AUSTRALIA: CARBON, WATER, CLIMATE, GREENHOUSE, POLICIES, TAXES, DEBATES, EMMISSIONS TRADING


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The Australian labor Government has a Climate Change Commissioner, Tim Flannery
What do his public pronouncements advise us?


"How is it that Tim Flannery could have got it so spectacularly wrong? The most obvious factor could well be Flannery’s lack of background in a climate science. He is an academic, however his background is mammalogy – he studied the evolution of mammals." (source of extract: "Climate and floods: Flannery is no expert, but neither are the experts", TheConversation.edu.au, 6 March 2012)

"Weather forecasting is obviously not Professor Tim Flannery’s forte, Daily Telegraph March 01, 2012"

METEOROLOGISTS suggested Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery leave weather forecasting to them as the big wet defies his prediction rain would become scarce. In 2007 Professor Flannery said Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane were in urgent need of desalination plants. Four years on, Warragamba Dam is on the verge of overflowing and Brisbane last year endured the worst flooding in almost four decades. After yesterday discovering Professor Flannery is not a meteorologist, the Weather Channel’s meteorologists said it was probably best he left the forecasting to them. (Source of extract: Weather forecasting is obviously not Professor Tim Flannery’s forte March 1, 2012, An Honest Climate Debate, World Press.com)

" Tim Flannery, Julia Gillard's hand-picked Climate Change Commissioner, or preacher-in-chief, if you prefer.

Appointed by Climate Change Minister Greg Combet to his $3,000 per week, part-time job in February, Flannery is tasked with turning around the climate change debate for the minority Labor administration. His comments, made in a 2004 interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, are just one indicator of the depth of Flannery's quasi-religious fervour for climate change, not to mention his exaggerated sense of self-importance. Many commentators have noted the extensive use of quasi-religious language by climate activists. Followers of the hypothesis that man is responsible for so-called dangerous climate change are referred to as ‘believers' whilst doubters are often labelled ‘deniers,' ‘sceptics' and even ‘heretics.'.... (Source: August 7, 2011 Tim Flannery: climate prophet, Menzies House Contributor (and Q&A Superstar!) James Paterson writes on the background and failed predictions of 'climate prophet' Tim Flannary: Menzies House.com.au)

"In 2005, Flannery predicted Sydney’s dams could be dry in as little as two years because global warming was drying up the rains, leaving the city “facing extreme difficulties with water”. Check Sydney’s dam levels today: 73 per cent. Hmm. Not a good start. In 2008, Flannery said: “The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009.” Check Adelaide’s water storage levels today: 77 per cent. In 2007, Flannery predicted cities such as Brisbane would never again have dam-filling rains, as global warming had caused “a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas” and made the soil too hot, “so even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems ... “. Check the Murray-Darling system today: in flood. Check Brisbane’s dam levels: 100 per cent full.....

In 2007, he warned that “the social licence of coal to operate is rapidly being withdrawn globally” by governments worried by the warming allegedly caused by burning the stuff. We should switch to “green” power instead, said Flannery, who recommended geothermal - pumping water on to hot rocks deep underground to create steam. “There are hot rocks in South Australia that potentially have enough embedded energy in them to run Australia’s economy for the best part of a century,” he said. “The technology to extract that energy and turn it into electricity is relatively straightforward.” Flannery repeatedly promoted this “straightforward” technology, and in 2009, the Rudd government awarded $90 million to Geodynamics to build a geothermal power plant in the Cooper Basin, the very area Flannery recommended. Coincidentally, Flannery has for years been a Geodynamics shareholder, a vested interest he sometimes declares. Time to check on how that business tip went. Answer: erk. The technology Flannery said was “relatively straighforward” wasn’t. One of Geodynamics’ five wells at Innamincka collapsed in an explosion that damaged two others. All had to be plugged with cement. The project has now been hit by the kind of floods Flannery didn’t predict in a warming world, with Geodynamics announcing work had been further “delayed following extensive local rainfall in the Cooper Basin region”. The technological and financing difficulties mean there is no certainty now that a commercial-scale plant will ever get built, let alone prove viable, so it’s no surprise the company’s share price has almost halved in four months. (Source of extracts: Column - Would you buy another scare from drenched Flannery? Andrew Bolt, Melbourne Herald Sun, February 12, 2011)

" First, here's Flannery on the green faith that seems to drive his apocalyptic preaching.

"I think that within this century the concept of the strong Gaia will actually become physically manifest. I do think that the Gaia of the Ancient Greeks, where they believed the earth was effectively one whole and perfect living creature, that doesn't exist yet, but it will exist in future ... "We can nudge (the Earth's systems) and we can foresee danger. Once that occurs, then the Gaia of the Ancient Greeks really will exist. This planet, this Gaia, will have acquired a brain and a nervous system. That will make it act as a living animal ... " (ABC radio, 2010) And here are some of Flannery's scares:

"Picture an eight-storey building by a beach, then imagine waves lapping its roof." (The Age, 2006)

In fact, the seas have risen 20cm at most in a century, and this slow rise paused two years ago. "Anyone with a coastal view from their bedroom window, or their kitchen window, or wherever, is likely to lose their house as a result of that change, so anywhere, any coastal cities, coastal areas, are in grave danger." (WWF interview, 2007) In fact, in that same year Flannery bought an absolute waterfront home on the banks of estuarine Hawkesbury River.

"I think there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century's first ghost metropolis. Its whole primary production is in dire straits." (The Sydney Morning Herald, 2004) In fact, Western Australia has just had a record wheat crop, and Perth is fine.

"The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009." (Jetstar magazine, 2008) In fact, Adelaide's water storages are 53 per cent full.

"(Sydney's) Warragamba Dam is never again going to be full unless there is a freak period of high rainfall unlikely to be sustained. (SMH, 2007) In fact, after four years of good rain since, the dam this year filled completely.

"In Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months ... dams no longer fill even when it does rain." (New Scientist, 2007) In fact, Sydney's dams are 95 per cent full and Brisbane's 88. "Even the rain that falls isn't actually going to fill our dams and river systems." (ABC, 2007)

"The change is permanent. I believe the first thing Australians need to do is to stop worrying about 'the drought' - which is transient - and start talking about the new climate." (New Scientist, 2007) In fact, Australia has just had its wettest two years on record.

"If you look at the data for the decay of the Arctic ice cap for example, that is just moving so quickly now ... "People are saying, you know, that instead of the ice cap lasting a century, that maybe in five years there'll be no Arctic ice cap." (ABC, 2008) In fact, there is today more Arctic ice than at this time in 2008.

"We've had an increase in the number of intense cyclones around the world and seen an increase in the number of cyclones." (ABC, 2005) In fact, there's been no increase in the number of cyclones or total cyclone energy. (Source: Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun, Melbourne Australia, Facts are water under the bridge Herald Sun April 02, 2012)

"The recent revelation that new Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery has a contract with Meat and Livestock Australia shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody who read his 2008 Quarterly Essay Now or Never: A sustainable future for Australia.... But I think both the relationship and the essay demonstrate that Flannery is not the right person for the job. (Source of extract: Geoff Russell, "Meat: Why Tim Flannery is wrong", ThePunch.com.au, March 9, 2012)


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PRIME MINISTER GILLARD AND MINISTER COMBET BOTH NEED A REALITY CHECK

There is detachment from reality across the carbon tax debate. Celebrities have eben hired by external activists to spin the government's policies. Where did the activists get the funds? Some say GetUp funded the campaign. Short on the necessary talent for deep debate about her government's policies, Ms Julia Gillard has a propensity for stalling, ambiguity and generalities, using her feminine charm and charisma when all else fails. No doubt that the labor government welcomes this short campaign. It will of course back fire on the organisers. A waste of money sadly.

This is what she said about the
carbon tax on the ABC Q&A programme (March 14, 2011)- the consumer is there in the shop with their compensation in hand and they can decide to buy a product that is from a major polluter or one that is made from renewable energy. Is she serious?

The majority of electricity comes from coal and almost eveything therefore has a component of carbon in its creation. Or are we to buy imported products which are also from carbon? In another reply, regarding uranium - nuclear policy she said that the labor party policy was not to use nuclear, because Australia had an abundance of wind, solar, tidal and other renewables refusing to say that coal was the major source of fuel. Gillard will put her own ideology ahead of reality and the nation and as such Ms Gillard is unsuitable to be Prime Minister. The alternative Tony Abbott, is a desert, seemingly incapable of any new ideas, but he may be less dangerous.

Federal labor Minister Greg Combet aims to beat the Opposition leader Tony Abbott in the debate about a carbon tax. He continually reasserts, that the government is wholy committed to the implementation of a carbon price in 2012. Who does Mr Combet think are the real, and most qualified and skilled,
opponents? The Opposition leader Mr. Tony Abbott has no demonstrated underunderstanding of the complex world of energy. His public iterations are whatever he thinks will create the greatest media interest and coverage. This man is a lightwieght when it comes to policy visoon and innovation. For that matter few in the Australian parliament do. Mr. Abbott parrots one line media grabs over and over ad nauseum. The debate offerred by our legislators is shallow, short on facts and too often lies and misrepresentations.

Heather Ridout, champion of Australian big business joined the labor circle of the power collective when Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister. She has recently separated herself from the labor fold. Ms Ridout may not like being associated with ideologs, mediocrity and in certain cases vandals. Then off course there are those who refuse to admit
...click. The Australian public generally is lazy, in educating itself as to detail, and will not bother to inform themselves regarding the actual role of carbon and climate in our environment and on our planet, preferring to embrace someone else's theories, arguments and logic. These may be the commercial radio shock jocks, average commentators in the press, and crude (current affairs) program presenters of rubbish content on commercial television. The ABC (Australia's public broadcaster) apaers ot be highly partisan in its contribution whilst trying to pretend that it is neutral. The Q&A (ABC) programme audience is stacked to one side of politics and ideological social thinking. A token representative (of the skeptics and so called deniers)is included in the panel on The Insiders, political current affairs programme on Sunday morning 9am and one weekday programme, Counter Point, at 4pm on ABC Radio National is their shrewish approach to balance. The Age Newspaper, in Melbourne, looks as if it lost its jounalistic credibility, and analysis skills, years ago. It is a pseudo green left environmental rag, using old print technology and layout methods. It is a cluttered, nasty looking, unwieldy piece of black ink leaving a smudge on one's hands. The Australian newspaper, far superior in layout presentation and breadth of coverage, is biased, or so it seems, against the labor Rudd - Gillard government perhaps diminishing its credibility. The tabloid press, such as the Brisbane Courier Mail, Sydney's Daily Telegraph and Melbourne's Herald Sun are not known for their lengthy analysis (except for the Andrew Bolt columns) more like print with pictures, for the attention deficit. The main newspapers in the rest of the country, particularly the Northern Territory publication, are not worth a reference in their failure to challenge, analyse and lead community thinking.

Overall the Australian media is lazy, and in many incompetent, its quality of writing is random, often lacking substance, it plageurises material from the Internet and it relies for much of its content on someone else's efforts. This mediocrity, in most of the nation's media, has come about under the management, and control, of people who are not journalistsa nd not newspaper veterans. They lack vision and a passion for truth, and investigative, journalism. Free to air television stations, in Australia, are unilluminating, clone like enterprises buying cheap American product and presenting shallow, and often grubby, reality television. One exception being the other Australian public broadcsater, SBS. But it is starved of cash by its owner. The Australian media does not report on, or analyse, government legislation and political party policy in any depth. Editors, and programme content managers and presenters, parrot over, and over, their fantasies and the leming chant of the moment e.g. rifts between Rudd and Gillard, the gladiatorial nature of politics, the perceived rifts between members of the coalition, reporting the latest (manipulated) political poll which asked the views of a few hundred intellectually challenged people on the street. The Australian media lets the nation down.

The price of carbon, necessary to attract investment in pollution reduction and renewable energy has to be about $A70.00 to $80.00 per tonne. Such a rate would bankrupt the economy and the nation. The generalist sweeping mumbling (permeated with sham giggling when she has no idea and needs to but time) that emanates from Ms Gillard, and the climate change and carbon tax, proponents about business wanting certainty and the warming of the planet by humanity and the other theories they trot out are not challenged in any meaningful way.

Only one media commentator stands out from the crowd - Andrew Bolt. He continually challemges the stupidity, adherence to ideology, misrepresentation, distortion and lies put about by the government and sycophantic bureaucracy. To the rat bag chorus one can add the Greens party, the environmentalists and the pin up academic experts who, despite getting it wrong constantly, still hold credibility. The government's principle climate change commissioner Tim Flannery says that if every carbon polluting enterprise and all else was closed down it would take hundreds or thousands of years for the planet to come back to normal. What is normal? Andrew Bolt berates the scientific community, which is locked into its untenable position and is too ashamed to recant, He berates the opportunistic corporate types who want to create new trading regimes, like the national electricity market gamblers who bet on the price of electricity, In an emissions trading scheme we can expect that they will game the system and be the only winners.

Federal Labor, and its Prime Minister and Ministers, have a tin ear, and can look quite incompetent and ignorant. gathering int Mr. Combet, Ms. Gillard and the senior leadership of the labor party are full of their own self and ego. Inexperienced, refusing to engage and debate their critics, they are labor party political career politician. They press on, despite the counter arguments and the
imprecise nature of the science. There is no dramatic, and threatening, correlation between CO2 and climate change. Gillard's labor, along with labor state governments, are spending billions driven by ideological blind faith and their own intuition and righteousness. Australia is in the grip of nanny state politics and governance.

Industry will, wher it can, pass the carbon tax through to the consumer and will not lower any emissions or retool. Under Australian labor's policy the nation will suffer cost imposts, and a decline in the national economy, and lifestyle, experience very large rises in energy prices around of 300% or more and subsequent rises in food, tranpsort, utilities and other products and services. Manufacturing will be crippled. This happens at $A20 per tonne. If we move to an Emissions Trading Scheme then life will become a struggle ("life was not meant to be easy" said former Prime Minister, Malcolm Fraser) and many businesses will be bankrupted or have millions whiped off their earnings before interest and taxes.

After all of this has come to pass, no politician (labor, green or conservative) will ever held accountable, or responsible, or have to pay the price for their folly. They will be on indexed public pensions and benefits. There can not be enough compensation to offset the vandalism of the Julia Gillard labor government. (Kevin R Beck, Vandals in Australia's Governments, 2011)



There is no correlation between CO2 and Climate Change


"It is sometimes claimed without justification that existing renewable energy sources -- such as wind, solar or biomass -- are not capable of substituting for coal-fired power stations. However, a recent set of studies for Australia and its states demonstrates the contrary." Source: Published in Australasian Science, Volume 26, No. 4, 36-38 (May 2005)"How to reduce CO2 emissions by 50%".... .. click here


YEARS END 2010: GOODBYE THE LUCKY COUNTRY - Australia progresses towards a gas driven energy supply and in doing so rushes donw a road of spiralling energy cost and stupid policy

In 2011, before the Senate changes, the independents need to force a no confidence vote on Gillard and the federal labor government or risk our economic future.


TIME APPROACHES WHEN GILLARD, AND COHORTS THE GREENS, MUST GO


The Australian federal governments of Kevin Rudd, and Julia Gillard, along with their confidante party apparatchiks and key advisers are, to my mind, only interested in their beliefs, ideologies, perceived talents and capacities. They are not willing to listen to anybody who challenges them, they resort to ridicule and the "frumpy, bombastic attitude of Australia's first female Prime Minister, demeans her achievement of getting there. She has not exhibited the necessary qualities of true leadership, paling against the iconic labor party reformers, Bob Hawke and Paul Keating. Ms Gillard showed her naivity when she cut a deal with the Greens condemning labor, and the nation, to mediocrity in pursuit of her own, and her colleagues interests, demonstrating that she has little regard for the public interest. On the final day of the parliamentary sitting she indulged herself in ranting vitriole, like some shrew. Vile spitting words were thrown at the leader of the opposition. Labor has no quality, and class, under the leadership of Ms Julia Gillard.

These two labor governments, again to my mind, and looking at the assembled evidence, are the worst performing administrations in Australian governments' collective history. They are monumental failures, extrordinary waste and arrogant denial in the face of fact after fact. This takes spin and stupidity into a new realm of ignorance. poor administration and myopic self indulgence.
Rudd, Gillard, Swan, Wong, Garrett and Combet have clearly shown that they have a minimal grasp of the complex issues that underpin energy supply, efficiency and reliability and the contribution (negative or positive) to the economy. Labor's approach to water security is as blind to reality and depth of detail and impacts.

Dumb, and dumber every day, the collective climate change membership of the federal parliament, and the rat bag (those who are over zealaous) environmental proponents, are arguing gas as base load supply or wind, or solar, and in doing so they are going to well and truly wreck the Australian economy. It would be far better to have Martin Ferguson in charge of a multi-policy portfolio set, with Simon Crean, than the collective mediocrity of Rudd, Gillard et al. If the Australian population remains disengaged they can expect their energy bills to sky rocket by 600, 1000 and even 3000% innthose states where the environmentalists hold sway. They can expect to lose their livelihoods and ultimately end up the losers for having allowed thos lot to remain in federal parliament.


state government (labor) counterparts, refuse to acknowledge or reply to correspondence, engage in open, and deliberative debate, preferring managed spin, lies and commivances. Julia Gillard offers platitudes, and motherhood, statements splattered with vitriolic rants. There is no open and interactive engagment between Gillard, her office, her Department and the Australian people. The labor party chooses who it will engage with anmd whom it will let in to the debate. One only has to look at the Murray Barling Basin fiasco to see how labor, and its independent appointed Authority people, engage with communities.

She demonstrates a closed mind having formed her opinions about climate change with no apparent deep study, and understanding, of the veracity of the facts presented to her. One may ask is Ms Gillard gullible or not that bright?


"Basin bid to calm fury, Michelle Grattan, October 18, 2010, Murray-Darling Basinenvironment.gov.au/water, Have Your Say on Planning Water For the Future. THE embattled Murray-Darling Basin Authority has responded to regional fury at its proposed hefty water cuts by ordering a study of the social and economic effects on communities. As the Gillard government and the authority run for cover, this will traverse similar ground to the parliamentary inquiry announced last week, chaired by independent Tony Windsor. .... Water Minister Tony Burke distanced himself from the authority's initial proposals ....Since the authority's guide for a plan for the basin was released on October 8, thousands of farmers have expressed outrage in meetings in the basin. (Source:Michelle Grattan, The Age Melbourne, October 18, 2010)

I believe that a significant number of labor party Ministers, in governments across Australia and their advisers, and staff are ignorant, and amateurish. THey are very dangerous in government. I think that the federal Labor government needs to be put down in 2011 least the natiion suffers any more devastating policy implementation mishaps. 9Kevin R Beck, Melbourne Australia)






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CLIMATE CHANGE AND CARBON PRICING TAXES
COMMENTARY by KEVIN R BECK, Melbourne, Australia


Only people who have never worked in the genration side of the energy industry would prpose to underpin the base load of a nation's electricity supply using gas fired power stations. These people are ignorant and must be stopped before they wreak major damage on the Australian economy and on peoples' household budgets. (Kevin R Beck, December 2010, "The Road to Economic Destruction, under Julia Gillard and Australian Labor Party Guidance."

AUSTRALIAN CARBON DEBATE AND THE GILLARD, AND RUDD, LABOR GOVERNMENT FOLLY

Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard has expressed her belief in climate change. Big deal so have most of the residents of the planet. That does mean she has any idea of what to do or any knowledge and experience. So how does Hal Lewis' resignation place her belief into perspective? As such she is a danger in the role of Prime Minister.


Sent: Friday, 08 October 2010 17:19 Hal Lewis

From: Hal Lewis, University of California, Santa Barbara

To: Curtis G. Callan, Jr., Princeton University, President of the American Physical Society

6 October 2010

Dear Curt:

When I first joined the American Physical Society sixty-seven years ago it was much smaller, much gentler, and as yet uncorrupted by the money flood (a threat against which Dwight Eisenhower warned a half-century ago).

Indeed, the choice of physics as a profession was then a guarantor of a life of poverty and abstinence—it was World War II that changed all that. The prospect of worldly gain drove few physicists. As recently as thirty-five years ago, when I chaired the first APS study of a contentious social/scientific issue, The Reactor Safety Study, though there were zealots aplenty on the outside there was no hint of inordinate pressure on us as physicists. We were therefore able to produce what I believe was and is an honest appraisal of the situation at that time. We were further enabled by the presence of an oversight committee consisting of Pief Panofsky, Vicki Weisskopf, and Hans Bethe, all towering physicists beyond reproach. I was proud of what we did in a charged atmosphere. In the end the oversight committee, in its report to the APS President, noted the complete independence in which we did the job, and predicted that the report would be attacked from both sides. What greater tribute could there be?

How different it is now. The giants no longer walk the earth, and the money flood has become the raison d’être of much physics research, the vital sustenance of much more, and it provides the support for untold numbers of professional jobs. For reasons that will soon become clear my former pride at being an APS Fellow all these years has been turned into shame, and I am forced, with no pleasure at all, to offer you my resignation from the Society.

It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (Montford’s book organizes the facts very well.) I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.

So what has the APS, as an organization, done in the face of this challenge? It has accepted the corruption as the norm, and gone along with it. For example: 1. About a year ago a few of us sent an e-mail on the subject to a fraction of the membership. APS ignored the issues, but the then President immediately launched a hostile investigation of where we got the e-mail addresses. In its better days, APS used to encourage discussion of important issues, and indeed the Constitution cites that as its principal purpose. No more. Everything that has been done in the last year has been designed to silence debate

2. The appallingly tendentious APS statement on Climate Change was apparently written in a hurry by a few people over lunch, and is certainly not representative of the talents of APS members as I have long known them. So a few of us petitioned the Council to reconsider it. One of the outstanding marks of (in)distinction in the Statement was the poison word incontrovertible, which describes few items in physics, certainly not this one. In response APS appointed a secret committee that never met, never troubled to speak to any skeptics, yet endorsed the Statement in its entirety. (They did admit that the tone was a bit strong, but amazingly kept the poison word incontrovertible to describe the evidence, a position supported by no one.) In the end, the Council kept the original statement, word for word, but approved a far longer “explanatory” screed, admitting that there were uncertainties, but brushing them aside to give blanket approval to the original. The original Statement, which still stands as the APS position, also contains what I consider pompous and asinine advice to all world governments, as if the APS were master of the universe. It is not, and I am embarrassed that our leaders seem to think it is. This is not fun and games, these are serious matters involving vast fractions of our national substance, and the reputation of the Society as a scientific society is at stake.

3. In the interim the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity. Effect on the APS position: none. None at all. This is not science; other forces are at work. 4. So a few of us tried to bring science into the act (that is, after all, the alleged and historic purpose of APS), and collected the necessary 200+ signatures to bring to the Council a proposal for a Topical Group on Climate Science, thinking that open discussion of the scientific issues, in the best tradition of physics, would be beneficial to all, and also a contribution to the nation. I might note that it was not easy to collect the signatures, since you denied us the use of the APS membership list. We conformed in every way with the requirements of the APS Constitution, and described in great detail what we had in mind—simply to bring the subject into the open.

5. To our amazement, Constitution be damned, you declined to accept our petition, but instead used your own control of the mailing list to run a poll on the members’ interest in a TG on Climate and the Environment. You did ask the members if they would sign a petition to form a TG on your yet-to-be-defined subject, but provided no petition, and got lots of affirmative responses. (If you had asked about sex you would have gotten more expressions of interest.) There was of course no such petition or proposal, and you have now dropped the Environment part, so the whole matter is moot. (Any lawyer will tell you that you cannot collect signatures on a vague petition, and then fill in whatever you like.) The entire purpose of this exercise was to avoid your constitutional responsibility to take our petition to the Council.

6. As of now you have formed still another secret and stacked committee to organize your own TG, simply ignoring our lawful petition. APS management has gamed the problem from the beginning, to suppress serious conversation about the merits of the climate change claims. Do you wonder that I have lost confidence in the organization? I do feel the need to add one note, and this is conjecture, since it is always risky to discuss other people’s motives. This scheming at APS HQ is so bizarre that there cannot be a simple explanation for it. Some have held that the physicists of today are not as smart as they used to be, but I don’t think that is an issue. I think it is the money, exactly what Eisenhower warned about a half-century ago. There are indeed trillions of dollars involved, to say nothing of the fame and glory (and frequent trips to exotic islands) that go with being a member of the club. Your own Physics Department (of which you are chairman) would lose millions a year if the global warming bubble burst. When Penn State absolved Mike Mann of wrongdoing, and the University of East Anglia did the same for Phil Jones, they cannot have been unaware of the financial penalty for doing otherwise. As the old saying goes, you don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Since I am no philosopher, I’m not going to explore at just which point enlightened self-interest crosses the line into corruption, but a careful reading of the ClimateGate releases makes it clear that this is not an academic question. I want no part of it, so please accept my resignation. APS no longer represents me, but I hope we are still friends.

Hal

Harold Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, former Chairman; Former member Defense Science Board, Chairman of Technology panel; Chairman DSB study on Nuclear Winter; Former member Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards; Former member, President’s Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee; Chairman APS study on Nuclear Reactor Safety Chairman Risk Assessment Review Group; Co-founder and former Chairman of JASON; Former member USAF Scientific Advisory Board; Served in US Navy in WW II;

books: Technological Risk (about, surprise, technological risk) and Why Flip a Coin (about decision making)



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CARBON MARKET AND PRICES


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AUSTRALIANS - GET READY FOR MASSIVE PRICE HIKES, AND SHORTAGES ON WATER, ELECRICITY, GAS, PETROL, OIL AND FOOD 2010 - 2013


The federal labor government in Australia, the Greens, independents and some in the liberal party, along with a bunch of economists, academics and true believers in climate change, want a price placed on carbon, as soon as practiaclly possible. It is likely that Ms Gillard will dissemble and ring her hands, since she has not demonstrated a capacity for taking risks. Nor will she likely make a decision that might make her responsible and accountable. She has to date assiduoulsy avoided accountability. The fine balance of the Australian parliament is an added disincentive to action.

Federal Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott opposes a carbon price. Rather than articulate the reasons with depth, and clarity, Mr Abbott prefers slogans, and sound bites - big new tax. His arguments usualy deteriorate the longer he is being questioned and examined.

I tend to think that Mr Abbott does not do his homework, and actually has little personal knowledge, and ideas, about carbon and the methodologies for pricing it and the justification. However unlike Ms Gillard, Mr Abbott takes risks, and his record is one of doing so without demonstrating he knows the facts or the likely outcomes of his actions. As a former federal Minister he showed us that statistics are his thing and in the carbon world they are as clear as mud.

The Greens are idologically driven. They should be viewed with scepticism. They have a history of choosing what best justifies their ideological position and their decisions, rather than examine the for and against with pragmatic reasoning. This will be a significant factor when they take their Senate seats in the federal parliament in mid 2011. The lone Green representative in the federal House of Representatives, Adam Bandt, does not have the support resources to enable him to examine all the material he will be given and the extensive legislative agenda. Tony Windsor, Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie (independents) will most likely turn to trusted advisers in their electorates, or the extra staff they have been given by the Prime Minister, for analysis, advice. Looking at their advisory networks, and sources of information, this could be parlous. They need to build external sources of even advice and counsel.

Carbon is more complex than the National Broadband Network (NBN) and one only has to look at the NBN debate, and implementation, to see the peurile, and shallow, nature of the mechanics of the parliament's examination of policy, and decision making, and the haphazard approach to significant issues in Australia's economy and society.


METHODOLOGIES FOR CALCULATING A PRICE FOR CARBON


Carbon pricing  mechanisms can take many   forms such as a market price per tonne  of  carbon  in   the  traded sectors  in  any Trading  Scheme regime, prices  applied  by   Governments via taxation,  or  “shadow”  prices applied  by  Governments in  policies. It is the latter that the Australian federal labor government appears to be focused on is focused on. The Prime Minister believes in Climate Change indicating she is prone to herd mentality rather than independemt personal analysis. One of the issues to consider that herd mentalities are common. They rely upon peer and hierarchical systems of legitimacy. One or two senior members of the peer group create the argument and justification and the rest follow because to be left out is to risk alienation rom their own sphere of comfort, employment and community.

Let's be clear on the reason that Ms Gillard is proposing a price on carbon. The  purpose  of  carbon  pricing is to help deliver the   Government’s policy  goals on  climate  change. Nothing more. Despite the belief of the Greens, et al,  the  purpose  of  carbon pricing is not  primarily  to  “internalise  the  exte rnal costs”  of  carbon  emissions. Carbon  pricing is not  the  only  policy  tool  needed by governments. There  needs  to be  clarity  over the  different  type s of   carbon  pricing. What measures will the government choose?

Social  cost  methodology seeks to value the  costs to society  of a  tonne  of   additional  carbon  emissions in terms of money.  The discount factor used, for the value of moeny overtime, is critical. Too low and it makes the action immediately an imperative. That is how the Climate Change justification has been made. It uses a rate of between 1% and 2%, and a 50 - 200 year projection, to massively over state the costs of not doing something now. It is extraordinarily hard to value the fuuire and the nebulous assumed impacts. It is an economic fear factor that has bluffed and mislead policy makers.

Marginal abatement methodology assesses the  cost  of  cutting  carbon  emissions   by  an additional  tonne,   and   compares the  figure  derived from  this for  the  “cost”  of  the  carbon  emissions  with   other assumed impacts and outcomes. If innovation occurs, and this si waht the Grens and labor are banking on this methodology is flawed.

The market methodology or market price  is purpotedly the “real” one. Financiers  and  business  people like it and use it and it is claimed that this is the  one  which  genuinely  affects business  decisions.  The market assessment is so accuraate that it missed the looming global financial crisis, is truly a herd mentality methodoogy. The proponents will cliam that the  market price  relates to a  target that  has been set;  it  is an approach which  is in theory   quite compatible  with  carbon  budgets and the beliefs of the major members of the Common school of economics and business. It is the one that offers the best returns for the gamers, those who bet the market and for the banks and desk traders, who can create a whole new business as they have done fof energy trading in Australia. It enables them to slice and dice. Market price is not "real" it is a concoct of government policy. It is also relevant only to certain sectors of the economy and and  does  not  bear much relation  to  other  sectors such as transport  and households.  Laughably it is accepted because the others have failed or are believed to be highly flawed. So we settle for the one that seems to fit. It fits the government's budgets.

The government is faced with a real dilemma. It has to determine what is carbon intensive in a dispassionate fashion and cannot simply say, as Julia Gilllard has done, that the days of the carbon fired dirty power stations are over. This demonstrates the propensity for politicians to talk off the top of their heads. Instead Gillard now faces a harder and more accounatble delivering fate. She and her advisers and cabinet must determine the critical questions as to to define  the framework that states what is carbon intensive or  high  carbon,  and  at what levels  the government must set an effective  carbon  escalator without driving up the base price of energy intensive deliverables. Or, why the consumer may pay dearly if they get it wrong.

What should they do? Maybe leave carbon alone. It is overall harmless in the greater scheme of things and mostly beneficial to the planet. Not likely though. (Kevin R beck, Melbourne, Australia, October 2010)
 
 

WATER DEBATE AND PLAN - MURRAY DARLING BASIN FOOD BOWL
A POLITICAL PIPE DREAM OR A VERY DANGEROUS AUTHORITY?
The Murray darling basion Authority A Danger to Australia's Economy and the fabric of our society in the eastern states of Australia.


As governments, information sources, science and economy blossomed through the seventies and later, Australia's state governments largely remained in limbo (with the exception of the Hawke Keating economic reformist government at the federal level) never tackling the hard, and vexed, issue of water supply, and sustainable, practices, in one of the world's driest economies. State governments have not built any significant water catchments, and dams, for decades, failed to invest in water infrastructure, (except overly costly and moribund) desalination plants) and have allowed vested interests to take what limited water resources the nation has and use them as they see fit.

There is no adequate state, and national audit, of water resources, no consolidated public and private construction and useage data and the state of water infrastructure. We do not know the effects of the water table, underground and surface water interactions by region and state, and the impacts and effects on our economy, society and environment. The authorities have been derelict.

Today a "crisis" has been deliberately engineered by the dominant environmental interests, and jelly back politicians, to justify draconian action whilst seeking to insulate themselves from political accountability and responsibility. This avoidance is what created the Murray darling Basin Authority. It is now one of the most dangerous independent authiorities in Australia. The dseire of the Howard government to shed responsibility and accountability. Labor is now utilising the Authority similarly. Tony Burke regally says the decision is his. How magnanimous but that is not actually true. The Commonwealth has little influence other than setting the rules for the so called market operation. The states, infrastructure and water owners, are more powerful. The states have to approvea nd regulate the plans that are submitted under the Authorities umbrellas. Teh Authority's charter is focused totally on the environment. The legislators now see environment and economy as synonymous and homogenous with the environment taking precedence. They serve ideology not the voter and taxpayers of the nation.


Environmental considerations will take precedence over society and economy.


"The SDLs will take into account the best available science, and the ‘precautionary principle’. According to this principle, if there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent environmental degradation.... A central element of the Basin Plan is an environmental watering plan to restore and sustain the wetlands and other environmental assets of the Basin and to protect biodiversity dependent on the Basin water resources. This plan will safeguard existing environmental water, plan the recovery of additional water, and coordinate the use of environmental water across the Basin. The environmental watering plan will contain, in relation to the Basin:

• environmental objectives for water-dependent ecosystems

• targets to measure progress against these objectives

• a management framework for environmental water • the methods used to identify key environmental assets requiring water

• the principles and methods which will set the priorities for applying environmental water

• the principles to be applied in environmental watering. " (Source: The Basin Plan A Concept Statement, Developed by the Murray–Darling Basin Authority Published June 2009)

The Authority deals with the water management powers,water act, water trading and water market. One assumes that it has to negotiate with the states and the infrastructure operators acrediting the states' plans. The states are not known for their forward thinking, vision and national interest concerns. Moreso with their parochialism, self centred agendas and political interests including maintenance of power. The Commonwealth is a small player in the Australian water market trading. What is not clear is what regulatory powers will be imposed to deliver the objectives decided upon.

In October 2010 the Authority released its draft consultation paper. The hysteria that preceeded its release, the ramping up of fear by the media, pumping the stoty for its scare effects, and the claims by some spokespeople, in the affected rural areas, that there would be rioting in the streets demonstrates the immaturity that dogs clear, cool and rational debate, on major political, social and economic issues within Australia. State, and federal, governments, rather than managing and fostering the debate in the public interest facilitating everyone's input play politics, manipulate and spin the exercise to suit theirn own agendas and interests.

The federal Minister Tony Burke immediately rushed in and said there woild be "no compulsory acquisition of water entitlements", effectively rendering the exercise a waste of time with a knonw political reality. Governments have no stomach for hard reforms where there is a high political risk to their maintenance of power.

The Australian government, under Kevin Rudd and now Julia Gillard, seems extraordinarily inept, and unaware of what it takes to govern effectively with precision and foresight. Add their inadequacies to the state governments, and their own bureaucracies, and Austraia finds itself in the fgrip of debilitating and dangerous mediocrity.

Numbers casually fly around. The media says the report recommends actions that will wipe $A1 billion of our food production, cause wide spread regional unemployment and the demise of regional towns and cites. The same theoretically based assumptions that are used to sell other failed privatisation policies, the creation of new industries and opportunities, more training and the other motherhood ideas that are now truly discredited but still trotted out by the planners, and politicians, still abound. The review period of one year will allow for more bulldust, rumpour mongering and stupidity to emerge, as Australia finds itself at the mercy of the social engineering ideological shapers. Apparently we must all suffer a lower level of life style and curb our excesses in the name of "the environment" and the valuable wet lands and other precious sanctuaries that the greater number of people have never visited, never will and know little about. Welcome to another labor induced farcical circus.

The proposed carbon pricing, and water policies, energy and other ideas of Australia's governments and dominant interests, will
cost the people of Australia, personally, billions. It will result in Australia becoming a nett importer of food.(Kevin R Beck, Melbourne Australia, October 2010)


September 2010: THE CON REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS

I PREDICT THAT YOU SHOULD ADD $A3,000 plus per year to your energy bills and another $A5,000 to your living costs in 2011 - 2013 adn lower your exposure to housing and property.
Click here.

Predictions


The Australian labor party, and the Australian Greens, continually point to horrific numbers for the economic impact of climate change. They talk in the billions. They postulate events anywhere from a few years to decades even fifty years adn 200 years. The economic studies used to justify these claims incorporate the use of a discount factor. The value of $A1.00 today at a future period in time. The lower the discount factor and the longer the period, the greater the cost claims will be. The higher the discount factor, the lower the cost. Thus what rate is used in Stern? (1.4%). The opportunity cost of capital is fundamental to climate change amelioration decisions, and is a ignificant input to a discounted cash flow analysis. Small changes in the discount rate may have a big impact on the Net Present Value (and Internal Rate of Return) of action under Climate Change. If the selected discount rate is too high, otentially the cost around climate change appears bad, and if too low, climate change investments will look attractive.

The Australian Productivity Commission uses a discount factor of 4%. Why the variation between the two? The answer is obvious. It is probably easier, and less costly, for the community to defer the economic activity around climate change until when the event occurs and then it is funded and dealt with. The doomsday sayers would not like this. Now it is not climate change it is carbon. Crbon is the enemy. Well that is not true either.

"n a molecular level, carbon is a wonderful chemical joiner. Seemingly without prejudice, carbon atoms will combine with almost any other element to form the more complicated building blocks of life. "It's atomic Velcro," says Roston. (The Carbon Age: How Life's Core Element Has Become Civilization's Greatest Threat, May 26, 2009_ - In Time Magazine, GOING GREEN Why Carbon Is Not a Bad Word, By Bryan Walsh Sunday, Jul. 27, 2008: Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1826813,00.html#ixzz0y959pdqW Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1826813,00.html#ixzz0y94NvdgA). Now the go is a price on carbon. Are they mad? I think that the proponents of a carbon tax have little idea as to what they are proposing or its effects. The plastics that can be found in everything from your chair to the space shuttle contain carbon — as does, of course, our energy supply. Thus everything just about will be taxed. This will add billions to the cost of living in a modern society. They want an end to carbon, then they want an end to life.

Governments in Austarlia mandated that energy suppliers have to build 2% or more renewable sources into their supply agreements. The cost of a megawatt of wind energy, in Australia, today is circa $A70.00. This is eight to ten times dearer than a megawatt of fossil brown fuel. The renewable projects in Australia are going broke because they need a lot more than $A70.000 a megawatt to fund their activities. Kevin R Beck, Melbourne Australia



July 2010: AUSTRALIA - QUESTIONING MS GILLARD'S CAPABILITIES
An
election based on false beliefs, spin and brazen misinformation.


The Prime Minister, Ms Julia Gillard, told us that labor will legislate so that no dirty coal power stations will be built in the future. Thus we see the bias. She states that coal power stations will have to be retrofiited and any new station will have to meet stringent "clean coal" regulations. This, according to her limited knowledge, will include sequestration, carbon capture. In the same package of inane proposition is a billion dollars for national grid development to ensure that renewables raised in the remote parts of the country will be efficiently delivered to the population centres. A billion dolllars will barley pay for a transmission line of a few hundred kilometres let alone a web delivering the fantasies of a fevered, singular political mind in seek of governmment. Never mind that carbon sequestration is not proven, may do nasty things to the underworld, and will be mightily expensive and never mind that the, ill informed, consumers will suffer energy price rises of 300% or higher if such policies are implemented. Also never mind that she tells furphies when she says that the temperature of the earth is rising. It is not warming, it is getting coller.

In this poorly thought out policy set a whole community, in the Latrobe Valley, of Victoria will be put to th sword again. They were subjected to pillage in 1992 when labor, and liberal, governments privatised the Victorian power industry in pursuit of the nebulous, and contrived, national grid. They also misrepresented facts and to my mind lied to the community. Everyone who had an interest in ensuring that happened bent the facts and the truth, withhled information and stifled debate. What will happen when the Australian nation realises that it needs more energy that only coal stations can supply? It will be too late to plan and build them, much like the failure to build dams and other infrastructure. We will have to build more and more gas using up a smaller finite resource. There is also the problem that power supply is the province of the states and not the federal government. Ms Gillard has already shown that she, and her agents, are inept at delivery of things. Ms Gillard has learnt nothing from the Rudd exercise, the propensity to spin and engage in hollow endless rhetoric. Her arsenal of offerings in this election are not solid policies, they are hedging words and dissembling nonsense.

Ms Gilllard's propositions for these policies start from a flawed base, carbon is bad. The greens are hysterical in their hatred of carbon and coal. They border on mental paranoia. Ms Gillar is wring when she implies that climate change science is a given, in favour of her perspectives, and that the world is warming. A woman in Sydney, featured in the Australian newspaper, Saturday 24 July 2010, pictured in her garden, says that everyone can have solar and there will, in her opinion, be no need for another power station. This demonstrates the basic ignorance of many people in the community, about energy, electricity and transmission, particularly those besotted with the romantic notion of self sustaining, clean living. Residential energy (gas and electricity) uses a miniscule of a state, and a nation's, energy output. Putting solar in all houses has a minor impact on emissions. What jobs will her community have without industrial energy and carbon fossil fuel and commodities? Ms. Gillard plans a community assembly of 150 people drawn from the electoral role, to study climate change for a year and reach a concensus. What drivel. They will not reach a concensus unless they all are chosen from a single mind set demographic. The average person is not capable of assimililating
the complex science and its off shoot disciplines and tentacles. Such requires not only theory ut also practical knowledge and experience. It is obvious that Ms Gillard has no knowledge of the actual process of producing electricity and the attendant technologies. Kate Carnell, ex Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory, and now an industry association spokesperson, wants industry representation in the citizen's assembly. If there has to be an assembly then they should not get a seat because industry has a set agenda, the representative will be a pawn and industry associations have many ways of prosecuting their case. It is the loud interest groups that have derailed the debate to date and put about the falsehoods.

Writing of falsehoods, consider liberal opposition in the federal parliament, Andrew Robb, who laughingly says that there is a citizen's assemblyalready, the parliament. As if the Australian parliament is representative of the people! The parliaments of Australia are "managed, corrupted and corroded" institutions, the playground of a handful of political power brokers and manipulators, with questionable morals and ethics. They are detached from the ordinary ctizen and he may well ponder that the people generally have no respect for politicians and political party apparatchiks. The two political parties decide who will be the majority representatives, in our assemblies, and once in parliament those representaatives must follow the party line and decisions. Thus we enetr another week of weasle words and filibuster. A small Australia suits the small minded.



2010: Australia's Proposed Emission Trading Scheme (Rudd labor government 2007 - 2010)


The Campaign To Stop The ETS


Oh Minister, Penny Wong It's Not True

"One of the enduring pillars of the climate change issue is that the temperature of the Earth is increasing at an unprecedented rate … we’ve heard it a million times over the past few decades. However, it is well known that the temperature of the Earth has not increased over the past decade, and the lack of recent warming is now receiving serious consideration in the leading scientific journals." (Source: World Climate Report, February 1, 2010)


Counter DIGITS.com:All networked sites, forums and blogs




HOW LONG HAS AUSTRALIA'S FEDERAL GOVERNMENT KNOWN?

As 2009 ends Kevin Rudd's attempt to walk the world stage on climate change and to create an ETS will fall into tatters and he will abandon his "moral imperative" demonstrating the paucity of his commitment and his stamina.

The Australian federal government, lead by Prime MInister Kevin Rudd, has long used selective data to justify its position and policy on Emissions Trading. He has been disingenous in his statements and ridiculed those who would question him and the glass house he has built. This Prime Minister has no idea of the intricacies and the forces that confront him on his crusade. Kevin Rudd will be proven to be a hollow conviction politician. A caricature to be derided for his insults to those who can think without being directed. Kevin Rudd's staff are as bereft of the cominh events as he is. Bye bye to Rudd's climate change and the ETS.

The question arises as to how long has the Prime Minister, The Climate Change Minister Penny Wong and the Environment Minister, Peter Garrett, known that what they were telling us was, and is, not true. Now their cover is blown they are somewhat silent. Perhaps they are in shell shock, or damage mode, as we
take apart their theories, arguments and plans, expsoing their mendacity. What are the several hundred new public servants within the Climate Change Department doing if the bedrock of the government's justification has melted? What are the Australian state's, and territories, new positions, and policies, on climate change and the unravelling of their own rubbish policies and justfications? I expect that the labor party Ministers at federal, state and territory levels will act as if nothing has changed and will be pig headed in their pursuit of their own ideology and views. They will spin, at every turn, creating an illusion of never having made a mistake. (Kevin R Beck, February 2010)



"The ice melt across during the Antarctic summer (October-January) of 2008-2009 was the lowest ever recorded in the satellite history. Such was the finding reported last week by Marco Tedesco and Andrew Monaghan in the journal Geophysical Research Letters: A 30-year minimum Antarctic snowmelt record occurred during austral summer 2008–2009 according to spaceborne microwave observations for 1980–2009" (Source:
World Climate Report, October 6, 2009)

"UN science report which stated Himalayan glaciers would melt within 25 years 'was a guess' By DAVID DERBYSHIRE, 18th January 2010

Claims by the world's leading climate scientists that most of the Himalayan glaciers will vanish within 25 years were last night exposed as nonsense. The alarmist warning appeared two years ago in a highly influential report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. At the time the IPCC insisted that its report contained the latest and most detailed evidence yet of the risks of man-made climate change to the planet."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1243963/UN-science-report-stated-Himalayan-glaciers-melt-25-years-guess.html#ixzz0cw1TMdZF" (Source: Mail Online: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1243963/UN-science-report-stated-Himalayan-glaciers-melt-25-years-guess.html)

Here in Australia, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Climate Change Minister, Senator Penny Wong and Environment Minister, Peter Garrett, have all claimed the science and evidence based fact for their arguments and dire predictions.

Inter alia, "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104" (Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm)

"We're already seeing changes. Glaciers are melting,... Cliamte Crisis, http://www.climatecrisis.net/climate-change.php)

The Australian labor government based their claims of a need for an Emissions Trading Scheme in Australia on the science of climate change and the evil demon - carbon. In the parliaments they have cast asperions on the integrity of people and issued insulting remarks. Now these three are silent. Thweir spin doctors and parastic manipulators of truh amd fact are working on a new fiction to extract the Prime Minister and two Ministers from an embarrassing situation. Denigrating those who questioned them or dismissive in their attitudes they are being shown to have been gullible. Very busy people, relyting on others, and simply swallowing the tripe put before them. The reserachers in the Australian Department of Climate Change should surely be questioned as to their reserach, and analysis, capabilities and indepndent thinking capacities. (Kevin R Beck, January 2010)

" ClimateGate's Michael Mann Received Stimulus Funds

By NOEL SHEPPARD From the Media Research Center A scientist in the middle of the ClimateGate scandal received economic stimulus funds last June. As NewsBusters reported on November 28, Penn State University is investigating Professor Michael Mann, the creator of the discredited "Hockey Stick Graph," for his involvement in an international attempt to exaggerate and manipulate climate data in order to advance the myth of manmade global warming. According to the conservative think tank the National Center for Public Policy Research, Mann received $541,184 in economic stimulus funds last June to conduct climate change research. With this in mind, NCPPR issued a press release Thursday asking for these funds to be returned: In the face of rising unemployment and record-breaking deficits, policy experts at the National Center for Public Policy Research are criticizing the Obama Administration for awarding a half million dollar grant from the economic stimulus package to Penn State Professor Michael Mann, a key figure in the Climategate controversy. " (Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703657604575005412584751830.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

JANUARY 16TH, 2010 16:50, Climategate goes American: NOAA, GISS and the mystery of the vanishing weather stations (Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/jamesdelingpole/)

ANUARY 14TH, 2010 23:19, Dodgy GISS temperature records exposed: the US Climategate? (Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/jamesdelingpole/)

JANUARY 14TH, 2010 9:56, 'AGW? I refute it THUS!': Central England Temperatures 1659 to 2009 (Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/jamesdelingpole/)

The collateral damage from the emails is large
ClimateGate doesn’t just bring down the scientists who wrote the emails, it brings down all the institutions and organizations that were supposed to have exacting standards and ought to have exposed the crimes years ago. The men whose work was so bogus, were lauded by the IPCC, published in Nature and Science, and defended by the National Academy of Science. This evidence of collusion, falsification, hiding data, and consistent deceit blows away the infrastructures of the practice of science. It doesn’t hurt the scientific method, but it destroys the premise that the IPCC expert review means anything, that peer review is capable of even picking up outright fraud, and that the National Academy of Science is functional. …the journals, the famous peer review, the committees with international reviewers: they have also been exposed as corrupted. In other words, all the human processes of science, the journals, the famous peer review, the committees with international reviewers: they have also been exposed as corrupted to some degree." (Source: The ClimateGate Virus, http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/the-climategate-virus/)



WHO'S COOKING THE BOOKS?





Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says that the outcome of the Copenhagen meeting is substantial. There is agreement to keep global warming at 2 dgrees. Who thought up this figure and how accurate is it?

"On Tuesday, we heard via the Ria Novosti agency that the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change had probably tampered with Russian-climate data:

The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory. Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country’s territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports. Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations. The data of stations located in areas not listed in the Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature UK (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The HadCRUT database includes specific stations providing incomplete data and highlighting the global-warming process, rather than stations facilitating uninterrupted observations. They concluded climatologists use the incomplete findings of meteorological stations far more often than those providing complete observations and data from stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban-warming effect more frequently than the correct data of remote stations.

Paint-by-Numbers Science

Imagine a paint-by-numbers kit with 12 colors of the spectrum — from purple and blue, green to yellow, orange and red, each numbered. When you finish coloring the areas in the coloring book or canvas with the appropriate color number, you have a color painting for the fridge. Suppose you got a version with only the number 1 and 2 colors marked. You have the colors — but what you end up with is a patchwork of two colors on a white background, with lines defining other areas. You could guess about the other colors, but the end result may not be what the original creator had in mind. Believe it or not, this very simple analogy applies to the claims of global warming....

And NASA uses the GHCN, applying their own adjustments, as we reported in this story: Perhaps one of the biggest issues with the global data is station dropout after 1990. Over 6000 stations were active in the mid-1990s. Just over 1000 are in use today. The stations that dropped out were mainly rural and at higher latitudes and altitudes — all cooler stations. This alone should account for part of the assessed warming. China had 100 stations in 1950, over 400 in 1960, then only 25 by 1990. This changing distribution makes any assessment of accurate change impossible." (Source: Climategate: … And Just Like That, the Warming’s Gone (PJM Exclusive) The Russian paint-by-numbers data. The CRU data matching NOAA and NASA. What's left?, December 17, 2009 - by Joseph D'Aleo, James Delingpole, in the Telegraph, noted Wednesday: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/daleo-and-just-like-that-the-warmings-gone-pjm-exclusive/)



POLITICIANS ARROGANCE AND HUBRIS

The leaders of the world, at the Copenhagen Climate talks, in December 2009, have decided that they will alter the future of the world by keeping global warming at, or below, 2 degrees. What arrogance is this that they think that they are capable of harnessing, and controlling, the natural order of things. To bring the planet to heel. Who arrived at this figure and how? There comes a time when we have to ask our political leaders, and perhaps ourselves, what is the extent of hubris, that man would assume they are the greatest impact, and influence, on this earth. What arrogance to to assume the power of the God being in their puny activities on this earth? (Kevin R Beck, December 2009)



Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong Bungle ETS

Did they deliberately set out to mislead us?


It is not clear how Kevin Rudd arrives at strategy and who has influence? It is clear that the Australian labor party, or for that matter also the liberal, national and greens parties, have substandard intelligence gathering networks and systems. If the labor party had a sophisticated mechanism in place then they would not have been blindsided by Tony Abbott. They would also be well aware that the Australian electorate is not on board with the government's ETS (Emission Trading Scheme). They would also have a better understanding as to where to gather their information and identify the protagonists and the barrier creationists.

The government's Emission Trading Scheme is under serious threat internally within Australia. Climate Change and Water Minister, Senator Penny Wong, has not covered all the bases and has failed to clearlt articulate the scheme. To simply put a "spin" argument on the web purporting to be a full justification is not the manner in which this issue should be approached. There are hidden forces, and interests, who intend to stymy and kill off the government's ETS.

The process adopted by Kevin Rudd, regarding policy development is a myopic and bureaucratic one. The Australian media has focused on Mr Rudd's propensity for the "research and enquiry" based approach. What they have not looked at are the pitfalls in this approach. The practically oriented, invariably those who may have little regard for, or little deeper education, may eschew Mr Rudd's approach. They may prefer historical experience

"If practitioners shun theory then they must rely on experience as a guide to action. In deciding on their response to a problem they draw on a range of options suggested by previous experience with that type of issue. However, “it is wishful thinking to assume that experience alone will teach leaders everything they need to know” (Copland et al, 2002, p. 75)." (in Theories of Educational Management, Tony Bush, http://cnx.org/content/m13867/latest/)

The Climate Change Department of the Commonwealth government may have failed the Senator in its role since it is a new and powerfulk department at the apex of government policy. What has been the focus of this agency?

"Niskanen argues that the size of the discretionary budget (Y) reflects the reward structure in the bureaucratic environment...Niskanen begins by showing that bureaucrats maximize personal utility (wages and perks) by maximising the agency's budget. Actually, he corrects this statement. Instead: bureaucrats maximise objectives defined in terms of the agency's discretionary budget. (The discretionary budget is the difference between the budget parliament gives and the cost to the agency of producing its output)." (Source: Niskanen: Bureaucrats and politicians, Journal of Law and Economics 18 (December): 617-43.)

"In an address to senior public servants in April 2008, the Prime Minister observed that, ‘evidence-based policy-making is at the heart of being a reformist government’. I want to explore why that is profoundly true; what it means in practice, and some implications for those of us in public administration. In doing so, I will draw on the experience of the Productivity Commission—which with its predecessors has been at the heart of evidence- based policy-making in Australia for over three decades—to distil some insights into what is needed across government generally if we are to be successful.

It is as important that we have a rigorous, evidence-based approach to public policy in Australia today as at any time in our history. This country faces major long-term challenges; challenges that have only been exacerbated by the economic turbulence that we are struggling to deal with right now. When the present crisis is over, we will still have the ongoing challenges of greenhouse, the ageing of our population and continuing international competitive pressures. We should not underestimate the significance of those challenges, which place a premium on enhancing the efficiency and productivity of our economy." (Source of extract: Contemporary Government Challenges Challenges of evidence-based policy-making, Gary Banks AO, Australian Public Service Commission, http://www.apsc.gov.au/publications09/evidencebasedpolicy.htm)

Thus we might say that the Prime Minister is more academic than bureaucrat, though there are overlaps in the profile of each type. In the case of the Australian ETS proposal there is little evidence to show that the examination, and choice, of this particular mechanism (ETS) to address climate change was academically, bureaucratically or politically astute. Because a topic is complex and detailed, that should not mean that there is no attempt to explain it. The government's behaviour in ths regard bears examination and demands explanation.

The Honourable Minister, Senator Wong, appeared to my mind to speak all too often in generalities bristling with political barbs. Then the government, and particularly, Mr Rudd and Ms Wong, intertwine Climate Change and the ETS as if they are homogenous and synonymous. This is not merely disingenuous it bordres on both misrepresentation and questionable behaviour. The ETS has nothing to do with climate change. The ETS is a contrived (creatd) market instrument. The theory is that price and market forces bring about Emissions reduction, investment in renewable energy and changes in behaviour.

"ETS will kill Tourism, Transport and Trade, By Viv Forbes Saturday, Canada Free Press, September 12, 2009

Emissions trading schemes proposed for the western world will guarantee another global financial crisis for tourism, transport and world trade. All carbon control schemes have at their core two essential features aimed at reducing man’s production of the harmless gas, carbon dioxide. Firstly, increasingly severe rationing of carbon dioxide (CO2) releases. And secondly, taxes on all permitted Emissions and punitive taxes on any excess. They are all Ration-and-Tax Schemes and they will all enforce arbitrary reductions by 2020. But not one car, truck, bus, train, plane or ship can move without producing CO2. There is no possibility that this will change significantly before the doomsday year of 2020, just a decade away. Therefore neither Australia nor New Zealand can cut CO2 Emissions by 2020 without slowly strangling all those industries that rely on moving people or goods.

Our politicians should be asked, individually, what food, mineral products and travel they propose doing without in order to meet the 2020 cuts specified in their Ration-and-Tax Schemes.

Australia and New Zealand comprise four lonely islands in the vast southern oceans which stretch from Africa to South America However, world population, political power and finance are concentrated far away in the Northern Hemisphere.

Apart from a few stock horses used by drovers, the occasional sailing yacht, some suburban bicycles and some hydro power that moves trains, our transport fleets rely totally on petrol, diesel, gas and coal. There are no solar powered aeroplanes or sail powered ocean liners – all produce CO2. Neither country can import tourists, get mineral and food products to their cities or export goods to world markets without producing CO2." (Source of extract as cited, An Honest Climate Debate, Exposing the truth about the Man-Made Climate Change theory, http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2009/09/16/ets-will-kill-tourism-transport-and-trade/)



Australia November 2009: RUDD LABOR GOVERNMENT DOES NOT MAKE IT EASY TO UNDERSTAND THEIR ARGUMENTS AND POLICIES





"ETS passes first hurdle

16 November 2009 | 08:25:03 PM | Source: AAP,

Agriculture will be excluded from the ETS. (AAP)

Australia has moved one step closer to having an Emissions trading scheme after draft laws passed the lower house, as the government hinted there was more room to move on the coalition's wishlist of changes. Government backflip on Emissions Govt and coalition strike first ETS deal Greens attack ETS deal as poll shows public want greater cut As widely expected, the controversial carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS) passed the lower house on Monday after the government used its numbers to push it through. With the legislation now moving to the Senate, where the real debate begins, the most important negotiations continue to be played out behind closed doors. Climate Change Minister Penny Wong and the coalition's negotiator, Ian Macfarlane, remain locked in negotiations even as the legislation moves through the parliament. It's going down to the wire, with meetings planned for this week and not ruled out for the next. But the odds of a positive outcome appear to have firmed. Senator Wong is not ruling out additional concessions after conceding to a major coalition request on the weekend to remove agriculture from the scheme. (Source: SBS Australia, http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1132837/latest-from-wire/)

" Lib MPs offer to quit over Malcolm Turnbull's ETS strategy

Samantha Maiden, Online Political Editor From: The Australian November 25, 2009 12:03PM

THREE junior Liberal frontbenchers have offered their resignations in the latest wildcat action against Malcolm Turnbull's leadership. As Mr Turnbull prepares to call for a show of hands on a leadership spill today, in an attempt to knock the leadership issue on the head, The Australian Online understands Matthias Cormann, Mitch Fifield and Brett Mason have offered to quit. Mr Turnbull has not accepted their resignations. The Coalition leader has challenged MPs to call on a leadership spill at a lunchtime party room meeting. But senior figures expect a show of hands will determine not to pursue the matter, stopping Kevin Andrews leadership tilt in its tracks. The Australian Online understands Mr Turnbull will not declare the leadership vacant. He will ask for a show of hands on whether the partyroom wants a leadership contest. Liberal frontbenchers believe MPs will not vote for a leadership spill at this time." (Source: The Australian November 25, 2009 - http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/lib-mps-offer-to-quit-over-malcolm-turnbulls-ets-strategy/story-e6frgczf-1225803641304)

" Malcolm Turnbull compared to Robert Mugabe as Liberal anger over ETS boils over

AAP From: AAP November 25, 2009 9:31AM

(1 vote) Opposition against leadership spill Malcolm Turnbull has survived an attempt by his critics to bring down his leadership. Views today: 164 UPDATE 2.40pm: A FEDERAL Liberal MP has compared Malcolm Turnbull to Zimbabwe dictator Robert Mugabe. Peter Slipper made the comments after the opposition leader declared the joint parties room had accepted coalition amendments to Labor's Emissions trading scheme (ETS). "The leader last night was about as dodgy as a Zimbabwean election organised by Robert Mugabe,'' Mr Slipper told reporters in Canberra this morning. "I don't want to make any comment other than that.'' Mr Turnbull survived by a narrow margin this afternoon, when a secret ballot of Liberal MPs to decide on a leadership spill saw a leadership motion defeated by 48 to 35." (Source: Herald Sun, Melbourne, http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-compared-to-robert-mugabe-as-liberal-anger-over-ets-boils-over/story-e6frf7jo-1225803552474)

" ETS deal - Bob Brown,

A 'cave-in to the big polluters'. That's how Greens leader Bob Brown describes the revamped ETS deal. He's critical of the amended Emissions Trading legislation, saying it's too generous to polluters. The Coalition secured an extra $7 billion in industry assistance over 10 years and much of the extra cash will go to the coal sector and electricity generators. Bob Brown says the government and the opposition have delivered a Polluters PayDay." (Source: ABC Australia, http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2009/2752619.htm)



Australia (commentary by Kevin R Beck) We can ignore the convoluted, and irksome presentation style, and language, of the Prime Minister, hopefully looking to the essence of the message however this is difficult. Moreso when it involves a significant issue. Almost every statement from the newer generation (2009) of labor governemnt Ministers, not the seasoned ones such as Simon Crean, John Faulkner, Lindsay Tanner, to name a few, is peppered with insults, smart commentary, and metaphors. Words that largely seek to degrade rather than inform or a tortured evasive presentation. Then there is the 'echo" whereby the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister trot out the same sentences by rote. They carry the spin doctor's message" to us all, in every interview, causing a nauseous bile to rise. Do they not have independent thoughts of their own? What constituency do these people represent? Those who elected them or their political party? The answer is readily apparent. The latter.

Take for example the Minister for Climate Change, Penny Wong's diatribe some months back, in response to the Oppositions proposals for a reworked Emissions Trading Scheme, or Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (they cannot get a single name for it) - she called it a "mongrel". This choice of words may hark back to her past working job as an industrial lawyer, take no prisoners, give no ground, or it may be a product of her deeper character traits. Whatever the reason, when she resorts to crass and worthless metaphors, that have no substance, she demeans her highly educated articulate self. She instead presents as a Minister more interested in head kicking than assisting the electorate to understand the very complex issue. This may be all very entertaining for a moribund narrow minded media and political commentators, but it is rather irelevant to the wider electorate.

The Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd, has a penchant for trying to be witty with metaphors. It does not help that Senator Xenophon started the animal references when he referred to the labor ETS policy as a "dog". However he is not a federal Minister though we can expect more and he might in future show us that he is capable of higher level language skills also.

Frontier Economics undertook the
study for the liberal party and independent senator Nick Xenophon.

Extract "Wong attacks Turnbull's 'mongrel' Emissions trading plan
Christian Kerr | August 10, 2009, The Australian
CLIMATE Change Minister Penny Wong has accused Malcolm Turnbull of rehashing failed overseas policy in a "mongrel" Emissions trading proposal that would not tackle climate change. Turnbull's lean, green environment... The Opposition claims its alternative scheme to tackle climate change will be cheaper and greener... In a feisty response to Mr Turnbull's argument for changes to the Government's legislation, Senator Wong warned that the Government would push on with its CPRS plan “for as long as we have to”. (source: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25908313-601,00.html)

Feisty? I would call it puerile if she was a boy and immature grabage for a senior Minister of the Crown. Kevin Rudd presents no better example or carefully articulated response in the parliament on August 11, 2009.

"Mr Rudd used question time to claim the Opposition was seeking to hide its own divisions. "They are not united by a policy on climate change, they are united in their opposition to our policy on climate change,'' the Prime Minister said. He said Mr Turnbull's alternative scheme was ``an absolute, rolled gold, unreconstructed Liberal party magic pudding". (Source: Kevin Rudd exploits Coalition's Emissions trading 'disunity', Christian Kerr | August 11, 2009, Extract from an article in The Australian - KEVIN Rudd has accused the Coalition of trying to buy time over the Emissions trading scheme - http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25915387-5013871,00.html).

Did he think up this smart response all by himself or is it a product from his spin meister advisers? Regardless it is inane. It adds no value and demonstrates the quality of debate in our federal parliament. Never mind that Independent Senator Nick Xenopohon funded the Frontier Economics study with the liberal party. The Prime Minister, and Minister, are too mealy mouthed and insulting to give him the time of day or acknowledgement, except when they need his vote in the Senate. They also insult Frontier Economics, but hey that is politics and their political objectives, ideas and opinions, carry higher status, and worth, don't they?

This ia very complex, and unclear science, and a major economic impacting piece of legislation. Yet the way the Prime Minister approaches the task of getting his "political strategy" through is to ram it and hammer, as if we are just side line players in some facade that passes for democratic government and professional politics. The majority of Australians may well think - a pox on both the liberal, and labor parties, in parliaments across the nation. This labor policy will destroy jobs, comunity and sectors of the Australian economy, all in the name of political ideology, some crystal ball gazing and the nurturing of a war within the science fraternity.


AUSTRALIAN SENATOR STEVE FIELDING CREDIBLE PARLIAMENTARY PERFORMER ON CLIMATE CHANGE


If Australians are looking for an independent source, with little vested political interest, on the climate change debate then they could probably look no farther than the Senator Steve Fielding, who used his own funds and time, to travel internationally to try and discern credible arguments on climate change.

" Australia is really yet to have the debate about what is driving climate change. For years I believed, like most of us, that man made carbon dioxide Emissions were the main cause of global warming. However, over the last few months after speaking to a number of scientists both here and overseas I have discovered the science on both sides of the debate isn’t conclusive. The government needs to explain to the Australian people why global temperatures have remained steady over the last 10-15 years despite skyrocketing man made carbon Emissions." (Senator Fielding)

He has no peer in the Australian parliament in this regard. He is former engineer and has approached his task methodically. This probably irks the charismatic, but perhaps lesser informed, or open minded, Minister for Climate Change Ms. Penny Wong who prefers to talk in generalities, doomsday theories and language. She has a
brand new department engaged in publishing papers reporting doomsday scenarios for Melbourn'es heritage Buildings. This is trite, and shallow, rubbish that the government is serving up through its spin machines which now involve using government agencies. It should stick to substantial matters which are on its web site rather than sensational material supporting political agendas.

To have a look at Senator Fielding's material,
click here.




Commentary by Kevin R Beck

March 2009: Australian government Minister Wong has released the government's
Emission Trading Scheme draft legislation.

In the climate change debate is further clouded by the hysterical, and unfounded statements, of Green Senators in the federal and state parliaments, their supporters and delibeate misleading political partisan propositions. The business interests are not likely to examine the benefits in the cold light of public interest preferring to frame their responses for self interest cloaked in emotive spin, like loss of jobs, fear mongering and holier than thou, hand on heart take the money and run. We know this methodology from the current behaviour of manufacturers abandoning ship in Australia whilst trying to suck up every last public dollar or demanding public funds to hang around.

The greater number of people, in Australia, simply take little interest in anything to do with public policy and government unless it directly affects them. In Victoria we have the state government saying that they will invest a $A100 million, provided the federal government matches that amount, to build a solar power station. This wonder of technology will serve 50,000 residences. This is the sort of suspect justified, irresponsible propositions put about by politicians who want to get on the climate change band wagon and spruik their credentials. This, like Victoria's energy hungry multi billion dollar,
desalination plant is a gross waste of public money.


December 2008: The Australian labor government unveils climate change ETS scheme

The Australian government plan calls for a minimum 5% reduction in greenhouse Emissions within a range up to 15% by 2020. The 5% is easily achievable for Australia's energy generators including brown, and black coal, power stations. There need be no major cost increase upon consumers becaue of this scheme but they will try and use this to increase their revenue charges claimimg the ETS as a justification. The energy regulators, in the states and the National Electricity Market, will need to be well versed and also be vigilant.

In Victoria Australia the largest generation base is in the brown coal laden Latrobe Valley. Here the greatest impost may occur because brown coal is one of the hardest fuels to burn. The effeciency of power stations varies but is at the low end. Economics plays a big role in decisions and one power station may opt for megawatts output, when they refurbish turbines and boilers, with trade offs against efficiency because they want to make money from the electricity market. It is efficiency that will affect the Emissions. One of the oldest stations in the Valley has markedly improved its efficiency. At the other end of the scale it appears that one of the generators hardly tries to improve efficiency. Perhaps the owners are not inclined to spend money?

One issue that must be addressed in the oevrall national approach is to bring the disparate state scehemes into kine or shut them down. There is much inconsistency between the states and their schemes and within this is volatility, and morbidity, of the price of credits. The NSW gas scheme has seen the value of a tonne of carbon offset drop from $A14.00 to about $A5.00 due to very poor regulatory oversight and general gaming. For example the replacement of traditional light bulbs with new incandescent globes. Working the system has enabled the price of credit to be impacted due to the timeframes allowed for the globes impact in to the market.

There is low, if any, inducemnet to invest in renewables as credit unit values have declined there also. There was a rush by state government agencies, without adequate planning and understanding, to get into the trendy emisssions trading market. It was sexy and new. These failures and poor management must be avoided. The state public services cannot be relied upon to be innovative or at the cutting edge. The capping of a tonne at $A40.00 under the Australian government plan provides a valuable guide when looked at in terms of the context. Now we can wait for the bleating, misrepresentation, gaming and cries of foul and threats to emanate.



September 2008: If Kevin Rudd and the labor party in Australia's federal government go ahead with their planned carbon reduction scheme (with a target that is even remotely demanded by the environmenalists and proponents) scheduled for 2010 they will wreck Australia's economy and leave a mark more indelible than the recession Australia had to have under Paul Keating.

Brendan Nelson, may be a bumbling liberal leader but essentially he is right in trying to preach caution and block labor's moves. Rudd's team are the sheep, following the latest fad, at the front of the (crack pot) pack who will blindly run over the cliff taking the gullible voters with them. It is now imperative, as never before, that those with the capacity to resist, and block, engage Kevin Rudd and the labor government, the Greens and the greenies, and ideologs, in a war of attrition like no other ever seen in the nation before.

This is not about politics and simple resistance or activism. This is about survival economically and socially, defying the efforts, and actions, of people who colllectively have never created anything. They are theorists and academics. politicians of zeal and ideology whose beliefs, and passions, are extremely dangerous. Out to save a world that does not need saving. They are not experts, in any shape or form, and they have never accurately
predicted anything. They have at their disposal a public service, detached from reality, commissioned to serve. This public service is imbued with the code of serving the government of the day without question. They serve Ministers whose backgrounds, experiences and credentials, are not diverzse and congisant of the peril to whihc they are takin g us. We must draw on our own experiences and resources to resist, block and if necessary destroy their resolve and strategies. If the Rudd labor government spends a million or more on advertising their view points about the ETS (carbon reduction) then they should also fund counter opinions in the interest of the nation.





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AUSTRALIA - CARBON POLLUTION REDUCTION SCHEME GREEN PAPER


Department of Climate Change, Australian Government, The Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Green Paper canvasses options and preferred approaches on issues, such as which industry sectors will be covered and how Emission caps will be set. It also includes ways to address the impacts on Australian households, Emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries and other strongly affected sectors.
Click Here



HOODWINKING THE PUBLIC ON CLIMATE CHANGE


Received Email: July 22 July 2008: To Kevin R Beck

With the release of the green paper today you will no doubt pursue recalcitrants who back the doom philosophy of that evil element – carbon. The reference I gave you this morning presents a better approach to reducing the carbon excesses, viz. Ibbotson’s “Newcastle Protocol” instead of “Emissions Trading”, if in fact this is what you may want to do.

You will also realise now, (after reading selected parts of Ibbotson), that anthropogenic CO2 is not even significant in global warming, particularly when you put water vapour into the equation. The experts do not want to talk about this because it is uncontrollable, (non-anthropogenic), and there are no easily available government funds to support the academics and scientists in R&D in this field.

To give you a snapshot of the specious nature and uselessness of this whole exercise I suggest you read some of the papers of Gary Novack.
Click Here

The public is really being hoodwinked and the pollies are sure to strut their stuff in their inimitable and puerile fashion. Do your homework and your platform will be technically unassailable.... Keith



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July 16 2008 Kevin R Beck owner of the Mosaic Portal Web Network:

In Austraklia the debate about climate change has been hijacked by powerful interests that have access to media, resources, parliaments, bureaucracies, business, money and spin shapers. The Australian government lead by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has embraced Kyoto and ably assisted by his senior Minister for Water and Climate, Senator Penny Wong and Minister for the Environment, Peter Garrett, is engaged in not only shaping the policy by the Green Paper issued today but also the knowledge and awareness of the community. The Greens party, lead by the charismatic environmental campiagner, Senator Bob Brown have long championed the rod and birch approach to policy and the fantasy of ethereal solutions such as base load solar power. carbon sequestration is embraced as a panacea along with a myriad of other technological innovations among them clean coal. The Greens find the latter an anathema.

The labor Party has embraced an Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) with a carbon cap and a market permit system underpinned by regulation, control and government funds. If it gets up it will be unique in the world. However it will not be here in 2010. This adoption of an ETS market model is consistent with the economic theories, and writings, of senior labor figures such as Minister Lindsay Tanner. Treasurer Wayne Swan also embraces an ETS though it is unlikely that he has the same level of economic understanding as does Lindsay Tanner and Professor Garnaut, yet he manages the powerful Treasury portfolio. He is fond of homilies suhc as shop around for a dufferent bank when interest rates go up, buy home brand and spot specials in supermarkets and carry a calculator.

The Prime Minister engaged Professor Ross Garnaut, an economist and former diplomat, to research and develop a propositions and options recommendation paper. Modelling, and other core economic and social studies will be carried out by Treasury under his Ministry. Unfortunately the record of the federal Treasury on forecasting is not good. There will be modelling from the Australian Productivity Commission, the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and other interested agencies such as the Department of Environment and a myriad of external aacdemic, think tanks and industry interests as wel as the dooms dayers and freaks.

On the government side this will primarily be a manged public relations exercise with an ETS appended. It is not expected that the Opposition Leader in the Australian Parliament, Dr. Brendan Nelson, and the liberal and national party state leaders, will add all that much value. Dr. Nelson is absorbed with the minutae. he is focused on petrol and a $A0.05 cents reduction per litre, as his foundation argument and action plan. This would deliver the tremendous amount of $A2.00 to $A5.00 a tank depending on whether you are driving a two wheeled dinky thing or a full blown armoured cruiser. Some may buy the Prime Minister's subsidised hybrid car in 2010 which will be out of date or ignore his luxury tax on cliamte freindly cars and spend big. All of this in a society where a great number of people spend a $A100 per week on booze and can forego a drink to pay the igher price without Brendan's magic bullet $o.05cents per litre. In a society where even the lowest income households may have a plasma television and gadget household, and persoanl telecommunications device, rivalling their mortgage. All of this in a society of dodgy under funded public transport wheer it exists among other feats of mediocrity by state governments.

The two most referred authorities, in the Australian media, are Professor Ross Garnaut and Professor Warwick McKibbin. They are listed above in the source links. But what of
John Ibbotson, and the Lighthouses? John Ibbotson has written a rather layman's view of the whole issue of climate change proposing a radical, and far simpler, approach. There is no ETS in his proposition. His publication is "Planning Ahead for Future Generations". It proposes a Newcastle Protocol based on three core elements:
A greenhouse extraction tax at the point of mining
A World Energy Bank
A World energy Standards Body.

I personally do not believe that Australia will have a functional Emission Trading Scheme ready to go in 2010. The legislative drafters, and lawyers, are methodical, slow and the whole thing is very very complicated. It will be a voluminous set rivalling the Australian Taxation Acts. The politics is fraught with quicksand and bog holes. The vested interests are vast, the bureaucracy and the federation is cumbersome and fragmented with its own vested interests agendas, and ideologies, and the nay sayers and game players are well resourced and skilled at dissembling and barrier erection. There is no evidence that the Prime Minister's closest advisers in his office even know the identities of all of the game players, their motivations and capabilities.

The Liberal Party under its federal, and state leadership, has no discernible platform or coherent and consistent policy. Brendan Nelson will likely play devil's advocate, spoiler, sometimes ignorant, with disruption and short term reactionary tactics until stability is achieved after his removal as federal leader. The state liberal and national leaders will similarly assist. The minority Senators in the Australian parliament are not experienced in such complexities, are under resourced and yet will be able to exercise enormous influence since they may control the passage of legislation. Everything wil be refrred to committees in the Upper House Senate Chamber.

The Victorian Labor Party and government have a significant amount to risk and possibly lose with the bulk of energy being produced by brown coal mines and power stations and heavy manufacturing energy guzzlers such as aluminium plus Victorian Premier ohn Brumby's ill conceived salt water environmentally nasty, desalination plant. Then there is Premier Iemma's misfortune, and slide from power, trying to sell his state owned energy assets, in am ajor banking and redit crisis world. NSW has lots of black coal mines. In Queensland there are also lots of black coal mines. There are nasty gas conversion plants are over looked when proponents prattle on about using ever more natural gas for energy generation.

There is a jingle - song that goes "Life is but a dream ... sweet heart." (Kevin R Beck)




Are the experts expert?


Experts are everywhere. Governments and corporations use them, the media, public and private entities. They inhabit universities. They inhabit disciplines. There are a number of prime experts that are driving government policy, thinking and response. Governmment economists (in Treasury and in Finance and Administration) and theorists engaged in climate change and carbon trading. So are they really expert? Philip Tetlock, a psychologist with a Phd from Yale has spent much of his time at the Universities of California, Berkely and Ohio. What makes him unique in the world of academic research is that he has produced a seminal and intensive study of the world of experts, of all types, and assessed whether they are any better at their activity than a novice such as me (KEVINRBECK). Philip has published his research in "Expert Political Judgement: How good is it? How can we know? (Princeton University Press).

His research translates to any society and this case I have compared it to how things work in Australia. The Australian Financial Review published an excellent synopsis (Friday 25 November, 2005, Review 3) of his research in an article written by Paul Monk, who is co-founder of
Austhink Consulting and author of "Thunder from the silent zone: rethinking China". Tetlock's work can be applied to the unflinching claims of the Howard government for its Workplace Relations Reforms, justification of war in Iraq, economic policy, investment in R&D and other pet projects and its ideological pursuit of dross. Similarly it can be used to debunk economic forecasts, political analysis and a host of other "crystal ball" style pronouncements that are used to sell services, dress up stories and drive home points. The research exposes the human tendency to rely on an expert, particularly one with a job that suits and a title to go without. The history of their performance and other traits are never considered nor remembered. He says that "experts are attempting to do with confidence what they demonstrably cannot do very well at all. They make lots of money and kudos from dubious forecasts without ultimate accountability. They are well suited to being politicians particularly Ministers in Australia's governments and consultants and advisers in Australia's top tier companies and public sector enterprises.

They are partisan, rarely admit error or they will give a dozen explanations as to how they got it wrong. Governments, shareholders and businesses lose billions year after year but continue to draw on their services. Monk quotes Tetlock, "we keep running into ideological impasses rooted in each side insisting on being the only judge of its own beliefs and forecasts". Does that have resonance, or sound familiar, in your workplace, communities, in political rhetoric and justification, on television and everywhere? Tetlock found that experts on their home turf made neither better-calibrated nor more discriminating forecasts than did dilettante trespassers. Monk says that Telock found that it made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience in their chosen line of work.

There was no correlation between ideology and accuracy of judgement or precision of forecasting. The experts tended not to adjust their beliefs when the evidence came in but to rationalise or outright deny their errors. Is that familiar too? Seems our politicians have this gene. The dominant danger he concluded was hubris closed mindedness, dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly. Resistance is fierce particularly from those with grand reputations but humble track records.

Tetlock did find that exacting research using scientific and other proven techniques based on solid empirical evidence and statistical analysis and checking, using large volumes of data and input over time did impact on the accuracy and quality. This is the
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