GLOBAL WARMING, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CLIMATE STUDIES AND CLIMATE POLITICS
CARBON AND EMISSIONS TRADING
A comprehensive climate reference guide web site covering the science, debates, news, facts, objections and myths
Kevin Roy Beck
Climate Change & Australia's Policy
There is probably no greater social, economic & political debate raging in the world today (other than terrorism) than climate change zealotry. This so called science has emerged from the back rooms. There are facts, fantasies, distortions and outrageous claims, bleievers and deniers.
The end of the world is forecast by man's own hand. Carbon is evil.
I have chosen links to all manner of sources enabling you to go as shallow, or as deep, as you wish in learning, understanding and forming a view as to the efficacy of claims, and arguments, if you already do not have one.
World Climate News
Debates and Science
Climate Change News
Climate Data Information
Climate Change Blogs
Hydrological Simulation Model
IPA Occasional papers - Energy & Carbon Tax
News, and politics, from around the world
WORLD FACTS, DEBATES AND SCIENCE REFERENCES
World Climate Report
European Commission Climate Action
Science and Climate Change Video
Climate science and policy
Impacts and adaptation
Organizations and activities
Ocean Sciences and Climate
Chapter 1: Schneider et al
On Line Debate and Blog
there is no climate change
between CO2 and Climate Change
Chapter 2: Schneider et al
About Climate Change and Global Warming
There is no such thing as a
A Primer on Climate Change Impacts and
Disaster Risk Management in Urban Areas in East Asia
Change Your Thinking (Resources)
Chapter 3: Schneider et al
Climate Scientists' Blog
Europe Climate Change Policy
the Planetary Gamble
Adaptation and Vulnerability
John Daley and Guest Papers on Climate Change
catalogue references (set 1 - Intergovernmental )
catalogue references (set 2 - United Nations)
catalogue references (set 3 - Greenhouse)
catalogue references (set 4 - Economics of Climate)
Centre University of New South Wales (Australia)
McNeill and Williams
The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy
Adaptation Research Facility (Australia)
Murray Darling Basin Authority
Water Knowledge and Information Directory
FOSSIL FUELS - CARBON
Conservation and Business Directory
Utilities and Regulatory, 1,000 sites
Energy Directory and News Sources
Australian Political: Click on image
His research translates to any society and this case I have compared it to how things work in Australia. The Australian Financial Review published an excellent synopsis (Friday 25 November, 2005, Review 3) of his research in an article written by Paul Monk, who is co-founder of Austhink Consulting and author of "Thunder from the silent zone: rethinking China". Tetlock's work can be applied to the unflinching claims of the Howard government for its Workplace Relations Reforms, justification of war in Iraq, economic policy, investment in R&D and other pet projects and its ideological pursuit of dross.
Similarly it can be used to debunk economic forecasts, political analysis and a host of other "crystal ball" style pronouncements that are used to sell services, dress up stories and drive home points. The research exposes the human tendency to rely on an expert, particularly one with a job that suits and a title to go without. The history of their performance and other traits are never considered nor remembered. He says that "experts are attempting to do with confidence what they demonstrably cannot do very well at all. They make lots of money and kudos from dubious forecasts without ultimate accountability. They are well suited to being politicians particularly Ministers in Australia's governments and consultants and advisers in Australia's top tier companies and public sector enterprises.
They are partisan, rarely admit error or they will give a dozen explanations as to how they got it wrong. Governments, shareholders and businesses lose billions year after year but continue to draw on their services. Monk quotes Tetlock, "we keep running into ideological impasses rooted in each side insisting on being the only judge of its own beliefs and forecasts". Does that have resonance, or sound familiar, in your workplace, communities, in political rhetoric and justification, on television and everywhere? Tetlock found that experts on their home turf made neither better-calibrated nor more discriminating forecasts than did dilettante trespassers. Monk says that Telock found that it made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience in their chosen line of work.
There was no correlation between ideology and accuracy of judgement or precision of forecasting. The experts tended not to adjust their beliefs when the evidence came in but to rationalise or outright deny their errors. Is that familiar too? Seems our politicians have this gene. The dominant danger he concluded was hubris closed mindedness, dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly. Resistance is fierce particularly from those with grand reputations but humble track records.
Tetlock did find that exacting research using scientific and other proven techniques based on solid empirical evidence and statistical analysis and checking, using large volumes of data and input over time did impact on the accuracy and quality. This is the intrinsic objective of the design of the Mosaic Portal.
Political, corporate, social and economic
a myriad of information sources
All Sides of the debate and sciences