KEVIN ROY BECK MOSAIC PORTAL

COMPREHENSIVE CLIMATOLOGY


GLOBAL WARMING, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CLIMATE STUDIES AND CLIMATE POLITICS

CARBON AND EMISSIONS TRADING

A comprehensive climate reference guide web site covering the science, debates, news, facts, objections and myths

Another free to use public interest web site on the
Mosaic Portal
Created by
Kevin Roy Beck









Climate Change & Australia's Policy


The more threatening the shadows that fall on the present day from a terrible future looming in the distance, the more compelling the shock that can be provoked by dramatizing risk today. Established risk definitions are thus a magic wand with which a stagnant society can terrify itself (Beck, U, 1999, World Risk Society, pp. 137-8).

There is probably no greater social, economic & political debate raging in the world today (other than terrorism) than climate change zealotry. This so called science has emerged from the back rooms. There are facts, fantasies, distortions and outrageous claims, bleievers and deniers.

The end of the world is forecast by man's own hand. Carbon is evil.

I have chosen links to all manner of sources enabling you to go as shallow, or as deep, as you wish in learning, understanding and forming a view as to the efficacy of claims, and arguments, if you already do not have one.





Carbon
Pricing
Facts Today's
World Climate News
World Climate
Debates and Science
Fossil Fuels Australia


Australia's Water
Dissent

Nuclear






Climate Change News

Climate Data Information

Climate Change Blogs


Hydrological Simulation Model

CO2 emissions
by country




Institute of Public Affairs


Institute of Public Affairs Energy Papers
IPA Occasional papers - Energy & Carbon Tax






Bookmark and Share







Information, Commentary and Reporting






News, and politics, from around the world

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Global Warming


Climate News


WORLD FACTS, DEBATES AND SCIENCE REFERENCES

World Climate Report

European Commission Climate Action

Science and Climate Change Video

Tiempo Climate Cyber Library


COVERING

Individual responses to climate change
Climate politics
Climate science and policy
Impacts and adaptation
Emissions control
Organizations and activities

Access all of the above through the Tiempo Climate Cyber Portal

Basics of Climate Change from New Scientist

The Unbearable Nakedness of Climate Change

Climate Science and Meteorology

Climate Niche, Earth
Ocean Sciences and Climate

Carbon Pricing

Understanding Climate Science,
Chapter 1: Schneider et al


Skeptical Science



DISSENT


Climate Change Fraud Unravels
On Line Debate and Blog

It's cold so
there is no climate change

Climate Denial - video

Climate Apocolypse - videos

There is no climate change - videos

There is no correlation
between CO2 and Climate Change

There is no climate change

Uncertainty and Climate Change,
Chapter 2: Schneider et al

Beware of the Nonsense

The Alternative Views to Populism
About Climate Change and Global Warming

The Heat Is OnLine

Global Warming
There is no such thing as a
perfect temperature



OTHER REFERENCES AND SOURCES


Green Cities Launch Event:
A Primer on Climate Change Impacts and
Disaster Risk Management in Urban Areas in East Asia
Click Here



Small Business and Climate Change

World Changing
Change Your Thinking (Resources)

Earth Systems Engineering and Management
Chapter 3: Schneider et al

Source Watch - Climate Change

Shell - Climate Change Blog

BBC - Climate Change in Depth

BBC - Interactive Guide

Real Climate
Climate Scientists' Blog

United Nations Intergovernmental Panel

Climate Science Watch

Greenhouse and Global Change
Worldwide Directory

Euractiv
Europe Climate Change Policy

Nuclear Report (Austria)

World Watch

Encyclopedia of climate and weather
Professor Schneider

The Genesis Strategy
Professor Schneider

The Coevolution of Climate and Life

The Greenhouse Century

Laboratory earth
the Planetary Gamble

Climate 2001 Impacts
Adaptation and Vulnerability

Guidance Paper on Key Uncertainties

Publications of Professor Schneider

Alternative Contributions
John Daley and Guest Papers on Climate Change


AUSTRALIA

Australian National Library
catalogue references (set 1 - Intergovernmental )

Australian National Library
catalogue references (set 2 - United Nations)

Australian National Library
catalogue references (set 3 - Greenhouse)

Australian National Library
catalogue references (set 4 - Economics of Climate)

Climate Change Research
Centre University of New South Wales (Australia)

The economics of climate change: An examination of the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid proposal for a carbon price for Australia
McNeill and Williams

McKibbin
The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy


WATER - AUSTRALIA

The National Climate Change
Adaptation Research Facility (Australia)

9 facts about climate change

Garnaut Climate Change Review, Australia

Australia's Water

Murray Darling Basin Authority

Water Knowledge and Information Directory


FOSSIL FUELS - CARBON

Clean Coal and Other Greenhouse Myths

Carbon Monitoring
CO2 Emissions

Why Carbon Matters










FOSSIL FUELS, RELATED SOURCES, ARTICLES AND LATEST NEWS



Carbon Brief










Mining the World












ENERGY REFERENCES


Energy Types, and Sources, Directory

Renewable Energy

Energy Companies By Category Directory

Energy Types, Sources, Economics,
Conservation and Business Directory

CARBON MARKET PRICES

Australian Coal Industry R&D Programme

Commodities Now On Line

Is this what you want for Australia?
Click Here

uranium

International Utility Regulatory Institutions

Energy Types, Sources,
Utilities and Regulatory, 1,000 sites

Sustainable Energy Finance Directory

Clean Energy

Nanotechnology Companies

Alternative Energy Directory

Carbon Offsets (Australia)

Dirty Energy and Health

Nuclear Report (Austria)

Clean and Renewable
Energy Directory and News Sources

Wind Energy

Global Energy Marketplace





Go to my Planet





KEVINRBECK commentary writings
Australian Political: Click on image





Are the experts expert?


Experts are everywhere. Governments and corporations use them, the media, public and private entities. They inhabit universities. They inhabit disciplines. There are a number of prime experts that are driving government policy, thinking and response. Governmment economists (in Treasury and in Finance and Administration) and theorists engaged in climate change and carbon trading. So are they really expert? Philip Tetlock, a psychologist with a Phd from Yale has spent much of his time at the Universities of California, Berkely and Ohio. What makes him unique in the world of academic research is that he has produced a seminal and intensive study of the world of experts, of all types, and assessed whether they are any better at their activity than a novice such as me (KEVINRBECK). Philip has published his research in "Expert Political Judgement: How good is it? How can we know? (Princeton University Press).

His research translates to any society and this case I have compared it to how things work in Australia. The Australian Financial Review published an excellent synopsis (Friday 25 November, 2005, Review 3) of his research in an article written by Paul Monk, who is co-founder of
Austhink Consulting and author of "Thunder from the silent zone: rethinking China". Tetlock's work can be applied to the unflinching claims of the Howard government for its Workplace Relations Reforms, justification of war in Iraq, economic policy, investment in R&D and other pet projects and its ideological pursuit of dross. Similarly it can be used to debunk economic forecasts, political analysis and a host of other "crystal ball" style pronouncements that are used to sell services, dress up stories and drive home points. The research exposes the human tendency to rely on an expert, particularly one with a job that suits and a title to go without. The history of their performance and other traits are never considered nor remembered. He says that "experts are attempting to do with confidence what they demonstrably cannot do very well at all. They make lots of money and kudos from dubious forecasts without ultimate accountability. They are well suited to being politicians particularly Ministers in Australia's governments and consultants and advisers in Australia's top tier companies and public sector enterprises.

They are partisan, rarely admit error or they will give a dozen explanations as to how they got it wrong. Governments, shareholders and businesses lose billions year after year but continue to draw on their services. Monk quotes Tetlock, "we keep running into ideological impasses rooted in each side insisting on being the only judge of its own beliefs and forecasts". Does that have resonance, or sound familiar, in your workplace, communities, in political rhetoric and justification, on television and everywhere? Tetlock found that experts on their home turf made neither better-calibrated nor more discriminating forecasts than did dilettante trespassers. Monk says that Telock found that it made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience in their chosen line of work.

There was no correlation between ideology and accuracy of judgement or precision of forecasting. The experts tended not to adjust their beliefs when the evidence came in but to rationalise or outright deny their errors. Is that familiar too? Seems our politicians have this gene. The dominant danger he concluded was hubris closed mindedness, dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly. Resistance is fierce particularly from those with grand reputations but humble track records.

Tetlock did find that exacting research using scientific and other proven techniques based on solid empirical evidence and statistical analysis and checking, using large volumes of data and input over time did impact on the accuracy and quality. This is the
intrinsic objective of the design of the Mosaic Portal.



Political, corporate, social and economic




Sociology, tools for interpreting, and testing, spin speak





Click here for the latest news and
a myriad of information sources
All Sides of the debate and sciences