an abandonment of support for Kevin Rudd, in climate change, will cause extreme political danger, and reshuffle of the labor cabinet in mid 2009. The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will be shackled by his own reliance on the need for enquiry and examination before any decision can be made or any risk can be taken. The public service bureaucrat is not well known for intuitive judgement and risk adoption.


    7. The end of the Della Bosca and Neal dynasty. NSW labor government Minister John Della Bosca and federal member Belinda Neal's influence with the state, and federal labor parties, will end in October 2008. John Della Bosca is currently (September 2008) Minister for Education in the Australian state of New South Wales. It is not clear what qualifies him for this important role.

      The Australian labor party, at every level, political and branch, most obviously in New South wales, and their advisers and employees, may benefit from undertaking classes in
      ethics

      Belinda Neal, particularly seems to have a problem with telling the truth, in the federal parliament, when she denied making statements about a liberal member's baby becoming a "demon". It was according to Neal an issue of interpretation. THis is even after the microphone's picked up her exact words. She claims a lack of judgement. Rather Ms Neale might reflect on morals, and character, that a politician in government and indeed in parliament, might aspire to rather than judgement. Unfortunately the greater number of Australian politicians, and more particularly labor, may confuse the term poor judgement with what they really reflect and that is poor ethics and a lack of moral compass. The self importance of the politician, so obvious in modern Australian politics, demonstrable in the behaviour of Ms Neale, and others, such as Western Australia's Troy Boswell, now the government Treasurer, exceeds the public interest of having such people in parliaments. But democrracy is a double edged sword and Ms Neal represents who she represents. This demographic of voter has a right to representation regardless. Ms Neale thinks she will be the preseelected candidate for labor in the federal seat of Robertson. I do not believe that this will be the case.


    8. The financial collapse of American capitalism proceeds at apace. As indicated below there are more banks to fall and major lenders and industry will crumple. Wall Street will come under close scrutiny. In Australia a bank will strumble if not fall of neither the Reserve bank nor the federal government can countenance such an event. The blind trust of Treasurer Wayne Swan and Assistant Treasurer Chris Bowen, in the Reeserve bank and the rating agencies that grant AAA ratings to banks demonstrates questionable judgement. There is going to be a recession but not of the same type as the Great Depression. This will hit hard in December 2008 and early 2009. The labor federal government will be caught unable to respond and wayne Swan's tenure as Treasurer wil end, around March 2009 if not sooner.


    9. (September 2008) Bye bye Morris! In NSW the end of Morris Iemma is nigh. Along with him is Reba Meagher as Health Minister and Michale Costa as Treasurer. The Premier will be toppled by the number kings Tripodi and Obeid. these two are the faces of a corrupt, and coroded, labor party. Privatisation of the power industry is the catalyst. John Robertson, of Unions NSW, another player in the tawdry labor party is slated to enter the Upper House. This is how the labor party treats the people of NSW, wioth utter contempt. Public office and parliamentary membership is a patronage system. The opposition leader barry O'Farrell will lose what little credibility he may have now in the coming months and the liberal party will have its own rout.


    10. In the first week of September 2008 the voters in Western Australia will demonstrate the growing disenchantment with the two major parties. I exhort the readers of these web sites in Western Australia to send the two major parties a message, which they probably will not actually get. The National party is always being written off by the pundits. They are bizarre toom often in their demands and reading of how things really are. The boom in Western australia is cream mainly for the federal government which rips the states off. The Greens apparently are on the rise. There is only one certainty the people of Australia have little choice in quality politicians and quality government. Western Australia and NSW are examples in point. No matter the outcome the leaders of the parties will spin it. Alan Carpenter, and his mates, are not as sharp as they tthink they are and the liberals are the same. They are a laughable lot and not in a funny, entertaining sense. The voting system, in Australia, tends to favour major parties to the disadvantage of those the people might want to vote for. The parliaments of the nation are not representaative of electorates. I say even stevens over there, hung on their own petards. Someone unexpected will have the final say as to who is in government. Hardly worth commenting on, but not as corrupt as NSW.


    11. What a piece of work the NSW labor party is. A tyrannical trade unionist, John Robertson, calls the tune, whilst playing a significant role in steering NSW towards the bankruptcy. He has demonstrated a gross lack of ecomomic evaluation capability. An inability to see the outcome of his actions and decisons. So many trade union leaders in the nation, particularly among the under educated sgements of their membership are of this ilk. They hold the nation back. he is an ideological thug in terms of politics with little credibility in intellectual assessment of how the state should be governed. having a brain, and skills, for rising, and maintaining, power within the NSW labor party is probably a pointer to a future of failure in government and representation. Labor members in the parliament, Tripodi, and Obeid, may be other examples. He is destroying the peoples' democracy and is set to get a place in the upper house of parliament. He probably will get a minitsry too, demonstrating how vile the party is. What a rotten system this is. Health Minister Reba Meagher, should have been turfed ages ago, and Premier Morris Iemma and Treasurer Micahel Costa may as weell quit. The parliamentart members are a discgraceful lot who havev their snouts well and truly in the public trough and their own political interests, like the Della Bosca family, before the hapless voters. The most talented is the Ms Carmel Tebbut,, wife of federal member Anthony Albanese,but she will not get a go for the leadership in this mysogynist political sewer. This state is not a joke in terms of government it is a sad, sad indictment of the Australian laborn party and the liberal party as well. The rubbish over privatisation of the power industry ensures that the people of NSW will not get services and infrastructure and will be saddled with people chosen by the faceless labor party apparatchiks of Sussex Street. Decrepit and parasitic politicians, and sycophantic mandarins, and many, many lazy public sector workers, are entrenched in some form of dynastic feudalistic society disengaged from real life. They all need to go. Costa's antics will cause the Imme a government to crumple in a heap as the vipers of the party bite them into political oblivion. The political talent pool is awful. I really cannot advise my clienst to do business with the government or public service, so we concentrate our efforts elsewhere. There is not much choice though. Mining, and resources, mask a woeful perfromance and no real opportunities given the lack of innovation, and abilities, of all Australian governments and public sectors. It is quite appalling and very dangerous to prosperity and future.


    12. In late 2008 and through 2009 - 2010 there will be a major shakeup of Australian media. Some will go broke and others will disappear. The consumers with large, disposable and discretionary, incomes are not listening to or watching commercial media in the numbers becessary to sustain the networks. The quality, and the products, are substandard.


    13. There will be a capital strike in Australia, curtailing investment, if the labor government under Kevin Rudd, proceeds with its Emmissions Trading Scheme
      Carbon Reduction programme,
      in its current form (August 2008). There will be no ETS in place by 2010 as originally stated in the government's election campaign. They have modified the strict timetable by saying it is an "aspirational" start date. The labor government will squander economic credibility in 2008 and 2009. The experts, academics, spin doctors, and strategists, advising the Prime Minister will be "done like a dinner" by seasoned tacticians. Why? Simply because they do not live in the real world. They reside in a rarified atmosphere. Like shooting ducks in a gallery. If this were not a serious set of cross roads for Australia it would be amusing and a challnge. However it is actually disppaointing and soul destroying trying to do business with the 'liberal and labor party apparatchiks and politicians and the senior \ public servants of Australia's governments. The system of governnance, the quality, and the performance of decision makers, is a barrier.

      For many years now I have worked for clients who have conveyed messages, plans and ideas including significant investment proposals to governments only to have their contributions
      ignored. When the politicians and their chosen winners have failed, the cost to the taxpayer has been horrendous, totalling billions. Hubris, ideology and self interest are the hallmarks of governments. They are also their archilles heels. On learns lessons and I no longer care about the morality or the cost since the know all experts, and the bulk of the nation, do not. Think who has been held liable for the massive losses of peples' savings and livelihoods and who has been held accountable?
    14. Steve Bracks, former Premier of Victoria, was contracted by the Rudd labor government to do a new car plan for Australia to 2020. The report and reccommendations are a farce for anybody whocan think and evaluate. it is a political fix at about $3,0000,000,000 of taxpayers' funds. It is not a document or strategy and pllicy to be lauded but the media, the parliaments, major political parties and the perpetual self interest of the power collective will


    15. August 2008: Political commentators, and sephologists, examine the political landscape daily. There are many who would claim to be expert and few who are actually able to interpret and predict accurately. The media analysts, and journalists, who write in the daily newspapers, are hardly experts. Anthony Green is far and away the most balanced and critical assessor. The key attribute and abilities that journalists and polliticians give to voters that they do not possess. The labor, and liberal, party candidates particularly at state and territory elections can be appallingly bad choices, lacking skill, ability, and all too often a moral compass and ethical awareness. The average voter has no clue as to their representatives' persoanl abilities and would not vote if it were optional. They are detached.

      To this end, in mid 2008, there are predictions that labor will be returned handsomely in the Northern Territory, in Western Australia and in the Australian Capital Territory. The latter prediction is correct. on Stanhope is a smart, and articulate, Chief Minister in a highly educated and capable electorate. By comparison the voters of the Northern Territory possess no such comparable abilities and discerning attitudes. Thus labor will suffer a decline in its vote by between 7% and 10% ending its domination of the parliament in the Northern Territory. They will fall over the line by doing deals. The parliament will be reshaped. Not that this matters for they are an average lot. The Northern Territory government will not be able to secure the Inpex LNG project that the Chief Minister touted he could secure as one of his election promises. The Inpex project will, if it gets up in the next five years, which I personally doubt, go to Western Australia. Thus is despite the fact that the territory has an emerging gas industry of great scope.

      In That state the labor party will retain government but they will be disturbed by the outcome. The liberals will gain votes even thougb they are a lack lustre lot like the labor party.


    16. In the land of broad band, the federal Minister for Telecommunications, Mr Stephen Smithb is between a rock and hard place, He will not meet the Prime Minister's preelection deadline of broad banding the nation. He will not even achieve such a feat technically. Life goes on and abor will dance to the tune of the very smart Telstra executives who are battle hardened and of a fighting type. There are no smart typs in the public secor agency of Telecommunicatioosn and Arts since helen Williams got transferred to the (what do they actually do?) Department of Human Services. There is no tendency of the Ruddd government to bring her back? Ms Patricia Smith the current Secretary of telecommunicatioonsa dnthe Arts is not quite up to the task of duelling with Sol Trujillo and his team.


    17. Sometimes it appears that there is a race for one commentator, or expert, to be more outrageous than another. Some claimed that the price of oil would reach $USD200 per barrel relatively shortly in 2008 or 2009. The price of oil will actually drop back dramatically between July 2008 and December 2009.

      Interest rates will hit 12% in Australia, in 2009, and the international credit crisis will evelope corporations beyond financial institutions.

      Kevin Rudd, and his key Ministers, talk of events in 2010, 2011, 2015, 2020 and 2050 based on theoretical studies and reading crystal balls. No one talks of tommorrow or this year. We are heading for an ever increasing doom by some mythical date that no one can be held accountable for if it doews not come to pass. Numbers fly about like confetti and the governmment, and others, talk as if their version of events, or thoewry are fact.


    18. On Climate Change the states will begin to fly from Kevin Rudd. First will be John Brumby and the state of Victoria as the Latrobe Valley unions realise that several thousand jobs wil be wiped out there, and also at Sale and surrounds. Some 1,600, plus megawatts, of generation from power stations are threatened. Then NSW and Western Austrtalia will fly. The price of electricity under the Carbon Reduction Policy will increase well above 16%, to more like 30% or 50% by 2012, or before, if owners of plant need to build reduction facilities. There will be little incentive for new investment.

      Governments, public services, think tanks and industry associations and academics will claim savings or costs, based on a theoretical (made up) priove for carbon and the reduction or incrase thereof. The justification number or statistics will be latered to suit. There will be increased appointments to public relations and communicatoion roles in government and industry and the spin sector ramps up. Carbon price per tonne is likely modeelled on what it costs to sequester a tonne of carbon plus some margin. This is not a real number for the geography, and other significant inputs and factors, impacts the sequester price. There will be no Carbon Reduction scheme in place by 2010 in Australia.


    19. The Australian government will feel the effects of consumer psychology. Those who support Carbon Reductiion now will, at an unknown cost, change their minds when the full aawreness of price, lifestyle and ramifications of the ideology, hits them or they risk losing their jobs.


    20. CLIMATE CHANGE BITES LABOR PARTY


      When kevin Rudd won government he immediately made a loud promotion of his climate change credentials taking a swag of federal party Ministers and public servants and advisers to sign the Kyoto Agreement. He has two Ministers on the high profile public policy portfolio known as "climate change". Senator Penny Wong, and Peter Garrett.

      On the face of Mr Rudd's bravado one might think that he sees the whole thing as somewhat complicated but relatively easy to work out. He has a methodology that he does not share. There is the Green paper and the White paper and this means something in his code of language. The whole exercise is a bureucratic systems one with a dabbling of politics intermingled.

      The Labor Party policy intends to create a carbon trading market. This is an ambitious exercise and the cost of implementation, and management, will exceed $A85 billion plus in just one to two years. Where is Treasury's modelling of the cost?

      The labor cabinet have no business people of experience within its ranks. They have no scientists, and engineers, and no people with experience in economics and finance beyond theory. They are not a representative cross section of the nation. Thus they fly blind on ideology which they underpin with carefully selected scientific evidence porrly communicated. Their independent expert,
      Professor Garnaut, has been examining options. They are fragmenting in their policy ideas and reactions.



      "Climate change"
      has become a battle ground of spin and fifteen minutes of fame for any scientist with a theory. It is now a public relations exercise.

      Peter Garrett's claim to fame is that he was once President of the Australian Conservation Foundation. This is not foundation for the complexities of energy and its foundation of economy. The government will not meet its 2010 target to roll out an emissions trading scheme. It will barely be 2015 if it comes at all. The cost of any scheme will be horrendous on the econpomy with the price of energy rising by up to 500%. This will rippled through all sectors of the economy. The Latrobe valley, brown coal power house of the Victorian economy and a major energy consortia in the nation, will stagger beneath the impost. obs will disappear and the towns be laid waste. In NSW and Queensland the black coal industry will follow suit.

      The labor party will unleash the dragon of inflation and Austrlia's economy will be irreparably damaged. There will be no ETS carbon trading market in place in Australia by 2010.


    21. By - Election Time Bad for the Labor Party


      Saturday 28 June 2008 and there are two by elections for parliaments. In Gippsland Victoria a federal member to be elected and in Kororoit in Victoria, a state member. The federal opposition leader, Brendan Nelson says that labor is a threat in the federal seat of Gippsland. This is rubbish. The labor party dynasty that once controlled the political fortunes of the Latrobe valley - a large energy industry sector - are fractured. The Natioonal party is in ascendancy. The National party have held this seat for something like eight decades. At the last federal election (November 2007) the National Party achieved a swing to it, against the national trend to labor, of just under 2%. In today's election they will exeed this dramatically achieving between 5% - 7%, with the Coalition getting a two party preffered vote swing above 10%, perhaps as high as 14%.

      In the state seat the labor party, lead by John Brumby, will stagger to a line ball of preference votes. Their primary vote will plummet in this state labor seat.



    22. December 2007 - September 2008: WHEN MARKETS CRASH AND THE EXPERTS PREDICTIONS FAIL


      In the archived sites of the Mosaic Portal, for the years 2005, and in material below in this web page, I predicted a major crash of the property and stock markets induced by rampant maket beavhiour. I predict that in 2008 the international financial system will be rocked by the exposure of cowboys engaging in selling questionable financial instruments, poor regulation and control by government security agencies and stock market exchanges.

      The wonder kids of the world in technology and services and many high profile leaders in finance and industry will be shown to be lacking in the extreme. The impact will be horrendous in Australia and particularly the United States. The most vulnerable, seduced by misrepresentation of prospects, will be the worst afflicted.

      In the early days of 2008 you must take your money out of property and your superannuation out of property trusts and put it into cash, gold and high value commodities. Withdraw from the schemes offered by the new breed of mmerchant bankers.
      Flee the financial tsunami beyond the horizon of your awareness.

      Australia's imports will be cheaper in 2008, and our exports much, much dearer as our Australian exchange rate rockets against the US currency. The US currency will go into freefall in mid 2008. Petrol and diesel will rocket in price as speculators run the market.

      The reliance on central banks will be tested as a theory of management of economies. The bogey hedge funds, and margin traders, will be exposed as the instruments of evil overlooked, or ignored, by regulatory agencies. Margin calls, second mortgages and the get rich pass "the debt of cards" game will engulf the world markets. Where will your superannuation go? Ever down and down.

      The stock exchanges (the world's biggest casinos) and the money market traders, and greedy paper creators, will be spotlighted. Brand names will crash and America's Wall Street will experience a financial earth quake. Monetary policy is not enough to givern. Yet it will be trumpeted by governments, like Australia. Rudd and his "wet behind the wars advisers", will be shown to be impotent and will be subject to ridicule and hostility. The inner sanctum of the Prime Minister will bes ubjected to an unprecendted attack by vested interests.

      The Treasurer, wayne Swan, in his election prattle, had but one word in his vocabulary - "inflation". He will demonstrate, in the first half of 2008, that he has little exoertise as to what it actually means and implies.

      The labor party, in the November 2007, election told the Australian people that they could harness grocery and fuel prices. This will turn out to be a hollow promise that will eat them politically. Just as the rhoetoric on climate change will turn hollow and the labor party will be truly tested for its mettle. The leader of the Liberal party, Brendan nelson will fail as leader and be replaced but not by malcolm Turnbull nor by his deputy. The search is underway for a new leader. As it will be against Morris Iemma in NSW.

      There will be no carbon trading scheme in place by 2010.

      There will be a concentration on manipulating cash flow via the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy on interest rates. Banks will ignore this and move their own rates upwards to recover the massive loses of their own hubris and ignorance. The Sustralian Future Fund, established by the Howard government will, inadvertently, find itself supporting banks via the Reserve Bank.

      In May 2008 I told my industry colleagues that the payments and telephone card company Bill Expres, with terminals through newsagents in Austrlia and the bopo prepay debit card (largely used by children) would fail. They checked this out and Bill Express personnel scoffed that this was fantasy. Bill Express will fail, its just a matter of time.

      Exposures to internatoonal mortgages and credit crunches will testv the Australian banking system. Across Australia home ownersa nd investors will turn in their keys as the crisis deepens and America goes heavily into receession in the housing market. Major mortgage lenders in the USa will become insolvent and have to be bailed out by the American government.

      Corporate, and political, spin will be shown for what it is. Beware the Ides of March (2008) for there is a bealk future. Some of you will lose your life's savings.Sell the SVU now for the price of petrol, manipulated by traders and oil refineries lack of investment, will deliberatley rape the globe. Greed abounds and politics is bewildered.


    23. September 2007, despite continued poll results to the contrary I believe at this time, Kevin Rudd, and the labor party, will not win the 2007 federal election by a landslide as generally predicted. Though the media will misrepresent this as a landslide. It will be close in terms of numbers but not seats. How the seats will fall is difficult to predict. Unusual occurrences will be the order. The liberals will be shocked by the antipathy of the voters. Though punishment will not be as major as perceived by the pundits. Yet it will be overstated. Australian media is partisan. It is not intuitive and reasoned. The election will be November 17 or 24, 2007. However this is not the majority opinion.

      Mr Rudd has nor defined his argument beyond a line ball proposition and may or may not win despite the
      deterioration in the trust factor for the Howard government, many senior Ministers and the Prime Minister particularly. This deterioration has been brought about by an ongoing lack of accountability responsibility, questionable integrity in public office, and nasty decisions on the part of a number of Ministers. Decisions for which the justification has been disguised in lies, manipulations and falsehoods. Several Ministers appear oblivious as to how they are perecieved in the electorate particularly Kevin Andrews. Perhaps they dismiss critics on the blind assumption that these people are liberal or Howard haters. They are not all of that ilk. More particularly there are peope who are liabilities in the election.

      This is not to say they are not in essence good people working hard in public office, they are. Yet they seem to lack a moral compass. They are perecived as allowing political interest, and ideology, to over ride common sense, humanity, good governance and administration. Their management, and leadership of the Australian Public Service is nothing less than scandalous and in instances, appalling. The service is highly politicised and controlled by Ministerial advisers. There is lack of ideas. Senior, and other, public servants appear in television commercials championing government programmes and policies. These are not thinly veiled political advertisements they are blatant and insulting. Despite being castigated for this the government continues. They have no moral, and ethical, compasses and quite openly spend public funds on their own maintenance of power.


    24. 2007 - 2008: PREDICTING A BACKLASH AGAINST A DETERIORATING PUBLIC SERVICE AND THE ROLE OF ADVISERS


      The appearance on television by public servants, during the reign of the Howard government in 2007, is a clear breach of the Public Service Code of Conduct and evidence of the decline in values of the Australian Public Service.

      The head of the Public Service, Peter Shergold sees no problem with such appearances. He publicly argues there is no decline. This may be at odds with Kevin Rudd's thinking based on his experience in Queensland. Peter Shergold talks poppy cock. There is disregard, in the government and the public service, for the cost imposts on business dealing with the public service particularly in tendering, application of rules and policies, distribution of responsibility and the ever present attempts to pass extrordinary liabilities onto business. It quite simply costs a bomb to deal with all Australia's public services and more often than not effort is wasted in responding to tenders which are (a) already decided or (b) going nowhere due to policy or other decisions.

      This is not unique to the federal government (e.g the Access Card which is opposed by Labor) but is a malaise of all public services across the nation. They are pushing liability outwards under the guise of public private partnerships or some other mechanism. The probity rules are an costly impost and act against the public interest. What stupidity is it to state that a tenderer may not advise the Department of a benefit to the public if it was not in the original document. What stupidity to state that a tenderer cannot refer to a change in circumstance, technology or someother benefit during a presentation. The lawyers are making packets of money supervising probity. They are not living in the realm world of cooperative development and relationship building. They are dehumanising interaction with public servants and increasing risks and cost. They are all too often parasites on the public purse rather than valuable additions to the process.

      The political advisers, within Australia's governments, are uncontrolled and too often act unethically and perahps illegally and with malice, often against the public interest. Their participation in government and public service, has become of concern since they act in contravention of good governance and the separation of powers and responsibilities. They are taking roles as "fill in for the Minister". Will the real Minister please stand up. Public servants acquiesce to a bullying and spiteful minister, serving the government interest and not the public interest. The chickens are coming home to roost. Labor should not assume that it will be viewed with any higher regard should it assume office.

      Government ministries are shackled by a deteriorating public service corporate memory, skill, experience and ability, and decline in ethical standards at senior levels in the bureaucracy required to meet complex challenges. The gap however is closing in favour of Rudd and Labor. The statistics are against him at this time. The election will be decided by between 3,000 and 5,000 votes representing a few percent. The margins in seats will be miniscule. The election will turn on a pin.For the predictions on each electorate in the 2007 federal election,
      click here.


    25. July 2007, the resignation of Steve Bracks as Premier of Victoria draws near as the factions arrange a transfer to John Brumby. This would spell the end of the John Thwaites as Deputy. Lyne Kosky touted as Deputy does not have the numbers against Rob Hulls and Tim Pallas may hold more cards than John Lenders. Observers and industry leaders believe that there is a lack of depth in the Victorian labor state government.


    26. The federal election outcome for 2007 is hard to predict as the labor and liberal parties both are on the nose with voters. The creepy side of the Howard government performance will start to bite and the Work Choices legislation will be amended dramatically despite the resistance of the past. The labor party is very good at belittling those outside its closeted world but will be tested when some of their own are found to be less than pristine in their world of business. The trade unions are dominating the agenda on employment and Kevin Rudd will have to demonstrate that he is an independent soul. Very difficult. The unions add little value in the equation and some actually extort the situation.

      The Prime Minister will jettison some of his front bench Ministers between June and August 2007. They will move on to other pastures. Labor thinks that climate change is a vote winner as do the Greens. He, and they, are sadly mistaken. Other more pressing social issues arise and it is not so much about policy as about choice. If we believe that local candidates do not matter, and it is about Howard versus Rudd, then why is labor picking pick celebrity candidates? The hidden influences start to become apparent from June 2007. Behind the scenes what are the manipulators of public opnion doing and are they known to the media and the party strategists? They are moving policy and outcomes through the sheer force of their will, assets and stategies. Julia Gillard is a weak link in the frnt bench labor team. What will Kevin Rudd do?

      Mr Rudd's wife, Therese Rein, is selling her business in Australia. Why was this labor person in the game of the Job Network when the labor party atually opposed it? Job Network was portrayed by them as a nasty policy. The allure of the office of Prime Minister and the global network it brings along with future opportunities in the after political life is a powerful inducement for Ms Rein to get out of her contentious business activities in this country. The women who are publicly speaking out about putting the husband's interests first should consider this.


    27. Some time ago I wrote to the Prime Minister on the matter of aboriginal affairs asking why he did not step in in the NOrthern Territory with the army and band of competent administrators and professionals? He wrote back and I read between the lines. I wrote to the Chief Minister in the Northern Territory but never received a reply. I wrote my often worthless contributions to other politicians in many governments. They are ignored and the bureaucrats sit in their isolated world's oblivious to those influences beyond their horizon. In 2007 Australian democratic interaction has taken on new dimensions which some in the federal government Ministries, and offices, not many but some, have come to realise. Among them are Gary Nairn, Joe Hockey, Helen Coonan and Peter McGauran. External parties can now genuinely affect the craeers and actions of the public service, politicians and of Ministers. It is a pity that most executives have not yet learned this lesson.

      Federal Minister for Aboriginal Affairs, Mal Brough, has stirred a hornet's nest with his assertions of paedophilia in remote aboriginal communities. He has a swag of evidence and Clare Martin, Chief Minister of the Northern Territory has been sitting on a report for several weeks that will blow the top off her administration. She and her law enforcers have allowed the non - aboriginal itinerants (truckers, mining personnel and others) to carry booze, drugs and money to buy sex, regardless of the age and capacity of the aboriginal people preyed upon, in the communities. The mining companies have allowed their personell free reign to exploit the aboriginal people. The Commonwealth is moving to exercise constitutional power sidelining her incompetent executive, and bureaucracy annexing, it to the will of the federal government under Mal Brough. When will this happen? I predict that will occur in August 2007.


    28. Saturday 16 June 2007, Despite poll results at this time Kevin Rudd and the labor party would not win the 2007 federal election.


    29. Just as the Qantas bid for takeover by equity raiders will have failed by May 2007 so too will the move by Kohlberg, Kravis Roberts to take over Coles Myer through a managed auction. This will reflect badly on the Board and Senior Management capability athe big store. The small pool of name directors who migrate across the top Australian company boards, through some managed process which appears a bit clubby, are going to take a large hit on their credibility. Margaret Jackson will leave the Qantas Chair despite her claims that she intends to stay put. The world of Australian businessman, James Packer will also alter extensively.


    30. James Packer, the CEO and majority owner of Publishing and Broadcasting in Australia will move to sell the media assets that his father and grandfather worked so hard to build up. Channel Nine CEO Eddy Maguire will leave as CEO and then Packer will announce a sell down of the media assets to external equity partners. Packer will move more extensively into gaming and new media. The future is ricky as gaming will be found in 2008 - 2009 to be a minefiled with falling values due to over supply, anti gambling activism in countries and substantial down grading of asset values due to a major correction in world sharemarkets particularly driven out of the USA and Asia. Wall Street will view the investment world of gambling quite negaitively and short sellers will move in punting.


    31. (March 2007) The current Minister for Aging, the Honourable Senator Santo Santoro has been found to have been derelict in completing his required parliamentary duties in relation to declaration of interest. He claims an oversight and has stronly suggested that he is a person of integrity in public office. The Prime Minister has supported him in this regard. The manner of the Senator's demeanour and response leads me to question is there something he is not telling the Prime Minister and the nation? He protests too loudly and vainly to my mind. The ethical stature of the Senator may become the issue of focus. I expect that the Senator will not be sitting on the front bench beyond the end of March 2007. Ethics is a not a playground in which politicians should participate. Neither labor nor liberal can claim the high ground. We have seen day after day that the Australian labor party is riddled with unethical and corrupt practices and individuals. Senator Santoro's behaviour in not declaring his share interests on the parliamentary register may well open the door to door to questions about to the liberal party's constituency.

    32. I predict the privatisation of Qantas (2006 - 2007) will not go through because the shareholders will not sell the require number of shares. I question the Macquarie Bank and of Mr. Mansfield. What public interest is served by an exercise, the single aim of which is to make money with little comprehension of the "spirit of the Flying Kangaroo" in our hearts and minds?


    33. On November 25, 2006, the voters of the state of Victoria will elect a new government. The general concensus is that the incumbent labor government lead by Steve Bracks, will win another term. He will however not serve out 2007 resigning mid year. John Brumby will take over under a factional transfer agreement with Hulls as Deputy replacing the non aligned John THwaites. The relection of the Bracks' government will occur despite clear evidence that the labor party in Victoria and the members of the parliamentary party under Steve Bracks are corrupting the democratic processes through manipulation and misrepresentation, consistent with the other jurisdictions where the labor party is in government.

      The Premier seems to lack a moral cpmpass since he will become aware of extensive corruption and possibble criinal activity by members of his parliamentary team. The media will begin publishing these cases in 2007. Despite this Bracks will promote the named people and some will be working closely with him. Public policy in Victoria is on paper with a seeming tenuous link to performance.

      Steve Bracks win the election but will be limited to the lower house of parliament. The upper house voting processes have been changed which will allow minority parties a greater opportunity to win seats. In 2007 there will be exposesz of Victorian members' of the party association or inadvertent interaction with criminals.

      The restructuring of the voting processes for the Upper House is a commendable action of the Bracks' government on the face of it. That is if we are to believe in altruism. The motivations are not clear since the Victorian government on too many occasions appears
      devious and secreteive and some believe that the members of the Victorian government may lie, or distort the truth, quite often. It is predicted by watchers that the greens party may have the final say, on a vote, if labor and liberal upper house members cannot agree on legislation. Bracks' star recruit, Evan Thornley, will struggle to win votes because he is trying for an upper house seat rather than a safe lower house labor seat. He will make it but by the barest of paper thin outcomes.

      The owner of this web site, Kevin R Beck, believes that Bracks' may not have a land slide victory in the lower house in the sense that he controls the politics. Behind the scenes is a movement to hamper the government's domination and manipulation of policy and outcome. They are oblivious to the existence of such influences. The networks of interaction and inteferference with political interest objectives are growing daily.

      The liberal party under Ted Baillieu is not stellar but it will make significant gains. Ted Baillieu has a solid record of commercial skill, something which the Bracks' government severely lacks. However this liberal performance will not be as you might expect. It will not be a vote for the liberals that eeventuates. The actual liberal vote may well decline. There will be an increase in the conservative vote, for the National Party, as was the case in the federal election. This increase in state vote grows around the federal electorate of Peter McGauaran. Political commentators, and media, academics and pundits, keep predicting the demise of the National Party. They are reading the political landscape poorly.

      If the National Party embraces the climate and environmental issues debate demonstrating leadership, it can steal the ground under the Greens. There is a sense that the Greens can take seats from Labor in Melbourne. This is a ratty party that is unable to synethise complex issues. The electors flirt with the fringe dwellers. They are more an academic party than a hard headed rational political party. Further to my predictions regrading labor's outcomes. I predict a change of voting behaviour in the Latrobe Valley. Within this web site you will find material on the performance of former labor party (federal) member Christian Zahra. He failed to respond to correspondence and issues he saw as irrelevant that I continually raised across federal and state parliaments. He lost his seat. The incumbents of the seat of Morwell and Narracan have developed an underlying ownership demeanour. For the past three decades the politics of local government and state representations have been stage managed by family interests. A small group of actual relatives and friends who were treated as family. This was a strong control when the Valley was dominated by the State Electricity Commission and the unions in a cosy management relationship. Life was good for those who were employed in the Commission and for those who served them in the community. There was an under current of the haves and the have nots. They were largely ignored. The Valley was always middle class with a mix of professionals and trades. The professionals dominated. When the electricity industry was privatised the seeds of destruction of the dynasty were sown. Trades would eventually become the aspirants and rise above the professionals. The unions dominated whilst ever the blue collar worker was "managed" by the professional. With aspiration comes freedom from the yoke and perhaps a more discerning examination of who is doing what and for what reason. The political family of the Latrobe Valley were always focused on their own self interest. The electorate was taken for granted.

      It has taken a decade but finally the control will be broken. I have spent a significant amount of time communicating under the radar with people across the expanse of Gippsland. Ignored by the incumbent labor party state members I have worked assiduously to garner feedback and an exchange of ideas. At the last federal election I conveyed to the sitting federal Member, and Minister, Peter McGauran, that his vote would actually increase and that labor would lose the seat of McMillan, held by Chrsitian Zahra. Now I go further in that advice to the Minister. The landscape from East Gippsland, through to Pakenham, at federal and state levels will turn conservative.

      There is little depth in the front benches of the labour and liberal parties, presenting voters with yet another dilemma. Who will win? I cannot take a punt.


    34. The leader of the Australian Labor party in the federal parliament is Kim Beazley. He seems to be oblivious to the proposition that he has a lame duck front bench, since two of his shadow ministerial members have lost labor pre-selection for the 2007 federal election. Since the party members do not think they are worth their salt why does he think that the people of the nation should have to put up with lower standards and competencies? Kim Beazley cannot, under even the best conditions, deliver a labor win against John Howard except by the liberals making a massive number of blunders. It is indeed a disgrace that Beazley might assume that voters are ignorant and he may assume the office of Prime Minister, based, not on his ability and that of his colleagues, but on the failure of the incumbent government.

      Bye bye Kim Beazley

      Kim Beazley's policies (note: not the labor party's) are not that flash that they can attract huge voter upport. We can see the arrogance of the manner of Australia's politics by looking at labor's web site. There they call the policies - "Kim Beazley's policies". Soon they will be called Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard's politices. Why have the other members if they cannot think up some to add? The Beazley approach to government, in the "Caesar" mould, is an insult to democracy and representation. This truth will hit Mr. Beazley in 2006 and it will hit the party. The days of Beazley's leadership are so short that his Christmas will be memorable for him.

      The dilemma for the labor party is that many parliamentary members, and party officials, want him removed as leader but they do not seem to see their options clearly. The party will do much better when they elect Julia Gillard as the first female leader of the opposition. The controllers move now to retire Kim Beazley from federal politics along with a large number of current labor parliamentary members. Unfortunately the maturity of Australia's politicians and the cerebral capacities of the nation are not yet developed to the point where they will appoint a female to the leadership let alone to the office of Prime Minister.

      Mr. Beazley's interests, and those of his supporters, should not be placed above the public interest as they have been. Their political career interests are not synonymous with the public interest as sThe Australian labor partyu, across the board, at state, federal and territory level are a bland lot lacking innovation and ideas. There are a number of front bench members whose contribution are not of a standard to support their candidacy for Ministers. namely Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith and Stephen Conroy. The labor party factions are the bane of the party. One might well argue that the conservatives are no better in this regard and a far more corrosive to the nation's well being and governance.


    35. The Australian government is selling off another chunk of Telstra, (November 2006), Australia's largest telecommunications utility. The share offer is laced with tantalising incentives and sweeteners. An annual dividend is promised to continue Telstra's record of poor governance. The shares and capital base (reduced by billions) does not warrant a 14% dividend which translates to 20% when combined with taxation policy. Hey, who cares if the dividend is rigged? Make hay while the government has the say. Lose your money on another day ... down the track. The investors have lost over 50% of their capital from the last share sell off. The government is aware of the political calamity that will result if it is another failure. Telstra is grossly over valued at $AUD4.00 and marginally over valued at $A3.50. The company is placing all of its future in a new 3G network. Telstra assumes that Sensis will be a cash cow, on line directories, classifieds and services. Telstra owns a slice of pay television. The content of the current offering of pay channels hardly inspires a national take up. Consumers have no idea what the costs of 3G are in the future. Telstra's American experienced management are translating that countries love affair with technology into the Australian landscape as if they are synonymous. They are not. There are doubts that take up will be sufficient to sustain Telsta's dividend and value levels and operational plans. In 2007 - 2008 I expect that Telstra's share price may well topple below $AU3.00. Technology in mobile phones may be hardly more than a fickle fad for feckless users with little imagination, shallow needs and minute attention spans. Put simply, more money (or credit cards) than sense. There are far better, and less risky, investments than Telstra.


    36. The head count in the state parliament of Victoria, after November 2006, will be substantially different to what it is now for each party and the number of minority and independent members. The media is interpreting Mr. Baillieu's impact and public support incorrectly. They are judging labor Premier Steve Bracks more harshly than is perceived. Similarly so in Queensland, where Peter Beattie has a significant problem with water. The child care scandal, deaths in hospitals and lack of things like electricity did not galvanise them, but water is. In South East Queensland he will take a political hammering yet he will return to government as if nothing has happened. This is sad indictment of the reality of the Australia political duopoly. Choices and talented representation and government/public sector skills are severely limited.


    37. Peter Costello, Australia's federal Treasurer, has long been touted as the natural successor to the Prime Minister, John Howard. I do not believe this. The Prime Minister has exhibited a willingness to allow lies to permeate his government, wether it be the invasion of Iraq, the Children Overboard episode, the stupidity of the statement that the liberals can have an extensive control over interest rates and many other instances of poor ethical and moral example. Thus it is unlikely that John Howard would honour any back room agreements with Peter Costello. They come from different political realms. background and ideals. Peter Costello I believe cannot rely upon John Howard or the greater number of the party membership.

      He may have two political faces. I think he is a centre, rather than a far right liberal, with leanings towards social justice. He presents a different face in his role as Treasurer in the John Howard led federal government of Australia. In July 2006 he took the unusual step of challenging the integrity of the Prime Minister. He effectively did what many voters have been doing for years. He questioned very bluntly the truthfulness of Mr. Howard. Peter Costello is not liked by a lot of people including liberal voters. Research conducted by the Mosaic Portal owner, Kevin R Beck, indicates that the majority with a dislike are females. It is incomprehensible to me that so many people can find the Prime Minister to have enough virtue to be the leader of Australia, yet they do. They are entitled to their opinion. Even people who are unenlightened, those who are not well read and educated, who do not analyse and question their governments, and political representatives, are entitled to opinions, as are bigots, racists and xenophobics. All such people, and a bunch of others who are quite the opposite, seem to laud John Howard. The fraudulently claimed ability to manage the "economy" seems to engender faith, coupled, blindness and myopia. Peter Costello was never destined to be Prime Minister under John Howard. To an external observer I felt that Mr. Howard was being duplicitious when he implied that he supported Mr. Costello as the next Prime Minister. He does not. Peter Costello may have come to the same opinion. The interesting question is, how many other members of the federal government are aware of this truth?


    38. June 2006, Kerry Packer's empire has passed to his son James. The interesting thing about dynasties, and the corporate world in Australia, is the nature of its closed participation. In a small nation of 20,000,000 it seems that we can only find a few hundred people to populate our large corporations. Many of these people occupy a number of board roles. Some are very competent and then there are the charlatans. Those who hide behind a veil of secrecy, public relations spin and out right lies. Woolworths has risen to become the market darling under Roger Corbett. In the back room illegal activity feeds its burgeoning income streams. Fed by the callous greed and the commercial blood of small retailers. They are being held to ransom by illegal deeds, maniupulating the market and reducing competition. Praise be to the reign of Roger Corbett and his senior executives, who will never pay the price for what they have done to small independent liquor retailers who dared to try and create a small business.

      Meanwhile back at Publishing and Broadcasting, the newly acquired kingdom of James Packer, corporate thugs hide in the back rooms. They have appointed charismatic Eddie McGuire, television star and football team President to be Chief Executive of broadcaster Channel Nine. The theory is that the qualities that make a start and thus someone eligible to be in the club translate to being able to be the CEO of a major enterprise. They do not in this particular case. A television station is a place of ego and under current. There are many stars here and Eddy McGuire is a "Johnny come lately" by comparison. The real quality that is needed is people skills as well as strong financial and an economic sense. The standard tools will be rolled out, mass sackings. Meanwhile the excesses of the owners and executives will be on display. It is an arrogance born of being looked after and never having to explain or be accountable. Mr. McGuire will crash and burn and he will, in the end, be sacrificed to protect James Packer and the other senior executives of the company known as PBL. The trashing of Kerry Packer's carefully built empire is underway. The sharks smell blood and circle waiting to devour the company. James Packer will degrade and lose the empire, albeit over some time. He will however remain a member of the club and go on to some other endeavour.




    39. The media and privacy interests reporting and arguing the case on the Australian government's proposal to implement a smart access card are misinterpreting what
      the card is and what is happening in Australian society and economy. It is not an identity issue and not about another card we have to carry. It is about fraud reduction and elimination and about convergence, and integration, of existing services. It is about what, and who, is behind the scenes which is of far greater import than what the Australian government contemplates.

      A new technology centre will be developed, most probably in Queensland. It will focus on the technology of cards. Credit cards, debit cards, smart cards and chip science, materials, manufacturing and the methods of production of all types of personalised cards. It will focus on software systems and data, how records are stored and where, on research and education. It will herald an expansion of Australia's participation in the Asia Pacific economy and in export and import of intellectual property and high technology skills. The initiative in creating this centre will provide jobs and new opportunities.

      In 2007 the four major banks will unveil their plans for a new authenticated identification system for banking and financial transactions. The major banks will move to progressively replace all Australian credit and debit cards along with ATM and EFTPOS readers. These new cards and readers will utilise dual authenticated and smart card chip technology. All smaller institutions will be forced to follow suit. The liability will shift from its current modus operandi where the credit card companies, such as Visa and Mastercard, wear any losses resulting from fraudulent transactions to the providers (banks, retail stores and others) and thus to the customer. It will be more expensive to operate a bank account and to own, and use, a credit and debit card.

      This will coincide with the implementation of the Australian government's Access Card. All state and territory governments will have to address security in their own transactions and in their physical (infrastructure building access) and logical (computer) access. The states and territories will have to develop new driver's licences that conform to much stricter identity and security formats and design. Employment agencies will have to provide their employees, who work as temporary staff and contractors, in government and sensitive enterprises, with authenticated identification. New security measures across the nation, at every level, will increase costs. These measures are being driven by a myriad of interests, some apparent such as governments and bank, and
      others not so apparent. New business interests will enter the market bringing substantial competition into this technological arena.


    40. I write to federal labor member, Stephen Smith, quite often on issues particularly to do with his portfolio as spokesperson on industrial relations and he also has infrastructure and industry. This is a big brief beyond his capacity to grasp and articulate. He never responds because to do so would require effort and knowledge. His office never responds. They are as ignorant as he is. He is a blank sheet on policy arguments. He is supposed to be arguing the case for labor's dislike of the federal government's Work Choices legislation. It is an easy argument to run since the federal Minister Kevin Andrews misrepresents the situation on so many occasions. This is either deliberate or he is not competent in the portfolio. The legislation is a piece of convoluted ideology (largely based on thuggish sanctions and crude concepts) with deliberate intent to damage others such as unions, business and people who do not obey the fascist commands documented there in. Stephen Smith is not a failure in the role. To fail would imply that he tried to do something. He will lose the delegation in 2006. Hopefully he will not be given another. Such a hope is forlorn because the leader of the party, Kim Beazley and a number of senior labor figures, are as inept as Stephen Smith. They are warming their seats to collect their pensions.


    41. The Australian government, and many leading lawyers, believe that the Commonwealth Work Choices legislation governing employment will withstand the High Court challenge being mounted by the states starting Thursday 3rd May, 2006. I think that the Work Choices legislation will not pass the constitutional test. I predict core elements of the act will be struck down by the court. The Australian Constitution specifies the Commonwealth government's powers with regard to corporations. One may well read the document as referring more to the regulatory regime of how corporations might behave and what "commercial" and "criminal" laws might be applicable rather than how they should employ people? The section is not clear and is more on the nebulous side. The court may take a literal wording but this is difficult govern the paucity of words. The Constitution also sets a limitation in industrial relations powers to conciliation and arbitration. The High Court has become the primary defender the citizenry in the absence of a bill of rights. The parliaments of Australia, and the legislators, have failed to represent, and protect citizens, preferring party self interest to public integrity. Without the High Court there is effectively no body to protect against the excesses of the executive of Australia's governments, particularly the federal government.


    42. (April - July 2006) The government will be asking the Board of Telstra some questions about governance and practice. Chief Executive, Sol Trujillo must be called before the Senate to explain the tendering and senior management appointment practices currently in vogue in Telstra. Call them all. If they decline to appear then jail them for contempt. However the Australian Senate is a weak kneed body in that regard. A person an show contempt for the peoples' parliament and they just bluster and make noises for show. Why should anyone respect the Senate when it does not respect itself and demand respect?

      April 2006: What a waste of public money (that is since the public is the largest shareholder) the Telstra Human Resources Management are. They cost millions. What is the salary of the Executive head of Human Resources in Telstra? What value is there? Well the shareholders cannot tell because the Australian government does not enquire and the Board does not offer the information. This is Australia's largest company and it is 50.1% publicly owned but if you write to one of the well paid executives in Telstra, and enquire about anything you are likely to get short shift. Look at the upcoming scrutiny of executive appointments and tendering processes. Telstra management will alternate between lies, obsfucation and fear of retribution from the newly imported US executives, all whom have former associations with the Chief Executive. The US phone company from which they all came must be a bottler of a performer to warrant all of them being transported to Australia. Alcatel must be a tremendously superior company to be treated differently to others as must be Latin America company, Brightstar. It seems that both these companies have had a long and salubrious relationship with the Chief Executive, in a past life.

      Senior management of Telstra seem to have the Board captive to a new style of expedited decision making, investment and management processes. They also seem to have delegated some of their corporate governance oversight to the Telstra management. I asked for a meeting and did not get a reply. You snigger! Why would a million dollar executive give me, a pleb, the time of day, you ask? Because I asked politely, I am a shareholder and a user of Telstra's services and it is 51% owned by the Australian government and thus the people of Australia. Also because I am a student and admirer of new management trends such as limited tendering, mates rates and clubs and decisions that could be labelled by critics as corrupt.

      I want the head of human resources in the organisation to tell the owners, the Australian public what is planned for the employees. If she will not tell then I will ask the Minister, Senator Helen Coonan, to find out and tell us. It is probably a
      typical lack of regard for Australia's talent. If Australia has a shortage skill why is it never in the big corporations?

      The performance of Telsta is like the administration in particular Australian government departments, and Ministries, mediocre, inept, secret and often arrogant. Prior to Mr. Trujillo telling the market a different story, senior managers in Telstra, managed to devalue Telstra's asset base and shares to what it is today. When it comes to privatise the balance of Telstra, the Howard government probably has little interest in how the company runs its human resources and what happens there, but that will be a battleground for some who do care. Privatisation will be a long running issue ramped up by those with the time and will to persist.

      Human resource issues will be a lingering "pain in the arse" to the government, and to those who chance their arm and money by purchasing the company. In 2000 I wrote to governments and politicians around Australia challenging the then management's public statements on the health of Telstra. I did this again in 2001 through to 2005. I said Telstra was worth about $28 billion, not $33 billion as Treasurer Costello had in the books. So what will the number be when the government comes to sell? It depends upon how much regulation is foisted on the Australian telecommunications industry. The Chief Executive of Telstra, Mr. Sol Trujillo supported by the Board, has waged a war of words, and attrition against government regulation. This is consistent with Mr. Trujillo's former stance in the USA. Minister for Telecommunications, Senator Helen Coonan seems publicly unimpressed but this might be window dressing.

      Telstra wants to build a 3G network purportedly for $A3 billion ( bit light on the budget) but claims fears that the government will mandate access for its struggling competitors. Optus Australia (Singtel) wants to join with Telstra in the network and the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission will have to be careful in allowing such a move. Why have a costly competing separate network in a nation where the population base cannot sustain such things? Telstra's strategy seeks to strand its small competitors who are all buying services within Telstra's current old generation exchanges. If the government mandates access, and Telstra makes loud noises, the price may drop dramatically to $2.80 a share. Internet, and broadband, take up is not going a swimmingly as the experts claimed it would, anywhere in the world, since it took off in the late nineties. What happens to the Telstra system, when and if, the telepower network falls over in a number of places? Has it already begun to do so and has Telstra kept a miscalculation of the risk factor, very quiet? At $3.90, considering earning ratios and future revenues, Telstra is very much over priced.
    43. (April 2006) One method of hiding inefficient management within a corporation is to go on an expansion spree. Continual acquisitions, and take overs, keeps the board, the auditors and the shareholders busy. It is impressive to the media and to the markets. Toll Holdings in Australia in Australia likes to go on take over sprees. They have just acquired Patrick, the Australian stevedoring company. Toll is reportedly a conglomerate of $10,000,000,000 Australian dollars. What happens now? Does Toll acquire more or does Mr. Little actually demonstrate that he, and the Board and management, know how to run a large conglomerate? If there is nothing left to buy what will he, and they do? I would not want to own Toll shares once the acquisition is complete. Why? I think that they may have masked the fact that they might not be able to manage their new commercial empire and I think it will probably will fall over in 2007 - 2008. I would personally buy KS Corp shares, based in South Australia, because Lindsay Fox's family trucking company might just amalgamate with them.


    44. Off and Running. The former CEO of the National Australia Bank (NAB), Frank Cicutto, has gone off to work elsewhere in a property company. Will the property company expand like the NAB Bank did and then run off the rails too? I think so. I find it extraordinary that people who leave an organisation under a cloud, with a particular history of performance, very public to boot, can be picked up by others, as if nothing happened. They may be eager to replicate history. Perhaps it is about looking after club members?


    45. Is it not time the leader of the Victorian Opposition Party, Robert Doyle, chucked in the towel? Does he want to put his party and the people who vote liberal through more misery? What a disappointment Ted Bailleu is. He will not have a go and challenge Robbie. The theatrics is not boring, it cost the public money but little do they care. This is pure torture. Old farts, and their crony colleagues, living on the public purse, in the parliament of Victoria Australia, as if it were their personal sand box. Get a move on, or preferably piss off, for you lot in the Victorian conservative parties are truly a waste of money.


    46. Anthony Albanese is a federal labor politician. He opposes a change to the Australian labor party's policy on the number of uranium mines in Australia. He, together with like minded colleagues in the labor party, the Greens and the Australian Conservation Foundation, will be marginalised and they will be outmanoeuvered. Anthony Albanese's contribution in the labor party, will by his own hand, be sidelined and ultimately he will be consigned to irrelevancy. He will resign from the party, and perhaps the Australian parliament, in 2007 in protest. The state government of West Australia will abandon its opposition to uranium mining on state and national interest arguments reversing their policy platform. Queensland labor party will follow suit. KEVINRBECK's prediction for uranium set out below and described in detail in the Mosaic uranium debate site, as distributed to Australia's parliaments and media, over one year ago in January 2005, will have come to fruition.


    47. On March 18, 2006, Tasmanians will go to the polls to vote for their state government. The Premier, Paul Lennon, took over when Jim Bacon died in 2005. Unfortunately for labor, and the citizens of Tasmania, Lennon lacks the panache, good sense and charisma of his predecessor and friend. Therefore one can expect for labor to do rather poorly in this election with a significant decline in Mr. Lennon's vote in his seat if ethics was the barometer. It is not. Voters are not likely to hold labor generally across the state accountable for its ethical proclivities. The quality of candidates is limited by the small population base of this island state. The liberal party will be the first to break labor's hold on state governments in Australia. Rene Hidding is the leader of the liberal party and he has a superior sense of the actual role of a premier not possessed by Mr. Lennon. The Greens party expects to poll well. It will not. This is despite the party's inability to frame its policies for a mainstream audience and a modern, energy hungry self indulgent majority of Australians. Socially they are advanced, economically they appear to be pixies preferring to gamble on technology not yet invented or incapable of delivering the outputs of fossil fuels at competitive sustainable prices. Tasmania will shortly go on line with its Basslink connection to the mainland. Whatever government is in power after that occurs will find themselves in a well of pain economically as the reality of the situation comes home. The politicians (most particularly labor) have told the community that Basslink will make Tasmania a lot of money. They have told the community that mainland electricity distributors will want the "green power of the hydro". They have told the community that they will be able to sell electricity at the high peaking price. They have told the community that natural gas will make industry flock to the island. They have implied there will be lower gas and electricity prices. None of this is quite true and Tasmania will be held ransom to a market they do not comprehend.


    48. In March 2006 a number of sitting members of labor's governments in Victoria and federally are finding themselves under attack from candidates within their own parties. Of particular interest to the media, and political players and watchers is Simon Crean. Mr. Crean holds the federal seat of Hotham in Victoria. He is being challenged by (no surprise) a trade union official Martin Pakula. He is thirty seven years of age. Simon is somewhat older.

      Simon now is feeling a little like the older unemployed person who comes to an interview for a job. All too often the interviewee is in their twenties or thirties, short on experience, knowledge and "street smarts". They can be described as "wet behind the ears". The unemployed person must hold their counsel and not appear to hold disdain. Simon Crean will win the ballot. There are a number of reasons. The first is that the seat of Hotham has a high percentage of Asian voters, who have come from totalitarian regimes. They have been shaped in their experience and thinking, by party officials. They have come to Australia and find themselves able to vote and influence. Neither Simon or Mr. Pakula speak their language. Thus they are accompanied by translators. Mr. Pakula has no public profile to speak of. Simon, on the other hand, has been in their electorate for sixteen years? They have seen Simon's picture and have met the man many times, including at their temple. They know this party official and they trust him even though he does not speak their language.

      Martin Pakula is like the "wet behind the ears" corporate guru who espouses change and new generations. He says that he "gets a sense that there is a great appetite for change and there's enormous frustration from some very working class communities with labor's lack of success", (Michael Gordon, the Age, March, 4, 2006). The inference here is that Mr. Pakula thinks that he can do better than Simon and if he and the "new generation" are in, there will be victory. There may be some merit in putting Bill Shorten and Mark Dreyfus in, given their broad links to business and community. How broad is Mr. Pakula's experience and talent, by comparison? I have not met Mr. Pakula but I have met the other two and I have met with Simon on a number of occasions. I have dealt with Simon when he was a Minister under labor Prime Minister Paul Keating. He was particularly keen to assist the long term unemployed, and accepted an innovative labor market programme proposal put to him. Bill and Simon actively seek out the people who might influence, behind the scenes or who have the resources to enter the
      Game and it appears that Martin Pakula might have little idea who these hidden influences in the world of politics might be, if he realizes they exist at all? The words of the US Secretary of Defence, Mr. Rumsfeld, come to mind. There are things that we know, things that we do not know and things that we do not know we know, or something to that effect. Mr. Pakula to my knowledge has not sought to learn the things that he does no know that he does not know. Perhaps he thinks he has only to meet, greet and influence a the pre-selection voters in the electorate and within the central administration of the state labor party? Thus I have news for him, that will not deliver him Hotham for he has to get at least 75% of the vote of the members because that is what Simon Crean holds.

      One wonders who these un-named working class types, to which Mr. Pakula refers, are? The ex-patriots from Cambodia, and other citizens, of the electorate who are articulate about their existing representative, or him, and hungering for a labor victory? The last reason why Simon will win is that Mr. Pakula and others are saying they are keen to reverse labor's fortunes and win government. How will they do this? By choosing to stand for safe labor seats eschewing the harder, and more risky, task of trying to win marginal coalition (liberal and national) seats. It takes talent and spine to sit in Australia's federal parliament, in a seat that has been hard won. Mr. Pakula only has to ask Kim Beazley, the leader of the Australian Labor Party. Kim fought to win his seat in Western Australia time and time again, until given a safer option. Mr. Pakula does not seem to have the juice to take the risk. Some see this as a weakness. I see it as "wet behind the ears, self indulgent egotism". Mr. Pakula, from my perspective, offers little value to those he would purport to represent in the house of the people. Surely Mr. Beazley and others in the party can see this obvious deficiency?


    49. John Howard will find two significant episodes in his political career will damage him irreparably. These will surface in 2006 and spiral progressively out of control. Such that in 2007 he will be unable to run for office and will decide to retire. He will abandon the hapless, and sinking coalition, to Peter Costello. These events are:

      the Australian Wheat Board


      the Workplace Relations Act
      and disregard for the value of Australia's human capital


    50. The merger talks between Qantas and Singapore Airlines will cease


    51. Singapore Airlines will not be granted access to the Sydney - Los Angeles route


    52. The University of New South Wales will not establish an education enterprise in Singapore, not due to ethical, and moral, concerns. They simply haven't recognised them yet. It will be a business catastrophe. If they do establish the school it will be economically unviable.


    53. Singaporean military will be withdrawn from Australia ostensibly by the Singaporean government


    54. Optus (owned by Singtel) will progressively lose telephone accounts, and business, not as a result of the execution of an Australian citizen. They will lose business because Singtel is a dead hand on the Australian operation, starving it of funds. Singapore management live within their closeted narrow culture of single minded business pursuit and self indulgence. Australian consumers do not trust Optus, or for that matter any other telephone company. They have convoluted contracts and confused offerings. They rarely of ever respond to correspondence. If you ask an Optus call centre not to call you, they simply disregard this. They pester and their opening statement is always, because you are a loyal and valued customer. They will lose business because Singaporean owners do not allow Optus to spend the necessary capital. They will lose because Singaporean business operates in a subisdised, and government controlled, environment. I have an Optus telephone and I feel that there is something not quite right in the advertisements for capped agreements. They use intrusive, telemarketing. Telstra will leverage its advantage against its competitors and spread its wings into Singtel territory. In my experience Optus never responds to correspondence. It is unlikely that other businesses, such as Singapore power, will be affected by the execution. interests in Victoria and South Australia


    Will the coalition in Iraq be surprised particularly the Australian government when the government of Iraq falls under the influence of Iran or when Hamas wins a majority of seats in the 2006 Palestinian elections? The US concept of democracy is not the same as an Arabic concept. However the yanks, and some of its supporters, perhaps Australia, don't yet grasp this.

  • Robert Doyle, leader of the state liberal party in Victoria will lose the leadership. By mid 2006 Ted Baillieu will be installed eventually though his reticence is irksome. One minute he is going to challenge, then he is not. This does not put him in a god light to be Premier, one day, if he becomes known as a "procrastinator".


  • Telstra boss, Sol Trujillo will outwit the Australian government, ACCC and competitors, and tactically isolate Telstra's networks
    and technology from its competitors.


    1. Kim Beazley will lose prestige as a result of his propensity for dithering. Factional preselection wars will break out across federal seats whilst Beazley is leader. He will muff significant opportunities presented by scandals. He has missed the "consumer cost" blow out of Peter McGauran's Australian food labelling proposals (2006). These are being pushed through the Australian parliament, and outward, to the states and territories. The Minister's advisers could be described as "myopic". They will unleash a Pandora's box of consumer issues. They have a limited perspective of the Australian political landscape and are oblivious to any influences, that are not patently obvious, anywhere outside of their central labor party world. Strategists, I the corporate world, sit beyond their horizon and beyond their imagination.

      Watch Mr. Stanhope, the Chief Minister, in Canberra, because he is going places politically. In the next federal election he will run for a federal seat.

      Some federal labor members, and branches, are looking to recruit ACT Chief Minister, Jon Stanhope, to the federal arena, as a leadership prospect to replace Kim Beazley, the current federal labor leader. Some large donors to the party cannot see that there talent in the existing federal labor party parliamentary membership to assume the leadership. They are turning their eyes to Mr. Stanhope who not only distinguishes himself from the liberal and national parties but also from the mediocrity of the labor party generally. They think that he may have a better grasp of social policy and is not afraid to debate citizens, policy and decisions, openly. They also think that he can express himself and relate to ordinary people better than the front bench members and the leader of the Opposition, Mr. Kim Beazley. Mr. Stanhope seems not so inclined to the same self delusion, and denial, that emanates from Kim Beazley every few days as he struggles to demonstrate what it is he precisely might be in terms of a conviction politician with the required ability of simple and direct communication. The Labor party of 2005 is lead by people of the past who are bred on waiting their turn and opportunity. Kim Beazley cannot win an election on his current form. He is also up against a broader church of talent in the liberal and national. The pre-selection processes of the liberal, and national parties are more diverse and open, than the labor party, which is captive to unions and factional machine men. It is a withering entity strangling itself on hubris and aged theories of management and control. The federal labor machine is about to learn that maybe not all decision making, as to who gets the top spots, rests in their hands. They may find that external forces gather to take control out of the hands of the current regime. They now have a task. Decide who will give up their federal labor seat to enable Jon Stanhope to enter federal parliament in a by election and to decide if Bill Shorten shall have Maribynong in Melbourne.


    2. Australian media is reporting that the leader of the Australian National Party, and Deputy Prime Minister, Mark Vaile, overseas for trade talks (October 11, 2005) will upon his return castigate the good Senator, Barnaby Joyce, for crossing the floor and voting against the Howard government's proposed amendment to the Trade Practices Act. The Senator feels that easing the rules on mergers will help the giant corporations who wield market power. This prediction by the media is rubbish. One only has to look at the current efforts of the Agriculture Minister, Peter McGauran, on behalf of farmers against similar market power to realise that Senator Barnaby is being consistent with the National party strategy to place itself at the forefront of electorate representation. If Mark Vaile is not cognisant of this unique window of opportunity, in this term of parliament, before the next election, then he should not be leader. In 2006 Vaile will face a crisis as Peter McGauran's brother, Julian considers his political future and allegiances. Julian's position on the National Party Victorian Senate ticket has long been protected by Peter's efforts. The Victorian State National Party want Julian out and Julian is rattled by Barnaby's antics. If Julian gets antsy in his National whip role in the Senate then cracks will appear. Barnaby is showing up Julian's proclivities for unflattering responses.

      There may be a public display of slapping Barnaby Joyce's hand to placate the challenged members of the liberal party, and perhaps some unthinking national party members who might believe that the parliament is their playground, and their personal fiefdom. However if Vaile comes down hard on Barnaby he will pay an electoral price. The
      Cole Enquiry is a critical issue for Mark Vaile. Documents, and testimony, are emerging that Vaile knew of the AWB and BHP strategies in Iraq and was present at meetings. Vaile denies this and so does the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. All are saying that they, and their Ministers, knew nothing. On balance effective managers of the public interest, particular a government granting a company a monopoly would know. It would suit the goals of the liberal party, on top of Julian McGauran's efforts, to have Vaile go down, effectively dealing a blow to the coalition partner. Internal enemies within the liberal party would happily lose Downer too. It is my expectation that Vaile will be sacrificed.

      Liberal strategists, and control freaks in the office of Prime Minister and Cabinet, want a solid, do as you are told, coalition rank without baggage and surprises. In modern day managerial politics, independent thinkers are not all that popular and they are not really supported. They are managed. Barnaby Joyce is resisting being managed. Mark Vaile is the manager, of the Nationals, on behalf of the liberal machine. He is a surrogate leader for John Howard .

      As Senator Joyce says, if one is going to be told how to vote then they may as well put in a proxy. Why bother to come at all? The second question is why belong to the National Party if it is considered by lesser lights and arrogant liberals to be a branch of the Liberal Party? This is a question that a good many members of Australia's parliaments (state, federal and territory) may well ask themselves. Why not merge? Federal labor spokesperson, Joel Fitzgibbon, whose contribution over his time in parliament is at best lame. He called Senator Joyce "turn around Barnaby". At least Senator Joyce can think for himself and is articulate to boot. One may question labor leader Kim Beazley's judgement as to why Fitzgibbon is in such a role? The Labor party tots out tired policies and responses on vocational education and industrial relations, on health and economy and just about every other portfolio issue. Beazley and his team may well have years of experience and heaps of commitment but they seem to be listening to some pretty poor advice from people who are not the best to assist them.


    3. Market watchers and those who think they know who calls the tune might well do more research and look beyond the horizon. Here's an example. In 2000 a small Australian company, with interests in international R&D, took on the light metals policy platform of the Australian government, the business model of Australian Magnesium Corporation, CSIRO and the power collective generally. They proposed that a world class light metals R&D facility be established at the University of New South Wales in Sydney in conjunction with Australian and international, commercial and scientific interests. They were rebuffed by governments and ridiculed by those who knew better and who had better connections to government and the world of big business. They did not consider the tenacious attitude of this smaller company and the ability of its consultants to enter this world of politics and big business on an international scale.

      Over a period of four years consultants, to the small company, continually warned the Australian and State governments, particularly Queensland, Australia's premier research entity CSIRO, other larger and well connected magnesium proponents, the Australian government R&D advisers, the media, and members of Australia's parliaments, that the government supported magnesium project valued at $1.4 billion, with a significant public investment, would fail. They travelled the world meeting with investors, bankers, corporate executives, manufacturers, scientists and government agencies discussing the strategies of these powerful Australian interests in magnesium technology and R&D and distributed analytical papers comparing technologies and investment proposals. The Australian and New South Wales governments declined to support the establishment of the research laboratory at the university in Australia. The NSW government also refused to acknowledge that the small company has a technology that destroys asbestos and which could rehabilitate an environmental hazard in northern NSW whilst extracting quality magnesium. The proposed project, offered by the small company, was lost to international interests. In 2004 the Australian Magnesium project, underway in Queensland, failed costing the Queensland taxpayers millions of dollars and small investors and communities much, much more. As at 2005 the Australian and state governments, and the experts who rebuffed the overtures of the small company, accept no responsibility.

      Today (September 2005) the Australian government insists that CSIRO, funded for a $50M programme, is still on track and that there is a "flagship" programme in light metals, magnesium technology", that will bear fruit sometime in the distant future. There is no recognition that the creation of a magnesium industry in Australia was blocked by ignorance of technology, lack of vision and the ego of those who purport to know better. In 2006 the small company was taken over by a larger resource entity. They are now diversifying into some new dimensions in mining, perhaps uranium?


    4. The New Zealand government (February - April 2006) is getting cold feet over the actions of Australian Agriculture Minister, Peter McGauran, and his calls for more detailed food labelling. Facing an election in September 2005 that is being called as close, the NZ people might like to opt out of the Australian food labelling regime. Australia has been bending the rules on such things in keeping with its aping support of the US position. It is neither here nor there for NZ because they have an overarching treaty of mutual reciprocation which means what is legal in NZ is legal in Australia, as it relates their imports. This is even so if a food or other item contains an ingredient that is normally banned here. That allows them to bring any NZ product into Australia under their banner. They will exercise their rights and flex their muscles in 2006, causing Minister McGauran a few head aches. One wonders if he is in touch with the New Zealand High Commission all that often? It is just down the road in Canberra, Australia.

      Major Australian chains will do a deal with NZ producers to bring in their food and generic products. You will see produce branded "NZ" in Woolworths and Safeway supermarkets in January 2006. Competing interests will deal a major blow to Australian manufacturers, seeking to bypass the labelling requirements being introduced by Minister for Agriculture, Peter McGauran. They will defeat the Australian farmers who have been driving their tractors assiduously around Australia yelling "buy Australian". These farmers will feel duped, by the seeming inaction of the federal government departments in progressing issues agreed to by peter McGauran. The departments will have to have a study and to prepare a strategy advice paper and that will take them the better part of 2006.

      The retail big chain corporations will move to counter Dick Smith's bright idea for Australian made aisles in shops. How would you know what is Australian? Australian producers should mount a counter strategy with a group like Aldi who use quite a lot of Australian product and who are cheaper than the major supermarkets. They could similarly come to an arrangement with IGA retailers. However the major corporations know of this strategy and perhaps they might want to move behind the scenes, under the radar, cherry picking these stores individually. They will seek to neuter, shackle and eliminate competition through friendly third parties acquirers from overseas. These friendly types buy up the independent retailers and the ACCC might be oblivious.


    5. (2005) Tasmanian potato farmers have been driving tractors around Victoria and are coming to the capital, Canberra, in August 2005, and might like to drop by the NZ High Commission. They are on about McDonalds and other large users of products buying from anywhere but Australia and have Minister McGauran's ear. Meanwhile his cabinet colleagues negotiating Free Trade Agreements and World Trade positions are probably wondering how they might reconcile a "buy Australia" first campaign with the acceptance by governments, and most politicians and corporate leaders, of the economic wonders of free trade for Australia and the 3rd world?


    6. Meantime Australian manufacturers are scared willy - nilly of the supermarket chains creating their three tier house brands and the impact on real brands.

      Coles Myer is their dread and this organisation needs capital to fund its expansion into the petrol game and also into the purchase of plant and manufacturing to expand its domination of food. Where will it get this cash? It will sell its under performing general department and clothing stores and narrows its base out of general merchandising into the more cash rich food, liquor and supermarkets sectors. There will be
      a war, ever expanding, between interests in Australia and multinational investors coming here under Free Trade Agreements.


    7. Richard Mulcahy, a member of the Australian Capital Territory Assembly, will ultimately replace Brendan Smyth as leader of the liberal party in opposition in 2005. Mr. Mulcahy, former National head of the Australian Hotels Association of Australia has more experience than Mr. Smyth. Mr. Mulcahy can challenge the labor government lead by Jon Stanhope. Jon Stanhope is out of his depth even though he heads up a fiefdom of only 300,000 citizens. He exhibits very poor judgement. For example he decided to support public servants and others who are aggrieved at being shown to be derelict of duty and incompetent in relation to the major bushfire that killed people and destroyed hundreds of homes in Canberra. As Attorney General, he adopts the superman profile of the alpha male. "I can be everything at once". He goes off to the Supreme Court to argue the Coroner is biased. He has no idea what biased in this case actually means and seems to be dumb to the fact that the government appointed advisers to the Coroner who actually are beholden to the government and not independent. She thinks they are independent and he does not tell her that they are not. He and everyone else loses, in the court. He says the judgment is flawed. Does it say Jon Stanhope, LLB, (Lawyer) after his name? Stanhope might appear incompetent to some but he is a trier, and is honest.

      The ACT Assembly is a hybrid government, within the Australian Territories legislative framework. It acts more like a local government council and costs more than it delivers in benefits. Seventeen members, earning between $95,000 and $170,000 each in public office, serviced by thousands of public servants, to represent a country town of 300,000 people is farcical. It takes fourty minutes by car in any direction to reach the borders of the Territory. He argues, with his ACT Assembly colleagues, that there should be four additional electoral representatives to serve 300,000 people taking the number to 21. This is a joke but these people live in a rarefied world driven by delusions of being busy and overworked. The ACT could be a serious economic, social and democratic, proposition if talent and merit was the primary mechanism for choosing candidates in the Assembly however it is not. Like every other government in Australia it is the personal fiefdom, and milking cow, of the Labor and Liberal Parties.




    8. The changes to Australia's industrial relations systems will not be well received by the greater number of corporations, employers, employees and citizens. The government relies upon its Constitutional (Corporations) power, which somebody mentioned to them. They seem to have never actually understood the Constitution, if they have read it. It is a complex document beyond the comprehension of many of them in the parliament it would seem because it is premised upon the elected member being accountable to parliament and the people, rather than to the political parties and factions they are in which are not actually mentioned. Despite this they like to rush out ideology without doing their homework. They rely upon wet behind the ears lawyers and public servants who have no experience, history and knowledge of the past. You see the government culled the expertise out because it was suspicious of them. This is typical of people who listen to their own egos talking in their head saying, "you can do this". They just take another political Viagra pill and go for it. They are invariably male. The Minister for Workplace Relations and front bench members of the federal government take their strong men pills every day. The government is disregarding the historical response of Australian citizens to a good industrial war. However there will be no industrial war. Secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Greg Combet, will fight using the tools and tactics of the big end of town and the ones utilised by governments - advertising, spin, media grabs, advertisements and the Internet warriors. He will attack the government on multiple levels and will leverage his own board room networks. Federal Minister Mr. Kevin Andrews is disregarding of, or are oblivious to, the complex nature of IR, education, training and harnessing human talent and he is not a seasoned "fighter" on multiple fronts. From the perspective of the government's corporation powers, not every business and every employer is a corporation, but who cares when you are on a holy mission! The government's tactic is to give them time to get on board pestering them until they surrender and incorporate. Why incorporate if the High Court of Australia is going to rule against the federal government's Work Choices legislation in a number of significant areas, rendering it into a patchwork quilt of incomprehensible legislative "spaghetti". Many of the politicians could not survive a corporate governance audit if they occupied similar ranking positions in the corporate sector. They would fail the acting in good faith ethics and integrity tests required of company Directors. Ministers of Australia's parliaments do not have to justify their position, or performance, on their roles as they demand of employees and other workers. They are protected, and anointed, by a warped and corrupted system. They are allowed to persist in their roles by detached voters who little regard for the quality of government and democracy.

      Just as we revel in the legend of Ned Kelly and the Eureka Stockade, so too has the nation reacted to the legendary war horses of a bygone trade union era who put green bans on buildings and brought services to a halt. They are gone and the populace has no need for unions. At least that is the theory upon which many rely. The pendulum swings. Unions just have to reinvent themselves. The media loves a good story, and pragmatic employers who have much to lose if strikes occur and people become insecure and untrusting, will enter into industrial relations agreements ignoring the pleas of the federal government. The government may well abolish the award system and the industrial relations unfair dismissal protections but it cannot direct people to obey and adopt
      ideological policies . which are premised on distorted bargaining relationships. We have enough of these already in Australia. Coverage, and compliance, across Australia will be patchy and disappointing for the government. They think that it will take a few months to bed down and then all will be forgotten. They will have to prosecute a number of employers as an example to demonstrate their claim of fairness. The Fair Pay Commission will invite more calamity for the government. They really have not thought everything through. Let the dance begin.


    9. Gunn's Timber in Tasmania is using SLAOO suits to silence critics. This is quite stupid and costly. They will ultimately lose their legal suits against environmental and other interests activists who oppose their activities in Tasmania. There might be a number of reasons for this among them the litigious and vexatious nature of the company. Another will be the notion of free speech, particularly if it has a "political connotation". Gunn's decision to take legal action demonstrate the level of immaturity that exists in Australia's corporate thinking, in not realising that dissent is a natural, and desirable part, of a mature and vibrant society. Gunn's association with political parties in Tasmania and the relationships of board members and politics and relationship between Gunns and the public service administrators, and the decision making processes are of public interest. This relationship has taken Gunns into the realm of politics and the High Court has stated that the Australian Constitution guarantees free speech and certain action in the political realm. The question of breaking laws through demonstration and other acts of vandalism is a different question. This episode is one of citizen versus corporation and the state where the latter two appear indivisible. The Tasmanian government, of either political persuasion, has a long history of association with Gunns. The government has a history of ignoring conflicts of interest, a history of collusive behaviour and exclusive dealings with enterprise. This can seen in the historical decisions on gas and Basslink. The Premier of Tasmania accepted significant hospitality from Crown Casino, owned by PBL, and then granted a lucrative gambling license to interests associated with PBL, in a venture. The Premier dissembled as to the meaning of hospitality and then with typical arrogant hubris told those who questioned his judgement to butt out. Tasmania is the least ethical, and maintainer of high standards of integrity, among the nation's governments.




    10. Clare Martin will take labor to a stunning win in the Northern Territory as the Country Liberal Party leader loses his seat


    11. The loss of energy along the power line proposed between Darwin and Queensland would make the CLP's proposal a significant engineering cost impost. To propose this project demonstrates the lack of understanding of energy and a blinkered approach to visionary solutions on this vital topic.

      During the years 2000 - 2002 I travelled the world discussing mineral investments and in a particular meeting with a financial investment manager at Billiton in London I discussed nuclear energy.
      In January 2005 I predicted uranium mines would be expanded and that a nuclear power station is coming in Australia's future and will be built, perhaps near the NSW, Victoria and South Australian borders. I wrote to the Prime Minister, and federal and state Ministers on this issue shortly after and sent emails to members across the parliaments of Australia asking why we could not have a mature debate. Queensland Premier, Peter Beattie is wedded to the coal industry and cannot go with them. Steve Bracks is irrelevant and is still on his "learner's plates" as a leader. He is captive to radical and uneducated (in terms of understanding energy and consumers) "green" interests.

      His ignorant and stubborn refusal to admit that he and his Education Minister are wrong
      to sack the Orbost teacher demonstrates an ignorance of the qualities of leadership. When he is given a choice of backing down he lacks the ability to be humble and generous. His political position is of greater value to him than another person's ;livelihood or dignity. Bracks may be Premier but he certainly is not a "premier" leader.

      He, and his strategists, lost a billion dollar ship building contract to South Australia because they cannot see past their own reflections and egos in the mirror of their self interest. They will not listen on strategy, knowing all of the answers. Hubris reigns supreme in the corridors of labor part hegemony.

    12. Kim Beazley made a tactical error on the taxation issue but his ongoing blunder on immigration will not go away. Unless he gets new advisers, and tacticians, and a new front bench, he will again find that he is a loser in 2007. He has lost the fight and is appears punch drunk, and unless he bites the bullet he will have to resign as Labor leader. Lindsay Tanner will be the leader going into the next federal election.


    13. Former "which bank" employee Ralph Norris, former head of the bank's operations in New Zealand, will be appointed CEO of the Commonwealth Bank to replace retiring David Murray.


    14. Schapelle Corby will be released, eventually, probably about 2007 - 2008, due to diplomacy, politics and behind the scene support by Australian agencies for Indonesia's economic, and social plight, and of course compensating Australia for its part in the drug busts on the Bali nine, handed to them by the AFP, and further drug charges against others. It just takes time for the slow Indonesian politician to grasp that they are mall fry in the region. The public attention has to die down and the wheels of commerce and corruption have to be greased. This may take five years it may take ten.

      Corby has to play the Indonesian game according to their rules, such as they are. The appeal processes in Indonesia border on high farce, and theatrics, with celebrity lawyers and soap television stars. If she, and her Australian supporters, continue with the theatrics then she gets to stay in Bali for a very long time. The court may reinstate her original sentence. When it goes quiet, and she has been suitably chastised, some arrangement will be made.




    15. There will be a full exposure of the performance of the Australian Immigration Department. John Howard will be confronted with a liberal revolt, as the guardians of the party react to the degrading of liberal values, which will expand to engulf his leadership opening the way for Peter Costello. For this reason the private member's bill put forward by Petro Georgiou will succeed in bringing the Prime Minister to the bargaining table. Petro, and the supporters of change, will prevail over Howard, Vanstone and Ruddock.


    16. The Minister Assisting the Minister for Immigration, the Honourable Peter McGauran, will leave his immigration portfolio to take up a new portfolio after John Anderson resigns. This will likely be Transport and Regional Development although other options may be Agriculture, given his farming roots. There will be a reshuffle of Departmental Secretaries. The Honourable Senator, and Minister, Amanda Vanstone will eventually be given another portfolio, though her continued performance in the ones she has held to date should not qualify, and may not do so, for any future inner cabinet roles. Unfairly she takes the flack from enquiries for Philip Ruddock's legacy of culture change in the department and for the omissions of the Foreign Affairs and Justice Ministries who knew that Alvarez was illegally deported as far back as 2003 and did nothing. A guard at Baxter detention centre told DIMIA that Cornelia Rau was probably Australian, and the Department, and ministries, let her stay there.





    17. I was wrong in my prediction that Mark Vaile and Peter McGauran would take over the leadership of the National Party when John Anderson decided to retire. The Deputy leader position went to Warren Truss. However there is a longer-term view in play. Warren Truss is not, on the evidence, a performer and not the best choice for melding agricultural and farming interests back into the party. He will have to relinquish this portfolio because he cannot handle the demands of Deputy and Agriculture. Trade will be his nemesis. Peter McGauran will get the leadership in 2007 if not in late 2006.

      The FTA and Telstra privatisation will prove a far too complex, and dangerous, ground for Mark Vaile and Warren Truss. Telstra is not worth $33 billion as indicated in the budget and parroted by the media. It is not worth $25 billion and may fetch much less than anticipated. The government says that it won't have a fire sale, well that is their only option. Barnaby Joyce may well give ground in return for money and say that is how he represents his state in the Senate under the Constitution. Warren Truss and Mark Vaile have to look towards the resurgence of the National Party and its draw cards. This will necessitate Vaile surrendering the trade portfolio elevating Warren Truss to the role. McGauran is far more skilled at this and it is incongruous that the party has not demonstrated an awareness of the limitations posed by the Vaile/Truss leadership. Truss will ultimately prove the error of their choice and McGauran will assume the Deputy role over time. Perhaps Truss is being temporarily rewarded by the party?


    18. South Australia will win the head contract for the new defence ships defeating Victoria, due to that latter state's poor quality governance, unreliability and industrial record and behind the scenes influences. {Premier Steve Bracks will bleat that it is a federal government set up refusing to admit that he runs a second rate show in Victoria. Business confidence in Victoria will be the lowest in Australia and additionally South Australia has secured an industrial accord with the unions guaranteeing productivity in its manufacturing industries. Victoria's loud bid managed by Premier Steve Bracks, and his league of deluded egos, will lose, but they will not go graciously.




    19. A nuclear power station will be planned for construction on the NSW, South Australia and Victorian borders and the uranium debate will split the labor party machine. Federal Minister MacFarlane, and state Premiers Rann and Carr, might find a new cooperation, what will Bracks do? He will have no idea and will rely upon someone else to tell him. Steve Bracks will be exposed in this session of his Premiership for reliance on an archaic notion of the role of government. Victoria's business confidence will slide, the Commonwealth games will present him with many political surprises, as will the redevelopment of the Spencer Street station. John Brumby's, and the political aspirations of others will end Bracks' political leadership in 2006 - 2007. The state government will suffer a backlash on its arrogant approach to human relations and employment evidenced in its treatment of the teacher at Orbost in Victoria, toll turn around, poor transport planning and decline in services such as mental health, education and over burdensome, greedy taxation policies.

      Bracks will be forced to recant his actions and justifications for destroying peoples' careers, and livelihood, for political self interest and promotion.

      Meanwhile Queensland will push their play in the so-called national electricity market with cogeneration and cross border marketing strategies. The building of a transmission line of capacity between Queensland NSW will become an imperative. There is only one place to go outside of Queensland, to develop revenue, and that is into NSW. Why would Queensland interests not also broaden their strategy nationally, operating cogeneration plant on behalf of customers everywhere and selling products into the developing electricity market? Beattie is wedded to the coal industry and cannot address environmental considerations nor the uranium debate.




    20. If Peter Costello takes the Prime Minister role six months to a year before the next federal election, Labor will not win another federal election until after 2010.




    21. Slow internet speed, and service, in rural Australia is a deliberate technical and economic decision of Telstra and the government could fix the issue but has an agenda to maximise the sell value of the telco.


    22. The balance of 51% of Telstra, when sold, will not reach $30 billion. Why? The maintenance systems and supporting assets (such as telepower supply systems and equipment) that keep the exchanges going are not all that flash and Telstra's been saving money and gambling on risk and their ability to assess it accurately. Reliability issues might arise out of any real third party analysis, and due diligence, conducted by potential and serious buyers. If the little shareholders act on advice of the brokers and push the price they may fulfill the government's budget dream, however it is likely that they may find that their shares, at some later date, when Telstra's international competitors come to play, are not as valuable as they thought.


    23. Telstra services will be blacked out, unexpectedly, in different areas of Australia, due to failure of power supply backup systems and poor or little investment in infrastructure.




    24. The federal government will propose a national human resources talent harnessing strategy and will demand that employers and recruiters change their myopic and discriminatory attitudes. False and misrepresentative employment advertisements placed by recruitment agencies and employers will come under the eye of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission


    25. Substandard employment selection and talent harnessing systems


    26. A recruiter told me that he had 12 years experience and he only ever applied 30 - 40 seconds to reading a resume. This is an indictment of the general industry level of attention given to a decision that impacts the applicant and the employer. There will be a shakeout in the recruitment industry, in the next 12-18 months, due to the excessive number of firms, diversity of quality and customer service and methodologies, and moves by HR divisions to take services in house to control process, costs and protect their turf.


    27. Older applicants are discriminated against in interview and assessments by inexperienced who exhibit a lack of awareness, and seem oblivious, to the background of the industry, history and the relevancy of other material factors that might inform their deliberations. Is industry knowledge relevant? It is when a mid- twenties recruitment consultant thinks that NSW electricity is produced by nuclear power stations at Lucas Heights and other places and is interviewing looking for people with nuclear background to work in what are really thermal coal and gas power stations.

    28. The federal government will launch education campaigns to change the culture of employment practices, seeking to broaden criteria, and advertised experience beyond a particular industry, to stop cannibalism of industry by simply moving people around same industry sectors, to cross pollinate and grow expertise and to harness the full talent of the nation.


    29. There will be a challenge to the excessive, and damaging protectionist activities and assertions by professional associations, who demand that only their respective discipline, and members, are effective performers in specified employment. For example in the UK, a biologist, chemist, computer programmer etc. may be employed in a bank, finance industry or other business working alongside qualified accountants and auditors, whereas in Australia these roles are the reserve of `accountants' and 'CPA's', engineers, doctors, lawyers and the core associations are merely trade unions in disguise.


    30. Registered training organisations will begin to collapse across Australia, in late 2005 and into 2006, due to a crowded market and a rising aversion to the dumbing down of training curricula, a move away from simplistic competency to deeper learning, the impact of Free Trade Agreements, a reaction to the minimal qualifications of the providers, their capacity to deliver and concentrated competition from academically qualified institutions.


    31. Rather than focus on the practice of imbuing performance, attention to quality management, practices and accountability, many governments, institutions and corporations, employ spin doctors and crisis, issue management consultants and tactics, to mask their failures and protect their positions.




    32. What are the expectations of the Qantas Board regarding the performance of the organisation's security management and division? What are we to think about the inconsistencies of statements as to Qantas' management knowledge of baggage handlers' involvement in drugs? Was it that Geoffrey Askew, head of security, knew about it but could not act because Qantas was involved in a covert police operation or is it that the Qantas security management and division failed to do its job? Mr. Askew's days with Qantas are numbered.




    33. Some may think, and well argue, that many segments of Australia's governments, and board rooms, run on rhetoric and outmoded thinking, action and management practices. There is data that indicates that politics and boardrooms are dominated by a small number of conservative, males. There is no national consensus, or plan, to harness and utilise Australia's broad talent base and many people are unemployed or under employed. The most common strategy used by government and business to achieve profit objectives is to shed staff. There is some foundation in the proposition that Australia's human resources are treated as `fodder' rather than as productive assets.




    34. The push for generic manufacturing in place of brands, by the two large retailers, Woolworth's and Coles Myer, will come to the attention of regulators. The Australian Productivity Commission will be asked to carry out an analysis of the social and economic impacts of generics in the light of the effects in the USA, of the Wal Mart chain use of its market power and the replacement of US made goods with cheap imported products. Australian brand manufacturers will rally against the market power of the retail chain giants of Australia. Coles Myer is under attack and being singled out as bad guy in the market power game. They may have to focus and sell off some of their assets. It is a superhuman effort to run them. Additionally the government may well limit how many outlets a company can own in a market segment to introduce real and diverse competition.
    35. The government's initiative regarding Technical Colleges will fail to materialise by middle of 2006 due to the apathy of industry and the poorly constructed model developed by the Department of Education, Science and Training and the Ministry advisers.. Accordingly I wrote to Minister Gary Hargreaves and copied federal Ministers, including Peter McGauran. I met with the latter to discuss my views. The government begs to differ. Oh well another few million down the drain.




    I'm "King Corporate", top of the food chain and bored with all of this public interest nonsense and triple bottom line accounting. It's about the economy stupid!

    I've got a question for you: Is it true that Coca Cola Amatil pays $A1.43 per million litres of water drawn from the Peats Ridge acquifer and bottles it to sell at the prices we all see in supermarkets?
    Now that is good business, turn a valuable public asset into an even more valuable private asset and sell it back to the people who owned it in the first place.

    Poor local Gosford Council (NSW) fears citizens
    will not have enough water for community if CC takes more out of Peats Ridge Aquifer near Gosford in NSW, Australia but Bob Carr's labor state government, demonstrates who's in charge, and over rides the council, to give Coca Cola Amatil its water, at this bargain price, and off to court the rate payers have to go. Other big business has come to play in the region and upset the residents and farmers. Who is it that elected government's represent? Real people who vote, or big corporations that do not?

    Bob Carr, Premier of NSW, seems to know who to jump to.


    The chain of destruction of Australia's intellectual property
    , the national balance sheet. Supermarket Own Labels versus
    Brand Products Australia's executives increasingly Unethical and unconscienable behaviour

    will trigger community, political and regulatory response in 2016-2017 and onwards.