Kevin Beck's Australian Federal Election 2013


Australian Labor Party will win only 46-55 seats
in the House of Representatives

The Australian Senate? Well that is very interesting.

Hidden gems lie behind all the images

Some in ALP driven to tears



It all ends in tears

Senate is most interesting as micro parties alter the landscape and the parliamentary make up.

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Final concert
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Time to say goodbye

Australia's Scuzzy Federal Election of 2013

No winners

"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."- Voltaire - [Fransois Marie Arouet] (1694-1778)

"Few are willing to brave the disapproval of their fellows, the censure of the colleagues, the wrath of their society. Moral courage is a rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is the one essential, vital quality for those who seek to change a world that yields most painfully to change. Each time a person stands up for an idea, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, (s)he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope, and crossing each other from a million different centers of energy and daring, those ripples build a current that can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance." -- Robert F. Kennedy

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August 19, 2013: The Rudd campaign is faltering badly. Whilst Mr KRudd may out a brave face on it most of the time on occasions he appears to be sulking. One can only imagine the risks inherent in holding onesself out as a one man saviour of a decrepit political party and the stresses that brings. If, as I predict labor wins only 45 - 50 seats, then Kevin Rudd will have failed and those who backed him will have effectively consigned the federal party to some period of extensive navel gazing.

Desperately the Labor television, and radio, commercials move into the realm of misleading but then politics is all about lies and misrepresentation. What is strange is the see saw effects of human bhaviour where logic (built up over time) is suspeneed in favour of gut feeling. Mr Rudd seems to run on gut feeling and the electorate does too in many ways. The facts of waste, incompetence and putting swelf interest first may be irrelevant when the election outcome comes down to a few thousand votes and a handful of electoral seats. The masses are not winners here, under our system, just a handful of the privileged.

Click: My original (May 2013) prediction
move the slide to the right for a 6.6% swing
2PP 56.5%

Click: with slide set at 6.6%
look at seat by seat prediction


Politics is all about factions, patronage and relationships. Tony Abbott is leader of the Australian Liberal Party due solely to the internal machinations, and alliances, arising from these impositions. If Malcolm Turnbull were to become leader the internal dynamics, and the relationships, would change and the people who might become Ministers under either one will vary quite significantly. We have seen this on display with the Australian Labor Party and the JGillard and KRudd theatrics and soap opera. Logic is secondary, if it impacts at all, to these human dynamics. Even though Malcolm Turnbull is way more popular than Tony Abbott personal interest and gain over rides the logic of winning government.

The Australian Labor Government 2006 - 2013 has a history of poor performance, management and waste in the billions of dollars but Australian governments, and Australian media, have reduced the term "billion" to an inconsequential, meaningless and hardly interesting number for the voting population. The term billion is thrown around like confetti and apparently one can turn a multi billion dollar catastrophe into a surplus in the twinkle of an eye.

Personality politics and presidential style rule. Australia's two major parties both are engaged in puerile "pissing contests" like little boys in the toilet block. This is most apparent with regard to the asylum seeker issue and the boats. So obessed are the senior members of the Liberal and Labor Parties, and their strategists, with this issue as the election trigger that they are willing to forego everything else. They are blind, and oblivious, to what is happening in reality land.

Policy creation, and debate, should be solid around economy, tax and employment reforms but these are too hard. The media plays a role in manipulation and dumbing down of our political system. The media would rather pontificate, and dribble, about gladiatorial, and adversarial, nothingness than have to work hard thinking about, and analysing, policy. Many journalists in Australia may be hard pressed to do it, the shock jocks on radio would be all at sea. So how does this alter my perceptions and predictions? Quite dramatically. The liberals still win but they forego up to 15 seats. So to maintain Mr Abbott's leadership, and his coterie of supporter's interests, about fifteen, to eighteen, people's political aspirations are scarificed on the altar of factional politics.

Click: August 2013 prediction
move the slide to the right for a 3.6% swing

Click: with slide set at 3.6%
look at seat by seat prediction

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