CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING,
EMISSIONS TRADING PROPOSAL AND CARBON POLLUTION REDUCTION IN AUSTRALIA

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Australia's Proposed Emission Trading Scheme


The Campaign To Stop The ETS


Oh Minister, Penny Wong It's Not True

"One of the enduring pillars of the climate change issue is that the temperature of the Earth is increasing at an unprecedented rate … we’ve heard it a million times over the past few decades. However, it is well known that the temperature of the Earth has not increased over the past decade, and the lack of recent warming is now receiving serious consideration in the leading scientific journals." (Source: World Climate Report, February 1, 2010)


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COMMENTARY by KEVIN R BECK, Melbourne, Australia


HOW LONG HAS AUSTRALIA'S FEDERAL GOVERNMENT KNOWN?


The Australian federal government, lead by Prime MInister Kevin Rudd, has used selective data to justify its position and policy on Emissions trading. The question arises as to how long has the Prime Ministre, The Climate Change Minister Penny Wong and the Environment Minister, Peter Garrett, known that what they were telling us was, and is, not true. Now their cover is blown they are somewhat silent. Perhaps they are in shell shock, or damage mode, as we take apart their theories, arguments and plans, expsoing their mendacity. What are the several hundred new public servants within the Climate Change Department doing if the bedrock of the government's justification has melted? What are the Australian state's, and territories, new positions, and policies, on climate change and the unravelling of their own rubbish policies and justfications? I expect that the labor party Ministers at federal, state and territory levels will act as if nothing has changed and will be pig headed in their pursuit of their own ideology and views. They will spin, at every turn, creating an illusion of never having made a mistake. (Kevin R Beck, February 2010)



"The ice melt across during the Antarctic summer (October-January) of 2008-2009 was the lowest ever recorded in the satellite history. Such was the finding reported last week by Marco Tedesco and Andrew Monaghan in the journal Geophysical Research Letters: A 30-year minimum Antarctic snowmelt record occurred during austral summer 2008–2009 according to spaceborne microwave observations for 1980–2009" (Source:
World Climate Report, October 6, 2009)

"UN science report which stated Himalayan glaciers would melt within 25 years 'was a guess' By DAVID DERBYSHIRE, 18th January 2010

Claims by the world's leading climate scientists that most of the Himalayan glaciers will vanish within 25 years were last night exposed as nonsense. The alarmist warning appeared two years ago in a highly influential report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. At the time the IPCC insisted that its report contained the latest and most detailed evidence yet of the risks of man-made climate change to the planet."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1243963/UN-science-report-stated-Himalayan-glaciers-melt-25-years-guess.html#ixzz0cw1TMdZF" (Source: Mail Online: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1243963/UN-science-report-stated-Himalayan-glaciers-melt-25-years-guess.html)

Here in Australia, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Climate Change Minister, Senator Penny Wong and Environment Minister, Peter Garrett, have all claimed the science and evidence based fact for their arguments and dire predictions.

Inter alia, "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104" (Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm)

"We're already seeing changes. Glaciers are melting,... Cliamte Crisis, http://www.climatecrisis.net/climate-change.php)

The Australian labor government based their claims of a need for an Emissions Trading Scheme in Australia on the science of climate change and the evil demon - carbon. In the parliaments they have cast asperions on the integrity of people and issued insulting remarks. Now these three are silent. Thweir spin doctors and parastic manipulators of truh amd fact are working on a new fiction to extract the Prime Minister and two Ministers from an embarrassing situation. Denigrating those who questioned them or dismissive in their attitudes they are being shown to have been gullible. Very busy people, relyting on others, and simply swallowing the tripe put before them. The reserachers in the Australian Department of Climate Change should surely be questioned as to their reserach, and analysis, capabilities and indepndent thinking capacities. (Kevin R Beck, January 2010)

" ClimateGate's Michael Mann Received Stimulus Funds

By NOEL SHEPPARD From the Media Research Center A scientist in the middle of the ClimateGate scandal received economic stimulus funds last June. As NewsBusters reported on November 28, Penn State University is investigating Professor Michael Mann, the creator of the discredited "Hockey Stick Graph," for his involvement in an international attempt to exaggerate and manipulate climate data in order to advance the myth of manmade global warming. According to the conservative think tank the National Center for Public Policy Research, Mann received $541,184 in economic stimulus funds last June to conduct climate change research. With this in mind, NCPPR issued a press release Thursday asking for these funds to be returned: In the face of rising unemployment and record-breaking deficits, policy experts at the National Center for Public Policy Research are criticizing the Obama Administration for awarding a half million dollar grant from the economic stimulus package to Penn State Professor Michael Mann, a key figure in the Climategate controversy. " (Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703657604575005412584751830.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

JANUARY 16TH, 2010 16:50, Climategate goes American: NOAA, GISS and the mystery of the vanishing weather stations (Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/jamesdelingpole/)

ANUARY 14TH, 2010 23:19, Dodgy GISS temperature records exposed: the US Climategate? (Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/jamesdelingpole/)

JANUARY 14TH, 2010 9:56, 'AGW? I refute it THUS!': Central England Temperatures 1659 to 2009 (Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/jamesdelingpole/)

The collateral damage from the emails is large
ClimateGate doesn’t just bring down the scientists who wrote the emails, it brings down all the institutions and organizations that were supposed to have exacting standards and ought to have exposed the crimes years ago. The men whose work was so bogus, were lauded by the IPCC, published in Nature and Science, and defended by the National Academy of Science. This evidence of collusion, falsification, hiding data, and consistent deceit blows away the infrastructures of the practice of science. It doesn’t hurt the scientific method, but it destroys the premise that the IPCC expert review means anything, that peer review is capable of even picking up outright fraud, and that the National Academy of Science is functional. …the journals, the famous peer review, the committees with international reviewers: they have also been exposed as corrupted. In other words, all the human processes of science, the journals, the famous peer review, the committees with international reviewers: they have also been exposed as corrupted to some degree." (Source: The ClimateGate Virus, http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/the-climategate-virus/)



WHO'S COOKING THE BOOKS?

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says that the outcome of the Copenhagen meeting is substantial. There is agreement to keep global warming at 2 dgrees. Who thought up this figure and how accurate is it?

"On Tuesday, we heard via the Ria Novosti agency that the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change had probably tampered with Russian-climate data:

The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory. Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country’s territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports. Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations. The data of stations located in areas not listed in the Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature UK (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The HadCRUT database includes specific stations providing incomplete data and highlighting the global-warming process, rather than stations facilitating uninterrupted observations. They concluded climatologists use the incomplete findings of meteorological stations far more often than those providing complete observations and data from stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban-warming effect more frequently than the correct data of remote stations.

Paint-by-Numbers Science

Imagine a paint-by-numbers kit with 12 colors of the spectrum — from purple and blue, green to yellow, orange and red, each numbered. When you finish coloring the areas in the coloring book or canvas with the appropriate color number, you have a color painting for the fridge. Suppose you got a version with only the number 1 and 2 colors marked. You have the colors — but what you end up with is a patchwork of two colors on a white background, with lines defining other areas. You could guess about the other colors, but the end result may not be what the original creator had in mind. Believe it or not, this very simple analogy applies to the claims of global warming....

And NASA uses the GHCN, applying their own adjustments, as we reported in this story: Perhaps one of the biggest issues with the global data is station dropout after 1990. Over 6000 stations were active in the mid-1990s. Just over 1000 are in use today. The stations that dropped out were mainly rural and at higher latitudes and altitudes — all cooler stations. This alone should account for part of the assessed warming. China had 100 stations in 1950, over 400 in 1960, then only 25 by 1990. This changing distribution makes any assessment of accurate change impossible." (Source: Climategate: … And Just Like That, the Warming’s Gone (PJM Exclusive) The Russian paint-by-numbers data. The CRU data matching NOAA and NASA. What's left?, December 17, 2009 - by Joseph D'Aleo, James Delingpole, in the Telegraph, noted Wednesday: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/daleo-and-just-like-that-the-warmings-gone-pjm-exclusive/)



POLITICIANS ARROGANCE AND HUBRIS

The leaders of the world, at the Copenhagen Climate talks, in December 2009, have decided that they will alter the future of the world by keeping global warming at, or below, 2 degrees. What arrogance is this that they think that they are capable of harnessing, and controlling, the natural order of things. To bring the planet to heel. Who arrived at this figure and how? There comes a time when we have to ask our political leaders, and perhaps ourselves, what is the extent of hubris, that man would assume they are the greatest impact, and influence, on this earth. What arrogance to to assume the power of the God being in their puny activities on this earth? (Kevin R Beck, December 2009)



Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong Bungle ETS

Did they deliberately set out to mislead us?


It is not clear how Kevin Rudd arrives at strategy and who has influence? It is clear that the Australian labor party, or for that matter also the liberal, national and greens parties, have substandard intelligence gathering networks and systems. If the labor party had a sophisticated mechanism in place then they would not have been blindsided by Tony Abbott. They would also be well aware that the Australian electorate is not on board with the government's ETS (Emission Trading Scheme). They would also have a better understanding as to where to gather their information and identify the protagonists and the barrier creationists.

The government's Emission Trading Scheme is under serious threat internally within Australia. Climate Change and Water Minister, Senator Penny Wong, has not covered all the bases and has failed to clearlt articulate the scheme. To simply put a "spin" argument on the web purporting to be a full justification is not the manner in which this issue should be approached. There are hidden forces, and interests, who intend to stymy and kill off the government's ETS.

The process adopted by Kevin Rudd, regarding policy development is a myopic and bureaucratic one. The Australian media has focused on Mr Rudd's propensity for the "research and enquiry" based approach. What they have not looked at are the pitfalls in this approach. The practically oriented, invariably those who may have little regard for, or little deeper education, may eschew Mr Rudd's approach. They may prefer historical experience

"If practitioners shun theory then they must rely on experience as a guide to action. In deciding on their response to a problem they draw on a range of options suggested by previous experience with that type of issue. However, “it is wishful thinking to assume that experience alone will teach leaders everything they need to know” (Copland et al, 2002, p. 75)." (in Theories of Educational Management, Tony Bush, http://cnx.org/content/m13867/latest/)

The Climate Change Department of the Commonwealth government may have failed the Senator in its role since it is a new and powerfulk department at the apex of government policy. What has been the focus of this agency?

"Niskanen argues that the size of the discretionary budget (Y) reflects the reward structure in the bureaucratic environment...Niskanen begins by showing that bureaucrats maximize personal utility (wages and perks) by maximising the agency's budget. Actually, he corrects this statement. Instead: bureaucrats maximise objectives defined in terms of the agency's discretionary budget. (The discretionary budget is the difference between the budget parliament gives and the cost to the agency of producing its output)." (Source: Niskanen: Bureaucrats and politicians, Journal of Law and Economics 18 (December): 617-43.)

"In an address to senior public servants in April 2008, the Prime Minister observed that, ‘evidence-based policy-making is at the heart of being a reformist government’. I want to explore why that is profoundly true; what it means in practice, and some implications for those of us in public administration. In doing so, I will draw on the experience of the Productivity Commission—which with its predecessors has been at the heart of evidence- based policy-making in Australia for over three decades—to distil some insights into what is needed across government generally if we are to be successful.

It is as important that we have a rigorous, evidence-based approach to public policy in Australia today as at any time in our history. This country faces major long-term challenges; challenges that have only been exacerbated by the economic turbulence that we are struggling to deal with right now. When the present crisis is over, we will still have the ongoing challenges of greenhouse, the ageing of our population and continuing international competitive pressures. We should not underestimate the significance of those challenges, which place a premium on enhancing the efficiency and productivity of our economy." (Source of extract: Contemporary Government Challenges Challenges of evidence-based policy-making, Gary Banks AO, Australian Public Service Commission, http://www.apsc.gov.au/publications09/evidencebasedpolicy.htm)

Thus we might say that the Prime Minister is more academic than bureaucrat, though there are overlaps in the profile of each type. In the case of the Australian ETS proposal there is little evidence to show that the examination, and choice, of this particular mechanism (ETS) to address climate change was academically, bureaucratically or politically astute. Because a topic is complex and detailed, that should not mean that there is no attempt to explain it. The government's behaviour in ths regard bears examination and demands explanation.

The Honourable Minister, Senator Wong, appeared to my mind to speak all too often in generalities bristling with political barbs. Then the government, and particularly, Mr Rudd and Ms Wong, intertwine Climate Change and the ETS as if they are homogenous and synonymous. This is not merely disingenuous it bordres on both misrepresentation and questionable behaviour. The ETS has nothing to do with climate change. The ETS is a contrived (creatd) market instrument. The theory is that price and market forces bring about Emissions reduction, investment in renewable energy and changes in behaviour.

"ETS will kill Tourism, Transport and Trade, By Viv Forbes Saturday, Canada Free Press, September 12, 2009

Emissions trading schemes proposed for the western world will guarantee another global financial crisis for tourism, transport and world trade. All carbon control schemes have at their core two essential features aimed at reducing man’s production of the harmless gas, carbon dioxide. Firstly, increasingly severe rationing of carbon dioxide (CO2) releases. And secondly, taxes on all permitted Emissions and punitive taxes on any excess. They are all Ration-and-Tax Schemes and they will all enforce arbitrary reductions by 2020. But not one car, truck, bus, train, plane or ship can move without producing CO2. There is no possibility that this will change significantly before the doomsday year of 2020, just a decade away. Therefore neither Australia nor New Zealand can cut CO2 Emissions by 2020 without slowly strangling all those industries that rely on moving people or goods.

Our politicians should be asked, individually, what food, mineral products and travel they propose doing without in order to meet the 2020 cuts specified in their Ration-and-Tax Schemes.

Australia and New Zealand comprise four lonely islands in the vast southern oceans which stretch from Africa to South America However, world population, political power and finance are concentrated far away in the Northern Hemisphere.

Apart from a few stock horses used by drovers, the occasional sailing yacht, some suburban bicycles and some hydro power that moves trains, our transport fleets rely totally on petrol, diesel, gas and coal. There are no solar powered aeroplanes or sail powered ocean liners – all produce CO2. Neither country can import tourists, get mineral and food products to their cities or export goods to world markets without producing CO2." (Source of extract as cited, An Honest Climate Debate, Exposing the truth about the Man-Made Climate Change theory, http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2009/09/16/ets-will-kill-tourism-transport-and-trade/)




Australia November 2009: RUDD LABOR GOVERNMENT DOES NOT MAKE IT EASY TO UNDERSTAND THEIR ARGUMENTS AND POLICIES





Australia's Emission Trading Scheme



Let the dance begin


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"ETS passes first hurdle

16 November 2009 | 08:25:03 PM | Source: AAP,

Agriculture will be excluded from the ETS. (AAP)

Australia has moved one step closer to having an Emissions trading scheme after draft laws passed the lower house, as the government hinted there was more room to move on the coalition's wishlist of changes. Government backflip on Emissions Govt and coalition strike first ETS deal Greens attack ETS deal as poll shows public want greater cut As widely expected, the controversial carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS) passed the lower house on Monday after the government used its numbers to push it through. With the legislation now moving to the Senate, where the real debate begins, the most important negotiations continue to be played out behind closed doors. Climate Change Minister Penny Wong and the coalition's negotiator, Ian Macfarlane, remain locked in negotiations even as the legislation moves through the parliament. It's going down to the wire, with meetings planned for this week and not ruled out for the next. But the odds of a positive outcome appear to have firmed. Senator Wong is not ruling out additional concessions after conceding to a major coalition request on the weekend to remove agriculture from the scheme. (Source: SBS Australia, http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1132837/latest-from-wire/)

" Lib MPs offer to quit over Malcolm Turnbull's ETS strategy

Samantha Maiden, Online Political Editor From: The Australian November 25, 2009 12:03PM

THREE junior Liberal frontbenchers have offered their resignations in the latest wildcat action against Malcolm Turnbull's leadership. As Mr Turnbull prepares to call for a show of hands on a leadership spill today, in an attempt to knock the leadership issue on the head, The Australian Online understands Matthias Cormann, Mitch Fifield and Brett Mason have offered to quit. Mr Turnbull has not accepted their resignations. The Coalition leader has challenged MPs to call on a leadership spill at a lunchtime party room meeting. But senior figures expect a show of hands will determine not to pursue the matter, stopping Kevin Andrews leadership tilt in its tracks. The Australian Online understands Mr Turnbull will not declare the leadership vacant. He will ask for a show of hands on whether the partyroom wants a leadership contest. Liberal frontbenchers believe MPs will not vote for a leadership spill at this time." (Source: The Australian November 25, 2009 - http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/lib-mps-offer-to-quit-over-malcolm-turnbulls-ets-strategy/story-e6frgczf-1225803641304)

" Malcolm Turnbull compared to Robert Mugabe as Liberal anger over ETS boils over

AAP From: AAP November 25, 2009 9:31AM

(1 vote) Opposition against leadership spill Malcolm Turnbull has survived an attempt by his critics to bring down his leadership. Views today: 164 UPDATE 2.40pm: A FEDERAL Liberal MP has compared Malcolm Turnbull to Zimbabwe dictator Robert Mugabe. Peter Slipper made the comments after the opposition leader declared the joint parties room had accepted coalition amendments to Labor's Emissions trading scheme (ETS). "The leader last night was about as dodgy as a Zimbabwean election organised by Robert Mugabe,'' Mr Slipper told reporters in Canberra this morning. "I don't want to make any comment other than that.'' Mr Turnbull survived by a narrow margin this afternoon, when a secret ballot of Liberal MPs to decide on a leadership spill saw a leadership motion defeated by 48 to 35." (Source: Herald Sun, Melbourne, http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-compared-to-robert-mugabe-as-liberal-anger-over-ets-boils-over/story-e6frf7jo-1225803552474)

" ETS deal - Bob Brown,

A 'cave-in to the big polluters'. That's how Greens leader Bob Brown describes the revamped ETS deal. He's critical of the amended Emissions Trading legislation, saying it's too generous to polluters. The Coalition secured an extra $7 billion in industry assistance over 10 years and much of the extra cash will go to the coal sector and electricity generators. Bob Brown says the government and the opposition have delivered a Polluters PayDay." (Source: ABC Australia, http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2009/2752619.htm)



Australia (commentary by Kevin R Beck) We can ignore the convoluted, and irksome presentation style, and language, of the Prime Minister, hopefully looking to the essence of the message however this is difficult. Moreso when it involves a significant issue. Almost every statement from the newer generation (2009) of labor governemnt Ministers, not the seasoned ones such as Simon Crean, John Faulkner, Lindsay Tanner, to name a few, is peppered with insults, smart commentary, and metaphors. Words that largely seek to degrade rather than inform or a tortured evasive presentation. Then there is the 'echo" whereby the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister trot out the same sentences by rote. They carry the spin doctor's message" to us all, in every interview, causing a nauseous bile to rise. Do they not have independent thoughts of their own? What constituency do these people represent? Those who elected them or their political party? The answer is readily apparent. The latter.

Take for example the Minister for Climate Change, Penny Wong's diatribe some months back, in response to the Oppositions proposals for a reworked Emissions Trading Scheme, or Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (they cannot get a single name for it) - she called it a "mongrel". This choice of words may hark back to her past working job as an industrial lawyer, take no prisoners, give no ground, or it may be a product of her deeper character traits. Whatever the reason, when she resorts to crass and worthless metaphors, that have no substance, she demeans her highly educated articulate self. She instead presents as a Minister more interested in head kicking than assisting the electorate to understand the very complex issue. This may be all very entertaining for a moribund narrow minded media and political commentators, but it is rather irelevant to the wider electorate.

The Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd, has a penchant for trying to be witty with metaphors. It does not help that Senator Xenophon started the animal references when he referred to the labor ETS policy as a "dog". However he is not a federal Minister though we can expect more and he might in future show us that he is capable of higher level language skills also.

Frontier Economics undertook the
study for the liberal party and independent senator Nick Xenophon.

Extract "Wong attacks Turnbull's 'mongrel' Emissions trading plan
Christian Kerr | August 10, 2009, The Australian
CLIMATE Change Minister Penny Wong has accused Malcolm Turnbull of rehashing failed overseas policy in a "mongrel" Emissions trading proposal that would not tackle climate change. Turnbull's lean, green environment... The Opposition claims its alternative scheme to tackle climate change will be cheaper and greener... In a feisty response to Mr Turnbull's argument for changes to the Government's legislation, Senator Wong warned that the Government would push on with its CPRS plan “for as long as we have to”. (source: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25908313-601,00.html)

Feisty? I would call it puerile if she was a boy and immature grabage for a senior Minister of the Crown. Kevin Rudd presents no better example or carefully articulated response in the parliament on August 11, 2009.

"Mr Rudd used question time to claim the Opposition was seeking to hide its own divisions. "They are not united by a policy on climate change, they are united in their opposition to our policy on climate change,'' the Prime Minister said. He said Mr Turnbull's alternative scheme was ``an absolute, rolled gold, unreconstructed Liberal party magic pudding". (Source: Kevin Rudd exploits Coalition's Emissions trading 'disunity', Christian Kerr | August 11, 2009, Extract from an article in The Australian - KEVIN Rudd has accused the Coalition of trying to buy time over the Emissions trading scheme - http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25915387-5013871,00.html).

Did he think up this smart response all by himself or is it a product from his spin meister advisers? Regardless it is inane. It adds no value and demonstrates the quality of debate in our federal parliament. Never mind that Independent Senator Nick Xenopohon funded the Frontier Economics study with the liberal party. The Prime Minister, and Minister, are too mealy mouthed and insulting to give him the time of day or acknowledgement, except when they need his vote in the Senate. They also insult Frontier Economics, but hey that is politics and their political objectives, ideas and opinions, carry higher status, and worth, don't they?

This ia very complex, and unclear science, and a major economic impacting piece of legislation. Yet the way the Prime Minister approaches the task of getting his "political strategy" through is to ram it and hammer, as if we are just side line players in some facade that passes for democratic government and professional politics. The majority of Australians may well think - a pox on both the liberal, and labor parties, in parliaments across the nation. This labor policy will destroy jobs, comunity and sectors of the Australian economy, all in the name of political ideology, some crystal ball gazing and the nurturing of a war within the science fraternity.


AUSTRALIAN SENATOR STEVE FIELDING CREDIBLE PARLIAMENTARY PERFORMER ON CLIMATE CHANGE


If Australians are looking for an independent source, with little vested political interest, on the climate change debate then they could probably look no farther than the Senator Steve Fielding, who used his own funds and time, to travel internationally to try and discern credible arguments on climate change.

" Australia is really yet to have the debate about what is driving climate change. For years I believed, like most of us, that man made carbon dioxide Emissions were the main cause of global warming. However, over the last few months after speaking to a number of scientists both here and overseas I have discovered the science on both sides of the debate isn’t conclusive. The government needs to explain to the Australian people why global temperatures have remained steady over the last 10-15 years despite skyrocketing man made carbon Emissions." (Senator Fielding)

He has no peer in the Australian parliament in this regard. He is former engineer and has approached his task methodically. This probably irks the charismatic, but perhaps lesser informed, or open minded, Minister for Climate Change Ms. Penny Wong who prefers to talk in generalities, doomsday theories and language. She has a
brand new department engaged in publishing papers reporting doomsday scenarios for Melbourn'es heritage Buildings. This is trite, and shallow, rubbish that the government is serving up through its spin machines which now involve using government agencies. It should stick to substantial matters which are on its web site rather than sensational material supporting political agendas.

To have a look at Senator Fielding's material,
click here.




Commentary by Kevin R Beck

March 2009: Australian government Minister Wong has released the government's
Emission Trading Scheme draft legislation.

In the climate change debate is further clouded by the hysterical, and unfounded statements, of Green Senators in the federal and state parliaments, their supporters and delibeate misleading political partisan propositions. The business interests are not likely to examine the benefits in the cold light of public interest preferring to frame their responses for self interest cloaked in emotive spin, like loss of jobs, fear mongering and holier than thou, hand on heart take the money and run. We know this methodology from the current behaviour of manufacturers abandoning ship in Australia whilst trying to suck up every last public dollar or demanding public funds to hang around.

The greater number of people, in Australia, simply take little interest in anything to do with public policy and government unless it directly affects them. In Victoria we have the state government saying that they will invest a $A100 million, provided the federal government matches that amount, to build a solar power station. This wonder of technology will serve 50,000 residences. This is the sort of suspect justified, irresponsible propositions put about by politicians who want to get on the climate change band wagon and spruik their credentials. This, like Victoria's energy hungry multi billion dollar,
desalination plant is a gross waste of public money.


December 2008: The Australian labor government unveils climate change ETS scheme

The Australian government plan calls for a minimum 5% reduction in greenhouse Emissions within a range up to 15% by 2020. The 5% is easily achievable for Australia's energy generators including brown, and black coal, power stations. There need be no major cost increase upon consumers becaue of this scheme but they will try and use this to increase their revenue charges claimimg the ETS as a justification. The energy regulators, in the states and the National Electricity Market, will need to be well versed and also be vigilant.

In Victoria Australia the largest generation base is in the brown coal laden Latrobe Valley. Here the greatest impost may occur because brown coal is one of the hardest fuels to burn. The effeciency of power stations varies but is at the low end. Economics plays a big role in decisions and one power station may opt for megawatts output, when they refurbish turbines and boilers, with trade offs against efficiency because they want to make money from the electricity market. It is efficiency that will affect the Emissions. One of the oldest stations in the Valley has markedly improved its efficiency. At the other end of the scale it appears that one of the generators hardly tries to improve efficiency. Perhaps the owners are not inclined to spend money?

One issue that must be addressed in the oevrall national approach is to bring the disparate state scehemes into kine or shut them down. There is much inconsistency between the states and their schemes and within this is volatility, and morbidity, of the price of credits. The NSW gas scheme has seen the value of a tonne of carbon offset drop from $A14.00 to about $A5.00 due to very poor regulatory oversight and general gaming. For example the replacement of traditional light bulbs with new incandescent globes. Working the system has enabled the price of credit to be impacted due to the timeframes allowed for the globes impact in to the market.

There is low, if any, inducemnet to invest in renewables as credit unit values have declined there also. There was a rush by state government agencies, without adequate planning and understanding, to get into the trendy emisssions trading market. It was sexy and new. These failures and poor management must be avoided. The state public services cannot be relied upon to be innovative or at the cutting edge. The capping of a tonne at $A40.00 under the Australian government plan provides a valuable guide when looked at in terms of the context. Now we can wait for the bleating, misrepresentation, gaming and cries of foul and threats to emanate.



September 2008: If Kevin Rudd and the labor party in Australia's federal government go ahead with their planned carbon reduction scheme (with a target that is even remotely demanded by the environmenalists and proponents) scheduled for 2010 they will wreck Australia's economy and leave a mark more indelible than the recession Australia had to have under Paul Keating.

Brendan Nelson, may be a bumbling liberal leader but essentially he is right in trying to preach caution and block labor's moves. Rudd's team are the sheep, following the latest fad, at the front of the (crack pot) pack who will blindly run over the cliff taking the gullible voters with them. It is now imperative, as never before, that those with the capacity to resist, and block, engage Kevin Rudd and the labor government, the Greens and the greenies, and ideologs, in a war of attrition like no other ever seen in the nation before.

This is not about politics and simple resistance or activism. This is about survival economically and socially, defying the efforts, and actions, of people who colllectively have never created anything. They are theorists and academics. politicians of zeal and ideology whose beliefs, and passions, are extremely dangerous. Out to save a world that does not need saving. They are not experts, in any shape or form, and they have never accurately
predicted anything. They have at their disposal a public service, detached from reality, commissioned to serve. This public service is imbued with the code of serving the government of the day without question. They serve Ministers whose backgrounds, experiences and credentials, are not diverzse and congisant of the peril to whihc they are takin g us. We must draw on our own experiences and resources to resist, block and if necessary destroy their resolve and strategies. If the Rudd labor government spends a million or more on advertising their view points about the ETS (carbon reduction) then they should also fund counter opinions in the interest of the nation.





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AUSTRALIA - CARBON POLLUTION REDUCTION SCHEME GREEN PAPER


Department of Climate Change, Australian Government, The Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Green Paper canvasses options and preferred approaches on issues, such as which industry sectors will be covered and how Emission caps will be set. It also includes ways to address the impacts on Australian households, Emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries and other strongly affected sectors.
Click Here



HOODWINKING THE PUBLIC ON CLIMATE CHANGE


Received Email: July 22 July 2008: To Kevin R Beck

With the release of the green paper today you will no doubt pursue recalcitrants who back the doom philosophy of that evil element – carbon. The reference I gave you this morning presents a better approach to reducing the carbon excesses, viz. Ibbotson’s “Newcastle Protocol” instead of “Emissions Trading”, if in fact this is what you may want to do.

You will also realise now, (after reading selected parts of Ibbotson), that anthropogenic CO2 is not even significant in global warming, particularly when you put water vapour into the equation. The experts do not want to talk about this because it is uncontrollable, (non-anthropogenic), and there are no easily available government funds to support the academics and scientists in R&D in this field.

To give you a snapshot of the specious nature and uselessness of this whole exercise I suggest you read some of the papers of Gary Novack.
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The public is really being hoodwinked and the pollies are sure to strut their stuff in their inimitable and puerile fashion. Do your homework and your platform will be technically unassailable.... Keith



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July 16 2008 Kevin R Beck owner of the Mosaic Portal Web Network:

In Austraklia the debate about climate change has been hijacked by powerful interests that have access to media, resources, parliaments, bureaucracies, business, money and spin shapers. The Australian government lead by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has embraced Kyoto and ably assisted by his senior Minister for Water and Climate, Senator Penny Wong and Minister for the Environment, Peter Garrett, is engaged in not only shaping the policy by the Green Paper issued today but also the knowledge and awareness of the community. The Greens party, lead by the charismatic environmental campiagner, Senator Bob Brown have long championed the rod and birch approach to policy and the fantasy of ethereal solutions such as base load solar power. carbon sequestration is embraced as a panacea along with a myriad of other technological innovations among them clean coal. The Greens find the latter an anathema.

The labor Party has embraced an Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) with a carbon cap and a market permit system underpinned by regulation, control and government funds. If it gets up it will be unique in the world. However it will not be here in 2010. This adoption of an ETS market model is consistent with the economic theories, and writings, of senior labor figures such as Minister Lindsay Tanner. Treasurer Wayne Swan also embraces an ETS though it is unlikely that he has the same level of economic understanding as does Lindsay Tanner and Professor Garnaut, yet he manages the powerful Treasury portfolio. He is fond of homilies suhc as shop around for a dufferent bank when interest rates go up, buy home brand and spot specials in supermarkets and carry a calculator.

The Prime Minister engaged Professor Ross Garnaut, an economist and former diplomat, to research and develop a propositions and options recommendation paper. Modelling, and other core economic and social studies will be carried out by Treasury under his Ministry. Unfortunately the record of the federal Treasury on forecasting is not good. There will be modelling from the Australian Productivity Commission, the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and other interested agencies such as the Department of Environment and a myriad of external aacdemic, think tanks and industry interests as wel as the dooms dayers and freaks.

On the government side this will primarily be a manged public relations exercise with an ETS appended. It is not expected that the Opposition Leader in the Australian Parliament, Dr. Brendan Nelson, and the liberal and national party state leaders, will add all that much value. Dr. Nelson is absorbed with the minutae. he is focused on petrol and a $A0.05 cents reduction per litre, as his foundation argument and action plan. This would deliver the tremendous amount of $A2.00 to $A5.00 a tank depending on whether you are driving a two wheeled dinky thing or a full blown armoured cruiser. Some may buy the Prime Minister's subsidised hybrid car in 2010 which will be out of date or ignore his luxury tax on cliamte freindly cars and spend big. All of this in a society where a great number of people spend a $A100 per week on booze and can forego a drink to pay the igher price without Brendan's magic bullet $o.05cents per litre. In a society where even the lowest income households may have a plasma television and gadget household, and persoanl telecommunications device, rivalling their mortgage. All of this in a society of dodgy under funded public transport wheer it exists among other feats of mediocrity by state governments.

The two most referred authorities, in the Australian media, are Professor Ross Garnaut and Professor Warwick McKibbin. They are listed above in the source links. But what of
John Ibbotson, and the Lighthouses? John Ibbotson has written a rather layman's view of the whole issue of climate change proposing a radical, and far simpler, approach. There is no ETS in his proposition. His publication is "Planning Ahead for Future Generations". It proposes a Newcastle Protocol based on three core elements:
A greenhouse extraction tax at the point of mining
A World Energy Bank
A World energy Standards Body.

I personally do not believe that Australia will have a functional Emission Trading Scheme ready to go in 2010. The legislative drafters, and lawyers, are methodical, slow and the whole thing is very very complicated. It will be a voluminous set rivalling the Australian Taxation Acts. The politics is fraught with quicksand and bog holes. The vested interests are vast, the bureaucracy and the federation is cumbersome and fragmented with its own vested interests agendas, and ideologies, and the nay sayers and game players are well resourced and skilled at dissembling and barrier erection. There is no evidence that the Prime Minister's closest advisers in his office even know the identities of all of the game players, their motivations and capabilities.

The Liberal Party under its federal, and state leadership, has no discernible platform or coherent and consistent policy. Brendan Nelson will likely play devil's advocate, spoiler, sometimes ignorant, with disruption and short term reactionary tactics until stability is achieved after his removal as federal leader. The state liberal and national leaders will similarly assist. The minority Senators in the Australian parliament are not experienced in such complexities, are under resourced and yet will be able to exercise enormous influence since they may control the passage of legislation. Everything wil be refrred to committees in the Upper House Senate Chamber.

The Victorian Labor Party and government have a significant amount to risk and possibly lose with the bulk of energy being produced by brown coal mines and power stations and heavy manufacturing energy guzzlers such as aluminium plus Victorian Premier ohn Brumby's ill conceived salt water environmentally nasty, desalination plant. Then there is Premier Iemma's misfortune, and slide from power, trying to sell his state owned energy assets, in am ajor banking and redit crisis world. NSW has lots of black coal mines. In Queensland there are also lots of black coal mines. There are nasty gas conversion plants are over looked when proponents prattle on about using ever more natural gas for energy generation.

There is a jingle - song that goes "Life is but a dream ... sweet heart." (Kevin R Beck)





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World Climate Report
Basics of Climate Change from New Scientist
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Understanding Climate Science, Chapter 1: Schneider et al
Uncertainty and Climate Change, Chapter 2: Schneider et al
Beware of the Nonsense


Green Cities Launch Event:
A Primer on Climate Change Impacts and
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Small Business and Climate Change
World Changing - Change Your Thinking (Resources)
Earth Systems Engineering and Management, Chapter 3: Schneider et al
Source Watch - Climate Change
Shell - Climate Change Blog
BBC - Climate Change in Depth
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Real Climate - Climate Scientists' Blog
The Heat Is OnLine
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Australian National Library catalogue references (set 1 - Intergovernmental )
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Climate Science watch
The Alternative Views to Populism
About Climate Change and Global Warming
Greenhouse and Global Change - Worldwide Directory
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Euractiv - Europe Climate Change Policy
Global Warming
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Clean Coal and Other Greenhouse Myths
Nuclear Report (Austria)
World Watch
Encyclopedia of climate and weather, Professor Schneider
The Genesis Strategy, Professor Schneider
The Coevolution of Climate and Life
The Greenhouse Century
Laboratory earth, the Planetary Gamble
Climate 2001 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Guidance Paper on Key Uncertainties
Publications of Professor Schneider
Garnaut Climate Change Review, Australia
The economics of climate change: An examination of the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid proposal for a carbon price for Australia
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KEVINRBECK commentary writings Australian Political: Click on image




Are the experts expert?


Experts are everywhere. Governments and corporations use them, the media, public and private entities. They inhabit universities. They inhabit disciplines. There are a number of prime experts that are driving government policy, thinking and response. Governmment economists (in Treasury and in Finance and Administration) and theorists engaged in climate change and carbon trading. So are they really expert? Philip Tetlock, a psychologist with a Phd from Yale has spent much of his time at the Universities of California, Berkely and Ohio. What makes him unique in the world of academic research is that he has produced a seminal and intensive study of the world of experts, of all types, and assessed whether they are any better at their activity than a novice such as me (KEVINRBECK). Philip has published his research in "Expert Political Judgement: How good is it? How can we know? (Princeton University Press).

His research translates to any society and this case I have compared it to how things work in Australia. The Australian Financial Review published an excellent synopsis (Friday 25 November, 2005, Review 3) of his research in an article written by Paul Monk, who is co-founder of
Austhink Consulting and author of "Thunder from the silent zone: rethinking China". Tetlock's work can be applied to the unflinching claims of the Howard government for its Workplace Relations Reforms, justification of war in Iraq, economic policy, investment in R&D and other pet projects and its ideological pursuit of dross. Similarly it can be used to debunk economic forecasts, political analysis and a host of other "crystal ball" style pronouncements that are used to sell services, dress up stories and drive home points. The research exposes the human tendency to rely on an expert, particularly one with a job that suits and a title to go without. The history of their performance and other traits are never considered nor remembered. He says that "experts are attempting to do with confidence what they demonstrably cannot do very well at all. They make lots of money and kudos from dubious forecasts without ultimate accountability. They are well suited to being politicians particularly Ministers in Australia's governments and consultants and advisers in Australia's top tier companies and public sector enterprises.

They are partisan, rarely admit error or they will give a dozen explanations as to how they got it wrong. Governments, shareholders and businesses lose billions year after year but continue to draw on their services. Monk quotes Tetlock, "we keep running into ideological impasses rooted in each side insisting on being the only judge of its own beliefs and forecasts". Does that have resonance, or sound familiar, in your workplace, communities, in political rhetoric and justification, on television and everywhere? Tetlock found that experts on their home turf made neither better-calibrated nor more discriminating forecasts than did dilettante trespassers. Monk says that Telock found that it made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience in their chosen line of work.

There was no correlation between ideology and accuracy of judgement or precision of forecasting. The experts tended not to adjust their beliefs when the evidence came in but to rationalise or outright deny their errors. Is that familiar too? Seems our politicians have this gene. The dominant danger he concluded was hubris closed mindedness, dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly. Resistance is fierce particularly from those with grand reputations but humble track records.

Tetlock did find that exacting research using scientific and other proven techniques based on solid empirical evidence and statistical analysis and checking, using large volumes of data and input over time did impact on the accuracy and quality. This is the
intrinsic objective of the design of the Mosaic Portal.


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